Winter Storm warnings are getting posted now for much of the area. Wrote up a detail discussion on a blog a few days ago. Amounts may need to be adjusted a bit, but overall on target with what is happening: http://www.storm-scope.com/?p=257
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1205 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2011
INZ026-027-033-034-OHZ002-004-015-300115-
/O.NEW.KIWX.WS.W.0004.111129T1900Z-111130T0600Z/
WELLS-ADAMS-BLACKFORD-JAY-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-PAULDING-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...
HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DUNKIRK...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...FAYETTE...SWANTON...DEFIANCE...SHERWOOD...HICKSVILLE...
PAULDING...ANTWERP...MELROSE
1205 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2011
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM
EST WEDNESDAY.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
* RAIN WILL BRIEFLY MIX WITH SLEET AND THEN RAPIDLY SWITCH TO
SNOW. THE SNOW WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES FROM MID AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH OR MORE PER
HOUR POSSIBLE. THUNDERSNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW LOCATIONS
PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES. BY EARLY EVENING 3 TO
6 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARNING AREA...WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 69.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING FOR TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES BY LATE TONIGHT.
IMPACTS...
* SNOW WILL INITIALLY MELT ON WARM ROADS...BUT WILL RAPIDLY BEGIN
TO STICK AND ACCUMULATE AS TEMPERATURES FALL...CAUSING SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMMUTE AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
* HEAVY WET SNOW AND WINDY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING MAY LEAD TO
SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...MIXED
WITH SLEET...ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.
Travel IMPOSSIBLE? Seems unlikely.
That is a basic canned entry in the warning text. I'm sure someone who lives on a gravel road in the area with the heaviest snow will find it near impossible to travel. :)
The immediately Toledo area looks like still a couple of inches, depending on when it changes over. If it goes sooner, much more...later...much less. Melting is a huge factor today with very wet and warm ground. Far western Ohio and near I-69 is probably going to see the amounts need 6 to 8 inches.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2365
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1102 AM CST TUE NOV 29 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN INDIANA...FAR NWRN OHIO AND EXTREME SRN
LOWER MICHIGAN
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 291702Z - 292100Z
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...FIRST IN
CENTRAL AND INTO NRN INDIANA...THEN NWD INTO FAR SRN LOWER MICHIGAN
AROUND MID AFTERNOON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN
THE CHANGEOVER...WITH SNOWFALL RATES NEAR 1 INCH/HOUR THEREAFTER.
VERY DEEP UPPER LOW WAS SITUATED OVER KENTUCKY AND IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT NNEWD INTO OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. INTENSE WARM ADVECTION BETWEEN
650-750 MB WAS OCCURRING WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL/SRN INDIANA
AND WILL BE SHIFTING NWD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER CYCLONE.
ALSO...THE NWD SHIFT OF THE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN COOLING OF THE
ENTIRE VERTICAL COLUMN...AIDING IN RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS DEVELOPING ON THE NORTH END OF THE WARM
ADVECTION...WITH A RECENT LIGHTNING STRIKE IN FAR NWRN OH. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON ALSO SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY BETWEEN 600-350
MB. GIVEN THE MOIST WINTER ENVIRONMENT...PWAT VALUES NEAR .75
INCH...STRONG LIFTING...PLUS THE EXPECTATION FOR AT LEAST WEAK
CONVECTION...SNOWFALL RATES NEAR 1 INCH/HOUR SHOULD DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN INDIANA...AND INTO FAR SRN LOWER MICHIGAN BY
21-22Z.
..IMY.. 11/29/2011
Latest HRRR total snowfall forecast. If colder air mixes in faster, higher amounts could be seeing further east. This is through 2AM EST/1AM CST Wednesday morning.
"Jingle Bells, Jingle Bells, Jingle all the way....."
... all what fun is it ride in a one horse open sleigh...
That rainbow is so beautiful! Apologies to everyone who has to drive in it (stay safe!) but bring on the snowflakes!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2367
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...LOWER MICH / NERN IND / FAR NWRN OH
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 300155Z - 300500Z
HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH/HR ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. THE HEAVIEST RATES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NEWD INTO LOWER
MICH.
01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 999MB LOW NEAR LAKE ONTARIO WITH TEMPS
HOVERING NEAR FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN IND AND SRN LOWER
MICH. A SINGLE HEAVY BAND OF SNOW RESPONSIBLE FOR SNOWFALL RATES
APPROACHING 2 INCHES/HR PER REPORTS NEAR KOSCIUSKO COUNTY
IND...EXTENDS FROM N-CNTRL IND TO SAGINAW BAY. AS THE DEEP LAYER
CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MIGRATE NEWD...SNOWFALL RATES WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE ACROSS NERN IND AS THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW PIVOTS EWD
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY AN EXPERIMENTAL CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODEL ENSEMBLE /SSEO/...WHICH HAS DEPICTED THE
PLACEMENT/INTENSITY OF THE SNOW BAND AND SUBSEQUENT SNOW RATES
RATHER WELL. FARTHER N...THE 00Z DTX RAOB SHOWED OVER 100 J/KG
MUCAPE BASED NEAR 600 MB AND A FEW ISOLD LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED THE PAST FEW HOURS OVER LOWER MICH. THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS /ENHANCED
RATES/ THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE SSEO GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
HEAVIEST RATES /1 INCH PER HOUR/ POSITIONING NEWD FROM THE
OH/IND/MICH VICINITY TO NEAR LAN AND THE I-96/I-69 CORRIDOR AND
POINTS NE...TOWARDS SAGINAW BAY IN THE 03-05Z TIMEFRAME.
..SMITH.. 11/30/2011
I really just don't get why people from this city freak so much about weather. I grew up in warm tropical places with little exposure to this stuff and I am not even half as bothered as natives. I guess weather watching just isnt my thing.
Kimono...I have a keen interest in it, and many tend to as well. The thing that I don't care for is when people just constantly complain it isn't sunny and 70 outside. One thing I always disliked about Ohio...any chance of snow and people go crazy and super negative. It's like...it is Ohio. It is going to snow. If you don't like it, move south. LOL
Anyway, updated snowfall forecast for the rest of the overnight period below.
I don't panic or freak out about weather changes, but I do find some of the science of weather to be interesting.
me too. it's a lot of fun! :)
Hurry!! Everyone go to Kroger's and buy bread and milk!
(Just my old memories of working at foodtown coming back!) lol
Looks like the main snow band is right along and just east of I-69. It is barely moving though so areas of far NE Indiana and Williams, Defiance, and Paulding counties in Ohio could see a good amount of snow out of it. Edge of the main band is roughly from Adrian to Wauseon to Ottawa down to Lima. Would imagine it'll eventually start moving east some as the storm system pulls out. If it kicks out pretty fast and the energy moves far enough away, lift in the air should drop and the precip to come to an end.
So looks like maybe a couple inches just east of the band's current position to about I-75.
Just looked at weatherchannel. About an inch is expected, that's all and tomorrow will be 39 so it will all be gone.
The weather terrorists have failed once again.
You can be a bit extreme, but I will always respect you hockeyfan for what you did for me. You made it possible for me to travel 500+ miles to see my family during my Christmas vacation. Merry Christmas dear friend no matter what you say.
If I could I would put up a holly leaf, and 10 19 year old stripper for you :) I mean that in good jest ;)
If your wife is watching I kid, you husband is a good man and I'm some net nerd making jokes.
hockeyfan might come off as sharp, but deep down TT'ers he really has a heart of gold. He is a man who served his time servicing our country. Now he's just a good man with a good heart. I may not agree with every post he makes, but I do believe he has a good heart no matter what.
Winter Storm Warning for the western sections of the Toledo metro area extended until 4AM as the heavy snow band is now pushing into Fulton County. Snowfall rates should be around an inch an hour as it passes by.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1248 AM EST WED NOV 30 2011
INZ006>009-017-018-025-026-MIZ080-081-OHZ001-002-004-300900-
/O.EXT.KIWX.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-111130T0900Z/
LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-
BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...SHIPSHEWANA...
ANGOLA...FREMONT...KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...ALBION...AUBURN...
GARRETT...COLUMBIA CITY...TRI-LAKES...SOUTH WHITLEY...
FORT WAYNE...NEW HAVEN...HUNTINGTON...ROANOKE...BLUFFTON...
OSSIAN...COLDWATER...BRONSON...HILLSDALE...LITCHFIELD...
JONESVILLE...BRYAN...MONTPELIER...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...FAYETTE...
SWANTON...DEFIANCE...SHERWOOD...HICKSVILLE
1248 AM EST WED NOV 30 2011
...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS
MORNING...
THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY
THIS MORNING.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
* SNOW...MODERATE AT TIMES...WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 3 AM.
SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST INDIANA. FINAL SNOW TOTALS
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL RANGE WIDELY...FROM ABOUT 4 TO AS
MUCH AS 11 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARNING
AREA...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
INDIANA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN.
IMPACTS...
* SNOW WILL CREATE VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
DESPITE THE SNOW ENDING EARLY THIS MORNING...PREPARE FOR A
DIFFICULT WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
* HEAVY WET SNOW AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
POWER OUTAGES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...MIXED
WITH SLEET...ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.
Side note...next shot of accumulating snow looks to be around December 9th and 10th. Nothing major now though from the looks of it.
thanks coffee.
The major problem with message boards is that you can never tell the "mood" of the person posting. I appreciate the kind words. I'm sure that everyone that knows me doesn't love me, but I do try to be a good person and do the right thing.
Well, since we live in the 11th saddest city (see other post) I can pretty well guess the mood of posters...LOL... Thanks for the weather updates, they are very interesting.
INeedCoffee posted at 11:24:44 PM on Nov 29, 2011:hockeyfan might come off as sharp, but deep down TT'ers he really has a heart of gold. He is a man who served his time servicing our country. Now he's just a good man with a good heart. I may not agree with every post he makes, but I do believe he has a good heart no matter what.
In between some of the more cantankerous posts, I have also picked up on the fact that hockeyfan seems to be a good person at heart. ;)
My posts about the weather terrorists was not a criticism about anyone who posts on here about the weather, but rather the newscaster that predicted Sunday night of 4" of snow coming.
How 'bout we force cub reporters into winter "internships" in Buffalo, Rochester, and eastern Ohio so they can see what real snow looks like before hyperventilating on-air about (a) a predicted 4" of snow, then (b) the actual 1" of slush that falls.
Cue to the stock tape of dipshits buying snow shovels and rock salt at Home Depot, with the obligatory dumb ass comments about driving slower and watching for slick spots...