Toledo Talk

Winter Weather Thread 2011-12 Season

Here is an updated thread to cover discussion going through the 2011-12 winter season. I'll update this to include better resources in the main/initial post over time.

Information contained in this thread should not be used as an alternative to weather radios, media, or other means of getting weather warnings/advisories.

_________Northern Indiana Warning Area Map ________________ Cleveland Warning Area Map____

Color Meanings: http://www.weather.gov/wwamap-prd/faq.php

[b]SPC Convection (Severe Weather) Outlooks[/b]

__________ Day 1 ________________ Day 2 _____________________ Day 3 ___________ Days 4 through 8 _____

SPC Mesoscale Discussions

Northern Indiana NEXRAD Radar

CoD Visible Satellite Image (will appear blank overnight)

Snowfall Coverage

Midwest Snow cover Information: http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/

SPC Severe Weather Reports (Today and Yesterday)
________ Today _____________ Yesterday _____

Useful Links
COD Weather Analysis Page: http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/
Storm Prediction Center: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Severe Weather Values Reference Guide: http://weatherspotter.net/index11.php or http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/
TwisterData Model Page: http://www.twisterdata.com/
Earl Barker's Central US Model Page: http://128.121.193.153/central_models.htm
NSSL WRF Model: http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/
NSSL 4KM WRF Model Forecast Soundings: http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/wrf/sdg/

Additional Information and Discussion can be seen at: http://www.storm-scope.com/ and the Storm Scope Forum at http://www.storm-scope.com/forum

created by JustaSooner on Dec 02, 2011 at 11:32:11 pm
updated by JustaSooner on Dec 16, 2011 at 01:42:45 pm
    Outdoors     Comments: 85

source      versions


Comments ... #

Hey, Justa, I'm planning to drive to Indy and back this weekend. Is there anything weather-wise I should be concerned about?

posted by mom2 on Dec 02, 2011 at 11:38:24 pm     #  

Chance for accumulating snow is increasing for Monday into Tuesday. New GFS is coming in now, but NAM has already ran. That model keeps most of the snow accumulation west of Ohio. Accumulation through Tuesday morning generally 3 inches or less. Nothing major. Upper air temps will be above freezing over NW Ohio through the period and surface temps will be above freezing as well. However, that is the NAM story. GFS will be done for this period in about 30-45 minutes and will update then.

posted by JustaSooner on Dec 02, 2011 at 11:41:13 pm     #  

Here is the NAM snowfall forecast for through 6AM CST/7AM EST Tuesday.

posted by JustaSooner on Dec 02, 2011 at 11:42:22 pm     #  

Cool...I plan on being back before Monday, so as long as things look clear Saturday/Sunday then I should be good. :)

Thanks!

posted by mom2 on Dec 02, 2011 at 11:42:40 pm     #   1 person liked this

Great information. Thanks!

posted by holland on Dec 03, 2011 at 12:21:19 am     #  

Here is the GFS's take on it. A bit closer and most of the area will see some snow it appears. So make taking in any area Christmas displays even better. :)

Looks like maybe 1 to 2 inches for Toledo proper, so if we average GFS with NAM...can figure around an inch. Of course the models will change a bit I feel tomorrow. They are not in agreement at all with the system on Sunday/Monday in the Southern Plains (NAM has a blizzard, GFS has a light snowfall) and that could impact what it is outputting for up in the Great Lakes.

No hype, just details to let you all see behind the scenes a bit. Every time I visit I get annoyed at how the local media is either in total hype mode or completely negative and depressing. Everyone on TV seem to groan at the mention of snow. My opinion. It is freaking Ohio. It is going to snow. I personally would rather see it on the ground covering the dead stuff and brighten things up than the alternative. That is also with me now living in an area that has horrible snow removal capabilities. OKC that is over 600 square miles with in city limits, compared to Toledo's 80 sq miles, has maybe 15-20 plow trucks to cover the whole city. There is no where near the amount of negativity down there as you see up here. Oh well, going to stop there otherwise I'm going to change the purpose of this thread. LOL

posted by JustaSooner on Dec 03, 2011 at 12:38:01 am     #  

"No hype, just details to let you all see behind the scenes a bit." ... we don't need no stinkin' TV weather stations - Tks

posted by justareviewer on Dec 03, 2011 at 12:39:33 pm     #  

Updated models this morning have two chances for snow in the short term. Monday to Tuesday has a slight chance for maybe some light accumulations. The new GFS is also showing a system moving up from the southern plains on Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. This system looks like it could tap some gulf moisture and bring in some better snow chances.

Its early guesstimate is around 3 to 6 inches in the toledo area. Could see some spotty 6 to 8 near toledo and along US 24 back to the IN line. Again this is first guess and it will change 17 times before then. I always tend to look at these as worst case and to just keep it in mind what could happen.

If it happens, will setup for a very nice time this weekend for those that want to go see the lights at the zoo.

posted by JustaSooner on Dec 03, 2011 at 12:43:19 pm     #  

Midweek snowfall blip on GFS has gone away tonight. Most of it will be out in the mountains to the east. Mon/Tues snow chances are still there...looks like 2 inches or less...greatest amounts will be in the west.

posted by JustaSooner on Dec 04, 2011 at 12:54:06 am     #  

Outstanding information. Please keep it updated...

posted by rch101 on Dec 04, 2011 at 03:39:15 pm     #  

Taking this with a grain...bag...of salt. Precip is increasing over Southern IL so more moderate rain will move in a bit later. As far as snowfall goes, NAM keeps things minimal but GFS and now the short term HRRR model are showing more accumulation. It will all depend on when things change over and they are moving in cooler 850MB temps earlier than originally planned. We'll see what happens. I would still guess an inch or less, especially with wet/warm ground melting falling snow.

Model Forecasts...
NAM: 1" or less
GFS: 1 to 2 inches
HRRR: 3 to isolated 4 inches Northern tier of counties into SE Mich, 1 to 3 south (lower amounts south)

posted by JustaSooner on Dec 05, 2011 at 01:16:10 pm     #  

Man! Its gonna suck in Quebec!

posted by holland on Dec 05, 2011 at 01:46:51 pm     #  

Here is what is being watched, the 850MB temps. This short animation shows how the HRRR is predicting it to drop south of US 24 by 5-7PM tonight.

http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr:&runTime=2011120515&plotName=temp_t7850&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t7&wjet=1

The newest run of the HRRR (it runs every hour) has it pushing through at 4PM now. Not sure what it is latching on to to want to speed things up like this. Might be overdoing it some, but if it isn't would definitely raise snow accumulation chances a bunch. Not biting on it just yet though.

posted by JustaSooner on Dec 05, 2011 at 02:32:54 pm     #  

Change over to snow is starting in Southern Michigan with Adrian over to all snow already. IWX (North Webster, IN) and DTX (Pontiac, MI) weather offices all painting at least 1 to 3 inches over the area now. CLE's latest update is ignoring it saying they think it should stay all rain. Of course, this is the joys of having 3 different weather offices cover a the same general area.

Latest HRRR forecast is for 2 to 4 inches over most of the area with pockets up to 6 inches. I would thinking cutting those in half would be more likely right now unless we see a very distinct change over.

posted by JustaSooner on Dec 05, 2011 at 04:51:28 pm     #  

Getting snowed on in Detroit as we speak.

posted by dbw8906 on Dec 05, 2011 at 05:13:20 pm     #  

Change over starting to take place in the Toledo area. Appears to be mostly sleet now with a bit of rain still mixing in.

posted by JustaSooner on Dec 05, 2011 at 05:27:06 pm     #  

Cleveland NWS radar is down until Dec 10 or so for the dual polarization upgrade, after which it should be way more awesomer. So Cleveland WFO is relying on surrounding radars, please pardon them if the forecasting sucks until their radar upgrade is done.

NOUS61 KCLE 301208
FTMCLE
Message Date: Nov 30 2011 12:08:16

KCLE RADAR WILL BE DOWN FOR MANIT, FOR DUAL POLE MOD TILL 10 DEC 2011

posted by anonymouscoward on Dec 05, 2011 at 07:26:46 pm     #  

try the NWS radar for detroit.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=dtx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

posted by Linecrosser on Dec 05, 2011 at 09:21:19 pm     #  

Cleveland NWS forecasting has been horrible for years. The Dual Pol upgrade won't help. ;) Though it is very nice in helping with precip types. We've been having it tested down in OK for the last 4-5 years and it has gotten some really good use to multiple event types.

Looks like around 120-150 miles left of the main snow area. This could take another 5 to 7 hours to clear the area. Add'l accumulation of 1-2 inches looks likely now, possibly 2-4 inches under the heavier snow bands that are out there.

All in all things seems to be going according to schedule very well. It also shows how horrible the local weather forecasters are. Stan has just gotten crankier and lazy. Didn't watch Robert, but I grew tired of him when I lived in Toledo. LOL

posted by JustaSooner on Dec 05, 2011 at 09:25:56 pm     #  

JustaSooner posted at 08:25:56 PM on Dec 05, 2011:

Cleveland NWS forecasting has been horrible for years. The Dual Pol upgrade won't help. ;) Though it is very nice in helping with precip types. We've been having it tested down in OK for the last 4-5 years and it has gotten some really good use to multiple event types.

Looks like around 120-150 miles left of the main snow area. This could take another 5 to 7 hours to clear the area. Add'l accumulation of 1-2 inches looks likely now, possibly 2-4 inches under the heavier snow bands that are out there.

All in all things seems to be going according to schedule very well. It also shows how horrible the local weather forecasters are. Stan has just gotten crankier and lazy. Didn't watch Robert, but I grew tired of him when I lived in Toledo. LOL

Cleveland NWS seems to consistently underestimate forecast rain and temps but overshoot forecast snow. Personally I think their models go wonky with the lakes and they don't know how to compensate. OTOH when they get all the radars upgraded to dual-pol or better they might get a better look into the coming storms and be able to make a better call. If I had my way though there'd be serious Federal funding going into the NWS and some way found to tie all the various road/highway sensor stations and so on into the NWS to give them better feedback, as well as new satellites and a big number of radar sites added on to get better looks into storms. Alas, keeping the public safe from bad weather is a lower priority than The Wars on Terrorism and Drugs... :(

posted by anonymouscoward on Dec 05, 2011 at 09:39:26 pm     #  

I also think part of the problem is that the Cleveland NWS is more focused on NE Ohio and NW PA and doesn't really devote much thought to NW OH. I was hopeful when the NWS decided to open the North Webster, IN office that they would take on all of the Toledo area. Unfortunately they just took the western half. Ideally we would see some adjustment to the weather offices and their coverage area. Of course I live in an area where the Norman NWS office covers 2/3rds of Oklahoma and several counties in North Texas. However they are without question one of the more innovative and reliable offices in the country. I really like North Webster and think they would do well taking over everything along and west of I-75. Maybe even Ottawa County as well so the entire Metro area is covered. However I think Cleveland handling most of the lake would be best.

The other thing that really impacts the area is Toledo is at least 60 miles away from a WSR88D site. Pontiac is the nearest one. Cleveland is over 100 miles away. North Webster I think is about the same or around 80 miles. When you get that far away from a radar site you are looking too far up in the air to get a good idea of what is going on at the surface. A new radar site either in Defiance or Wood County would do a lot to improve weather coverage here. Of course the NWS isn't pumping out new deployments at all, but another option might be smaller deployments like the CASA system being developed in Central Oklahoma. In addition to the 3 WSR88Ds that cover Central and Western Oklahoma, they deployed 4 smaller radars that only cover about a 25-30 mile radius from each site. These provide much more high resolution and lower elevation detail in storms that move near them.

Sort of going with your thinking of highway sensors, I would like to see a mesonet deployed in the area. They are mainly in states in the Plains, with Oklahoma having the largest footprint. Every county has at least one full service weather reporting station (http://www.mesonet.org). It would really come in handy in a day like today trying to determine rain/snow lines and getting ground truth of precip type quicker. The station update in near real time to the general public. The system also has many other uses when it comes to measuring ground water/temp to assist in drought, flooding, and wildfire concerns.

It would be something that would almost have to be linked to local universities to help with funding. However, I don't think UT or BGSU have meteorology programs. I think Penn State is probably the nearest school with a high level meteorology school.

posted by JustaSooner on Dec 05, 2011 at 10:46:19 pm     #  

Side note to Cleveland NWS. I did notice in their afternoon discussion they were only referring to the 12Z models. It seems they don't even pay attention to the 18Z runs (which are in progress then) or the short term models - HRRR and RUC which run every hour. It would explain a lot of why they have forecasting issues especially in short term situations like today. They seem to put blinders on to the rapid refresh/real time models that are updated more frequently. IWX did mention them and their forecast was pretty spot on after adjustments.

posted by JustaSooner on Dec 05, 2011 at 11:29:49 pm     #  

There's 1/4 maybe 1/2 inch here already in Oregon. It was snowing while I was at work. Really warmed my heart to break away from work to look outside not to rain but huge fluffy flakes. Made the walk home enjoyable :)

Let it snow, let it snow, let it snooooooooow.

posted by INeedCoffee on Dec 06, 2011 at 12:04:22 am     #  

I had 2" of measured snow fall on the ground at home last night around 10:30.

Justa - time to start weather biz? ;o)

posted by avinsurer on Dec 06, 2011 at 10:21:50 am     #  

"Stan has just gotten crankier and lazy. Didn't watch Robert, but I grew tired of him when I lived in Toledo."...frankly, they all suck, and channel 11 now has eight graders doing weekends.

posted by justareviewer on Dec 06, 2011 at 11:11:18 am     #  

avinsurer posted at 09:21:50 AM on Dec 06, 2011:

I had 2" of measured snow fall on the ground at home last night around 10:30.

Justa - time to start weather biz? ;o)

LOL. Maybe that is the niche we've been looking for.

Overall looks like the snowfall forecast verified from HRRR. Didn't get the high end amounts. Large swath of 1 to 2 inches over most of the area with higher spots of 2 to 4 inches.

quote=102865

Yeah I noticed the weekend crews seem to be more representative of a bottom tier TV market, not a low-mid tier market. The entire media market in Toledo just needs to be slapped though. Soooo much negativity.

posted by JustaSooner on Dec 06, 2011 at 11:58:50 am     #  

Snowfall Outlook going forward...

Short Term
Short wave moving over later this evening. Looks like most areas of NW Ohio will get a dusting of snow. HRRR has almost all of the NW Corner of OH (including areas along and west of 75) with 0.1 to 1.0 inch of snow. So a dusting seems pretty good right now to go with.

Friday Dec 9th
Quick moving system behind the larger storm system that will be to our east. Looks like a general shot of 1 to 3 inches. Precip should last most of the day Friday, but will be mostly light as it looks right now.

Medium/Long Range Outlook
- Weds Dec 14th: Another quick moving system, might bring a dusting if anything.
- Dec 15th - Dec 17th: Significant storm system might be coming out of the Southern Miss Valley. Widespread heavy precip will be possible. It will start to impact the area on the 15th. This will be a tough one to call this far out. Right now it is showing surface temps in the low to mid 30s, upper air temps will be above freezing until about 6PM. Highs that day will be mid 30s. While 850MB temps are above freezing, precip will be mostly light in the Toledo area. When temps falls upstairs, precip will be highest. Still looks like less than a half inch of liquid. So right now we could argue a general 2 to 4 inch accumulation of snow, but I would expect a good amount of sleet and melting to take place. After this storm it appears upper air temps will remain well below freezing except for a couple days. So following precip types will be mostly snow. After the main batch passed on the 15th expect a couple days of wrap around light snow or lake effect in the favored areas. Looks like Toledo will only see enhanced snow that can make it from Lake Michigan or Huron.
- Dec 20th - Dec 21st: Next major system comes out of the Southern Plains/Red River Valley and moves NE into the area. This is a time when upper air temps might approach the freezing mark or slightly above, so we could see some sleet/graupel mix in at times. Liquid amounts are pretty light, generally around a half inch total. So early estimates are around 3 to 5 inches for this one. However, this is WAAAAY out, so don't bet on it yet.

As with any long term snow outlooks, just take them as an snapshot of what models are showing now. Things will change a lot between now and then, but it gives you an idea of what may be on the way. For those hoping for a White Christmas, I would say if this forecast verifies chances are pretty good to at least have snow cover for the holiday. We'll get an idea in a few days on the chance for any falling snow.

posted by JustaSooner on Dec 06, 2011 at 01:46:21 pm     #  

Any news on the weather for Christmas? 1/2 looking forward to a white one, but 1/2 not since I will be driving threw 3 states to get home. Then again always a white Christmas in the highlands of Appalachia lol

posted by INeedCoffee on Dec 07, 2011 at 11:40:07 pm     #  

INC, I'm with you on the half and half. :)

My son and I are headed to Philly on Christmas Eve to spend the holiday with my other son. From there, we're heading to Washington, DC to cheer on the UT Rockets in the Military Bowl. I like snow on Christmas, but I don't want to have nasty weather when we're traveling!

posted by valbee on Dec 07, 2011 at 11:56:58 pm     #  

The the early week snowfall discussed about 10 days ago looks pretty probable now. Looks like a general 3 to 5 inches of snow. Greater amounts from Defiance to Mansfield to Akron. Some isolated spots could see 6 inches.

No previous forecast history of model runs hasn't been extremely consistent on the placement of the snow band through the lower Great lakes. Models pushed it north after we discussed it here last. Then this past Tuesday it dropped back over Northern Ohio. Wednesday's runs took it away completely and showed a significant snow storm in the Southern Plains. Yesterday is snapped back to a northern solution and brought a snow band back across the Great Lakes. It trended further North into Michigan, but has moved back south the last two runs. The last run at 06Z (prior to the one below) had more significant snowfall from Detroit through NW OH into Northern IN of 6 to 8 inches. So now it is trended south a bit again. We'll see how it plays out, but going back we can be assured that snow will occur in the Great Lakes and have decent accumulations. The exact location of the main snow band is still going to have to wait until we are a couple days out.

Next chance of snow appears to be Friday the 23rd of another couple inches.

posted by JustaSooner on Dec 16, 2011 at 01:42:03 pm     #  

Looks like some accumulating snow this week, but nothing horrible. NAM and GFS aren't really together yet on amounts. They are both pretty much in agreement and placing of precip and the system moving through. Looks like it should be kicking out of Western Ohio by midnight Wednesday(if not sometime late Tuesday evening).

NAM is lighter with snow accumulations with less than an inch in most areas. It does have a band of 1 to 2 inches over IN/MI on Tuesday but melts it off quick.

GFS on the other hand paints the eastern half of lower Michigan with 1 to 3 inches, maybe 3 to 5 in the thumb area. Indiana mainly 1 to 2 inches (less Northwest) with an area of 3 to 4 inches in SE sections. For Ohio it looks like maintain 2 to 4 inches of snow. Greatest amounts just south of the Turnpike and along and north of I-71.

After this looks like a round of clippers will come through every few days. Some of them might not really do much, others might bring a little light precip. No major winter storms on the horizon though right now.

posted by JustaSooner on Dec 26, 2011 at 02:38:45 pm     #   1 person liked this

W00t! I am all for holding off the major snow for as long as possible.

posted by tlm0000 on Dec 26, 2011 at 03:50:52 pm     #  

posted by toledolen_ on Dec 26, 2011 at 05:14:03 pm     #   1 person liked this

posted by Linecrosser on Dec 26, 2011 at 05:18:31 pm     #  

@JustaSooner - I received an Admiral Fitzroy Storm Glass yesterday. Probably not quite as accurate.

posted by tlm0000 on Dec 26, 2011 at 06:43:31 pm     #  

According to the NWS, a messy mixture of precip is forecast for the Toledo over the next 24 hours.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?zoneid=OHZ003

Tonight... Cloudy with rain... Snow likely with a chance of light sleet late. Snow and sleet accumulation around an inch. Lows in the lower 30s. South winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Tuesday...Rain in the morning. Snow. Total snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches. Near steady temperature in the mid 30s. South winds 5 to 10 mph...becoming west in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.

posted by jr on Dec 26, 2011 at 06:47:14 pm     #   1 person liked this

So the winter is coming graphic is pretty spot on. LOL However, GFS can still change its mind (and will), but it has been wanting to bring cold air down by the middle of January.

Cold dome settles into SW and South Central Canada starting on the 10th of January. Typically once they get into this area it is only a matter of time until they spill into the Great Plains and then move east. I will say that GFS does tend to over forecast number extremes in the later portion of its forecast window. Also these model runs down change quite often every 6 hours when a new one is ran. It has been consistent it wanting to develop a cold dome through the last few days, but keeps pushing it back on when it will happen. So it may happen or it may not, but it seems to really want to push this in. It could also be climatology forcing it too. LOL

Upcoming Precip Chances...
-- all initial precip amounts are liquid equivalent. --
- Thursday Dec 29th: Small clipper, less than a .10". Rain/Snow mix - mostly snow turnpike and North
- Friday Dec 30th: Another clipper with more moisture, around 0.3 to 0.5". Rain/Snow mix to all snow later mainly north of the Maumee River/Turnpike. Could see 1 to 3 inches in those areas.
- Sunday Jan 1st: System moving through bringing very light precip, around 0.1" or less. Should be all liquid.
- Jan 2nd to 4th: There appears to be a chance for some lake effect snow through the 4th, so might see a flake or two if any make it to NW OH.
- Saturday Jan 7th: Another quick moving system, low moisture only about a 0.1" of precip. Appears to be mostly light snow with maybe an inch. Could see some freezing drizzle later as upper air temps warm up some, but surface stays below freezing.
- Wednesday Jan 11th to 12th: Stronger system with more moisture, about 0.25 to 0.4" Depending on the time of the precip, appears it will start as snow and change to rain and then change back to snow before ending. Of course this is way out there, so don't get too worked up just yet. :)

Animated 12Z Forecast Loop - Surface Temps: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=12&model_dd=28&model_init_hh=12&fhour=00¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=loopmaps&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

Forecast Temps January 13th - Cold dome starting to move south.

posted by JustaSooner on Dec 28, 2011 at 02:54:23 pm     #  

Best weather forecsting EVER:

WKRP in Cincinnati

Les Nessman Eyewitness Weather
"I call it eyewitness weather because I put my head outside the window and witness the weather...........

posted by holland on Dec 28, 2011 at 05:50:01 pm     #   1 person liked this

As we go into the New Year’s holiday weekend, I want to brief you on some potential winter weather moving in for New Year’s Day and into Monday, January 2nd. Per a briefing just issued by the National Weather Service, a strong low pressure area will move across the Great Lakes Sunday and into Monday. This winter storm will bring measurable snow to the Great Lakes. The area’s most impacted by heavier snow will be the traditional snow belts around the Great Lakes; however, accumulating snow, blowing/drifting snow, and our first outbreak of “arctic” air will impact all areas of the Great Lakes. Snow amounts for NW Ohio are not yet known, but whatever does fall will be blowing around with gusty winds especially on Monday. Although falling snow should move out of the area before Tuesday morning and the winds should start to subside by then, roads may be icy still on Tuesday morning with the much colder temperatures that will be moving into the area. I know many schools are resuming Tuesday morning, so schools should plan on monitoring weather and road conditions.

The NWS will be briefing EMA again Saturday afternoon. If possible, I will try to email an update out to all of you. If you have access to Facebook, please check for additional information and updates on our EMA Facebook page at Wood County Emergency Management Agency. Monitor developing conditions and updated forecasts throughout the weekend. Although this storm does not appear to be a major impact to NW Ohio, it will have the potential for being our biggest winter storm event so far this season especially with the winds and cold air that will accompany the storm.

Please have a SAFE and Happy New Year!

Brad

BRADLEY J. GILBERT, DIRECTOR

WOOD COUNTY E.M.A.

posted by INeedCoffee on Dec 30, 2011 at 02:43:08 pm     #  

Models finally all came into agreement this morning on accumulating snow for the area. Better late than never I guess. Doesn't look like any major heavy snowfall amounts or time periods when it will get too out of control. Highest rates appear to be around 0.3 inch/hr.

NAM: Generally 1-2 inches, with 3-4 inches from just south of US 24 and east of I-75 over to about Mansfield. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=01&model_dd=11&model_init_hh=12&fhour=57¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

GFS: Looking at 3 inches I-75 and back to the west. 2 inches for the rest of Ohio north of I-70 and around an inch south of I-70. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2012&model_mm=01&model_dd=11&model_init_hh=12&fhour=60¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

Now one version of the NAM is running with a higher liquid to snow ratio than the others so its amounts are a bit on the high side. You can see that here: http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=IWX

That version paints roughly 3 to 6 inches in the western tier of counties and then 6 to 10 inches from Lima to Toledo and back to the southeast. Probably not going to see it, but putting it out there.

Long term the GFS has back tracked on bringing the coldest arctic air in for now. Originally next week could have seen lows below zero in the area, but it has relaxed to mainly average January temps. This morning's run does indicate it may try again for the end of January, but that's too far out to really worry about right now.

posted by JustaSooner on Jan 11, 2012 at 02:56:14 pm     #  

So, is it gonna snow? or what? When?

posted by holland on Jan 11, 2012 at 03:07:52 pm     #  

Accumulating snow should start late afternoon Thursday and go into late Friday.

posted by JustaSooner on Jan 11, 2012 at 03:43:55 pm     #  

Oh so winter is gonna put in an appearance again. Long as the bitter cold stays the hell away and doesn't drive up the gas and electric bills, I'm happy.

posted by anonymouscoward on Jan 11, 2012 at 07:04:34 pm     #  

Snowfall forecast for the next 24-36 hours is moving around a bit. Model guidance this morning has amounts down a bit.

GFS: Generally 1 inch over most of Ohio...Southern 1/2 of IN, and SE Michigan, with maybe isolated areas of 2 inches. Northern Indiana could see 3-6 inches with 6-9 inches possible from South Bend and to the west. Same for extreme SW MI.

NAM: A bit lower on the overall amounts, but not really my most favor model in the winter. Inch or less NW OH, 1-3 inches in NE OH, less south of I-70. 3-6" in Western Michigan and NW IN.

Short Term HRRR is below - this does not cover the entire forecast period when snow will be falling:

posted by JustaSooner on Jan 12, 2012 at 02:05:41 pm     #  

I'm ready for a good 2-3 foot storm with snow drifts exceeding 5" :)

My stack of books is in dire need of a snow day or 3.

posted by INeedCoffee on Jan 12, 2012 at 04:02:28 pm     #   1 person liked this

5' (feet) not inches. doh

posted by INeedCoffee on Jan 12, 2012 at 04:02:53 pm     #  

Last year we had a storm that only dropped about 7 or 8 inches, but had 5' snow drifts. :) Granted we also had winds over 50-65 mph for a few hours during it too. So you had bare ground and then 5 feet of snow. LOL

NWS Cleveland decided to wake up and put the areas along and east of I-75 under an advisory now and winter storm warnings in the snow belt areas. Forecast models still don't want to put out that much snow in the Toledo area. However, they may be downplaying the water content of the snow. When the system came through down here last night we got a quick band of moderate snow. The atmosphere was very dry though and the moisture content of the snow was also pretty low. Could be translating up there the same way.

The total liquid accumulation appears to be around 0.25 to 0.35. That would normally translate to 2-4 inches of snow under normal circumstances. So things might be off in over predicting sleet or liquid accumulation instead of snow.

posted by JustaSooner on Jan 12, 2012 at 05:33:58 pm     #  

good ol Lake Effect. How many times do we see something coming then it splits around us? I love that winter is only going to be 2-3 months this season instead of 4-5! I'm happy it's held off this long, and I agree that it would brighten up the place a little. Be good for aquifier, too.

posted by nana on Jan 13, 2012 at 12:10:14 am     #   1 person liked this

Nana, yeah wind is just right on the back end of the system for lake effect to enhance the snow with the system. We would love to get something down this way, but it looks like we go into fire season here soon bone dry.

It might look like the storm is splitting around you guys, but it mostly has to do with lake enhancement just making the favored areas look "better". If the lakes weren't there everyone would be getting just an inch or two. The latest HRRR snowfall forecast through mid afternoon Friday has around 2-3" for Lucas and Ottawa counties. Williams County around 2 to 4 inches. Rest of the NW corner of Ohio is looking at mainly just 1 to 2 inches if that.

posted by JustaSooner on Jan 13, 2012 at 05:08:26 am     #  

I'm in Northwood and we have 1/4-1/2", if that. Hard to tell cause it's blowing so hard. They're doing a great job of keeping Pemberville Rd open, tho, I've heard a plow 3 times already, and it's plowing, not just laying salt, lol.

posted by nana on Jan 13, 2012 at 12:33:47 pm     #  

Quick look at accumulations...

posted by JustaSooner on Jan 13, 2012 at 03:15:11 pm     #  

Looks like the roller coaster ride will continue. Late this week system will be moving through Friday through Saturday. It won't be a very heavy burst of snow, but the area could see about 3-6 inches of snow (less east, more west) over those days.

Longer ranges looks like the following...keep in mind there is a high amount of uncertainty with longer range forecast. Things can easily change run to run, but this is how it looks now.

Another shot of accumulating snow appears possible Friday the 27th, mostly for NW OH. Rest of OH looks liquid at this point or a wet snow. Amounts could be another 2-4 or more inches.

Tuesday Jan 31 looks like some moderate rain will come in and change over to snow through the night into the morning of Wednesday Feb 1st. Could see a quarter to half inch of rain and then 2-3 inches of snow.

posted by JustaSooner on Jan 18, 2012 at 03:32:46 am     #   1 person liked this

Tonight's model run has GFS and NAM pretty much in agreement for Friday & Saturday. Looks like a general 3 to 4 inches for most of the area.

posted by JustaSooner on Jan 19, 2012 at 03:04:55 am     #  

Was out at lunch today and visibility was down to a quarter mile at times today with a heavy snow burst.

Nice to finally see it snowing in the winter.

posted by avinsurer on Jan 19, 2012 at 02:24:44 pm     #  

Snow blowing sideways here, and pretty heavy. Roads are getting slick. Somebody didn't make the curve on Angola Rd going east where it takes a sharp left turn north to connect to Reynolds Rd. What part of snow and slippery don't drivers get? :)

I hope we do get 3-4 in. A return to more normal winter weather is oddly reassuring. Plus, the landscapers that need snow to make their winter payroll have had a really rotten season.

posted by holland on Jan 19, 2012 at 02:41:19 pm     #  

Heading out the Key and Heatherdowns from the East Side about 6p, anything bad happening?

posted by nana on Jan 19, 2012 at 05:18:25 pm     #  

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
418 PM EST THU JAN 19 2012

...ACCUMULATING SNOW FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST INDIANA FRIDAY
MORNING...AND THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN...NORTHEAST INDIANA...AND NORTHWEST OHIO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM
MID AFTERNOON FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

INZ003>009-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-200530-
/O.NEW.KIWX.WW.Y.0004.120120T1500Z-120121T1200Z/
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-
BERRIEN-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-
DEFIANCE-HENRY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...NEW CARLISLE...WALKERTON...ELKHART...GOSHEN...
NAPPANEE...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...SHIPSHEWANA...ANGOLA...FREMONT...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...ALBION...AUBURN...GARRETT...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
MARCELLUS...STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...WHITE PIGEON...MENDON...
COLDWATER...BRONSON...HILLSDALE...LITCHFIELD...JONESVILLE...
BRYAN...MONTPELIER...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...FAYETTE...SWANTON...
DEFIANCE...SHERWOOD...HICKSVILLE...NAPOLEON...DESHLER...
LIBERTY CENTER
418 PM EST THU JAN 19 2012 /318 PM CST THU JAN 19 2012/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/
FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM EST
/9 AM CST/ FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ SATURDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

* SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY MORNING...AND FAR NORTHEAST
INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
IS EXPECTED FROM THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7
INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

IMPACTS...

* ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLICK FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

* PERIODS OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

posted by JustaSooner on Jan 19, 2012 at 10:01:57 pm     #  

GFS and NAM remain solid tonight. A couple ares could see up to 5 inches of snow...so calling for a general 3 to 5 inch snowfall still sounds good. What could mess this up? Two scenarios...

Warmer air aloft could work in to some areas and produce more sleet, but this doesn't look very likely at all for the Toledo metro area.

The other is a higher snow to liquid ratio. The standard is typically 10 to 1. QPF (total precip) totals on NAM and GFS are 0.30". So normally this would be 3 inches of snow, but we could see it be 15 or so to 1 with the setup. Hence why some ares could see up to 5 inches but QPF numbers remain around .30" of liquid.

posted by JustaSooner on Jan 20, 2012 at 01:57:48 am     #  

The updates and the explanations are appreciated.

posted by holland on Jan 20, 2012 at 11:47:15 am     #  

What is a GFS and NAM?

posted by INeedCoffee on Jan 20, 2012 at 01:45:47 pm     #  

NAM & GFS are holding at 4-5 inches this morning. HRRR output is below showing a band of 4-6".

HRRR Snowfall Forecast for the next 15 hours:

posted by JustaSooner on Jan 20, 2012 at 02:04:17 pm     #  

Updated HRRR short term model snowfall forecast...this is in addition to what is already down. Heavier snow band looks like it will drop a general area of 4-6 inches surrounded by 3-4 inches...through the Northern half of Ohio.

posted by JustaSooner on Jan 20, 2012 at 09:58:14 pm     #  

< gasses up snowblower >

posted by historymike on Jan 20, 2012 at 10:00:44 pm     #  

Yeah might have to mix some up.

posted by Linecrosser on Jan 20, 2012 at 10:50:47 pm     #  

Here's some different kind of winter weather info.

Hazardous Weather Outlook issued by the Cleveland National Weather Service at 3:55 p.m. on Sun, Jan 22, 2012 that includes northwest Ohio:

Some of the thunderstorms late tonight could approach severe levels.

Some of the thunderstorms that develop Monday could be severe. Winds will approach wind advisory criteria on Monday as a strong cold front sweeps across the area.

Spotter activation may be needed.


The Storm Prediction Center, however, shows the best chance for strong thunderstorms exists southwest of us.


NWS changeable forecast for the Toledo area over the next 36 hrs:

Tonight... Cloudy. Areas of fog. A chance of rain showers late this evening. Occasional rain showers with a chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Not as cool with lows in the mid 30s. Temperature rising into the mid 40s after midnight. Southeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Monday... Occasional showers with a chance of thunderstorms in the morning...then showers likely with a chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Little or no snow accumulation. Not as cool with highs in the upper 40s. Temperature falling to around 40 in the afternoon. South winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.

Monday Night... A chance of rain showers in the evening. Cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Breezy with lows in the upper 20s. Southwest winds around 25 mph...diminishing to 15 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.

posted by jr on Jan 22, 2012 at 06:04:57 pm     #  

Storms should kick up around 2-3AM. Main threat will be some wind approaching severe limits (56 mph). Shear values will be pretty high overnight, as usual, so that will help with the wind threat. HRRR short term forecast most of the storms/heavy rain will be ending pretty close to rush hour.

Pretty interesting to see the severe threat that far north this time of year...normally the Southeast/Gulf Coast is entering their severe season now. This system is a windy one right now though. Down here our sustained wind has been around 40 mph with gusts approach 70 mph. Naturally wildfires are popping up and the wonderful orange haze is in their sky from the dust being kicked up.

posted by JustaSooner on Jan 22, 2012 at 07:55:48 pm     #   1 person liked this

Thanks again, JustaSooner, for your tireless and much appreciated efforts to keep us informed.

posted by historymike on Jan 22, 2012 at 08:09:28 pm     #  

No worries. I lived there long enough to know how horrible the weather coverage is there...both from media and the Cleveland forecast office. LOL

posted by JustaSooner on Jan 22, 2012 at 09:40:19 pm     #  

so lots of rain tonight? no snow?

posted by upso on Jan 22, 2012 at 09:41:35 pm     #  

Radar at 11:22 p.m. on Jan 22 shows a growing line of thunderstorms, moving east-northeast.


A tornado watch exists for the lower Ohio River Valley. Currently, multiple counties in western Kentucky and southeast Illinois are under a tornado warning. The threat for severe weather overnight may occur as far north as central Indiana. Like JustaSooner said, this is an unusual severe thunderstorm threat for this far north in late January. November, yes. But January, odd.

Thus far, the SPC forecasts the strongest storms to remain well southwest of our region.

And here are excerpts from the 10:55 p.m. area weather discussion issued by the Cleveland NWS:

area of showers and thunderstorms remain well to the
southwest of the region closer to the better jet energy that is
moving across arkansas. we will need to monitor the potential for
thunder after midnight. believe it will take until 08z before we
see the better lift and thunder move into nw ohio. this area of
thunder should slide eastward through sunrise and may get as far
east as a line from kcle to kcak.

posted by jr on Jan 23, 2012 at 12:55:04 am     #  

But channel 11 is certified most arrogant weather forecast.

posted by Linecrosser on Jan 23, 2012 at 03:39:13 am     #   1 person liked this

When I was visiting and saw that "certified most accurate" crap I had to laugh. I've never seen that anywhere else, and definitely not in a bigger market. At least ones that I've been there. I notice that the company that does it essentially "studies" the forecasts and then attempts to sell the rights to the tag line to the station they deem best. Sounds like something I should have done. LOL

I've never cared for WTOL's weather coverage. Always low grade and none of them come across as being all that intelligent...but they can speak great in front of the camera. WTVG is alright, but Stan is just getting old and cranky. Jay i've always liked. My biggest issue with Toledo weather people are they are negative/pessimistic about 90% of the time.

They also need to get away from those stupid fake radar beams on their displays. WTVG has an excuse because it actually follows the radar dish as it comes around. WTOL though is just pulling in Level 3 data (maybe Level 2 but their displays are in pretty low resolution for it to be Level 2) which is on a set 4 to 7 minute delay. The whirling beams of doom are just a distraction and make the picture too busy.

Bah, maybe I'm just spoiled. I have the National Weather Center which houses SPC, NSSL, OU SOM, NWSFO, and a gazillion other agencies a few blocks away...and all the local stations (except FOX) have fully experienced/intelligent crews with all the toys.

Either way...rest of the morning and into the afternoon doesn't look bad. Mostly wrap around showers that'll eventually change over to some isolated light snow. Nothing big. Enjoy the wind...we peaked out at 67 mph here, doesn't look like it will be nearly that brisk there.

posted by JustaSooner on Jan 23, 2012 at 06:07:58 am     #  

Standing in my yard right now and it is SO MUDDY. This spring is going to be a NIGHTMARE

posted by upso on Jan 23, 2012 at 08:23:38 am     #   1 person liked this

Justa not much topography let alone trees to slow the wind down out there.

posted by Linecrosser on Jan 23, 2012 at 12:05:44 pm     #  

upso: I just hope we don't have the flooding like we did last year. I didn't get a single day of walleye fishing in because the water was to high.

posted by INeedCoffee on Jan 23, 2012 at 12:40:33 pm     #  

Outlook from the North Webster, IN office sums up the weather for this evening pretty well...

posted by JustaSooner on Jan 25, 2012 at 08:00:20 pm     #  

No real major amounts from snow overnight...general 1 to 2 inches.

posted by JustaSooner on Jan 26, 2012 at 06:40:24 pm     #  

Extended Look via the 12Z GFS. Note here is that there is some extended run to run inconsistencies with the GFS right now, so these forecasts need to be taken with a bucket of salt right now.

Near term: Clipper system moving through late tonight and tomorrow. Nothing major could see a quick 1-2 inches of snow. Another clipper comes through Monday, but most of the precip should stay in Michigan.

Coming Week: Storm system will move through on Wednesday. Looks like mostly like rain with temps will into the 40s. Next system gets brewing in Texas & Oklahoma, about 400 miles further north than the previous GFS run, but won't impact Ohio until the next week.

Long Range (Feb 5th - ): Potential strong storm will cause heavy snow/blizzard conditions from the Southern Plains up through Illinois. Right now it looks like Ohio will be dry slotted pretty quick and have a chance for a rain/snow mix with the system on Sunday the 5th. Air will be just a tad too warm for all snow. Lingering lake effect snow the following two days could bring some light snow. Things get pretty disorganized on the 12th and 13th in the forecast period, but that isn't unusual for the GFS. Could see a new storm develop out of the Rockies into the Plains, but worry about that next month. :)

posted by JustaSooner on Jan 28, 2012 at 04:37:37 pm     #  

what a weird, wonderful day, more like March than January.

posted by nana on Jan 28, 2012 at 09:37:10 pm     #  

It sure was more like March than February.

Is the jet stream still split?

posted by holland on Jan 28, 2012 at 10:06:03 pm     #  

Today, Feb 29, is the last day of the winter season as meteorologists define it.

Interesting local weather observations at 6:00 p.m., Feb 29, 2012.

  • Toledo Express Airport:
    • Fair sky
    • Winds from southwest at 17 mph
    • Temp 62 degrees
  • Toledo Metcalf Airport:
    • Clear sky
    • Winds west-southwest at 10 mph
    • Temp 61 degrees
  • West Toledo:
    • Foggy, low visibility
    • Wind nearly calm
    • Temp 40 degrees

posted by jr on Feb 29, 2012 at 07:27:16 pm     #  

jr: was odd the fog was so thick where I work you could hardly see cars in the parking lot, and breathing felt like you had a vaporizer in your face. But drive just 2-3 blocks to Navarre Ave and it was almost Sunny, by Woodville Road it was completely sunny.

posted by INeedCoffee on Feb 29, 2012 at 10:29:07 pm     #  

fog was CRAZY tonight. drove up manhattan and couldn't see more than 200 feet in front of me.

Crazy fog

posted by upso on Feb 29, 2012 at 10:40:41 pm     #  

Some nasty weather coming this way tonight.

posted by INeedCoffee on Mar 02, 2012 at 04:20:57 pm     #