I agree with dell_diva that it will be a year or so until the obvious economic damage starts being noticed. Just think of circling water in a toilet bowl as it's flushed. This (the Toledo area economy) is just a massive bowl, so it won't be quickly noticed.
Most businesses won't close, but many will. However, many businesses such as Toledo area bars, bowling alleys, convenience stores, restaurants, etc, will have lower gross sales. Keep in mind that many of these places have had increased sales for more than a year from the construction payroll. That has ended, so for many of them it's back to unemployment, but of course that isn't discussed, since it isn't positive spin.
Also, local churches, veterans organizations, elks, KoC, and various charities, that have had gambling (bingo, poker, raffles) events imo will see significant reductions. Hopefully they are prepared, but I doubt they are very proactive, since many of them probably falsely believe the casino is going to produce some mystical economic boom for the Toledo area.
Glassmen, a youth charity is one example. They had a monthly monte carlo on East Broadway for decades. I believe the last event was a few weeks ago.
Small bars, bowling alleys, convenience stores, restaurants, etc, have employees with quite a bit of off-the-books income. So, reduced incomes and/or increased layoffs for those people will never appear in the city's labor statistics.
People that actually believe The Docks & downtown businesses are going to see any extended uptick from the casino are being delusional.
I expect a possible initial uptick, as the employees' initial wages are circulated and there will be a euphoric buzz surrounding the casino's grand opening...casino's are expert marketers.
Maybe during the summer months some of the out-of-town casino patrons will wander downtown to a Hens or Walleye game. However, there will be some people who used to go to games, opting out and instead visiting the casino.
MOST people lose their money at the casino. Thus, it isn't as if people are going to walk out of the casino, after losing their shirt, and say to themselves, "gee, let's drive to the downtown Toledo ghetto to blow the last of my paycheck drinking and eating." They will be able to drink and eat all they want, @ THE CASINO TOO!
Long-term, I have little or no doubts, that the casino will be an economic death knell for many expecting the opposite.