Beating a dead horse/airport

A lot of this has to do with the Delta/Northwest merger. Back when they were separate entities, there were a lot of Delta flights from Toledo. I flew from Toledo to NYC and also to the Delta hubs in Cincy and Atlanta. Now that they are merged, Detroit is the hub. There are few flights from Toledo. Also, several years ago (prior to Delta completely pulling up their stakes), flights that left from Toledo went to Detroit. Makes no sense flying from Toledo.

IMO, Toledo's only hope is to turn into a cargo port or to attract someone like Southwest.

The news ways all negative. American's saw its year over year passenger numbers increase 12%. Allegiant was roughly flat at down 3%, but will be adding Punta Gorda this year so they will see a pretty good spike. They are also getting more aircraft this year (Airbuses) to help add some longer stage length flights that aren't profitable on the MD-80s. Not saying it will happen, but it could at least favor bringing Las Vegas back finally.

American is going to be the one to watch though. They are bringing in a ton of 70+ seat jets. This could very well impact TOL significantly. American continues to pull very strong yields (high profits) out of the Toledo operation, so - to me - that makes it attractive to introduce the larger RJs with 2 classes of service or even re-evaluate bringing the nonstop to Dallas/Ft. Worth back.

The airport, and to a larger degree the Port Authority, needs to start taking notes from Akron-Canton, Flint, Ft. Wayne, Dayton, South Bend, and other smaller cities that have been doing very well through all of this. Though I think a lot of it comes down to the apathy and overall negative mindset that plagues the City of Toledo.

Dappling to your point, prior to the merger Toledo was pretty significant for both airlines. At one point Delta had 14 nonstop flights a day to Atlanta and Cincy. Northwest was up to 9 I believe to Detroit at their peak.

The Toledo market is hard to read. People want nonstops and low fares. In today's economy it is hard to get both. You also have a passenger base that has the mind set "I'll just drive to Detroit." Which is what it is. It doesn't really impact American because the bulk of their traffic is from outside of Toledo flying in for business or family. Which then highlights the problem that Toledo could be a very successful spoke for airlines to get passengers into town, but they also expect a certain level of originating traffic to help with the yields.

The Port Authority needs to get more interactive with the public though. The contests with Allegiant and currently with American have been pushed for by local interests for years. They finally decided to move with it. I have my opinions on what else needs to be done. I am excited for BX Solutions and the possibilities there with organic growth and a local brand (not a German company). As far as getting airlines in there, it is going to be rough because the pickings are slim.

Southwest, as much as it would be wonderful (especially for me), I can't really see happening unless they would be ready to setup a travel bank of around $6-8 million. In most cases where Southwest has forced this (Panama City Beach) the fund never lost a dime and was cancelled early because it wasn't needed - the service stood on its own feet. I think Southwest would be great for Toledo, but they have bigger fish to fry right now...including finishing the integration of AirTran.

Other options for new service would be United to Washington, US Airways to Philly and Charlotte, American back to Dallas, Ultimate (Cincy-based company turning into a scheduled carrier) to Chicago Midway, Frontier to Denver and Florida, and JetBlue to New York and Lauderdale. Most of that is a dream, but doable.

The overall slam dunk though would be getting Spirit to move from Detroit. Their operation isn't massive, it would fit easily into the existing terminal. It would also fit the market perfectly and get them away from being exposed to Delta and the other mass of competition they have to contend with.

[quote]It really won't take long now before the communist politicians put a new levy on the ballot for specifically covering the airport's expenses. No taxpayer dollar will be allowed to escape.[/quote]

It already loses $1M per year or so. I don't really understand how to read their budget sheets so I can't really tell where the loss is coming from and I think it's from debt. They've cut everything out there from personnel to plowing the runways in the winter...

[quote]IMO, Toledo's only hope is to turn into a cargo port or to attract someone like Southwest.[/quote]

Won't happen, either of them. BX Solutions will become a niche cargo hauler over different modes of transportation...but will never return it to what BAX Global was. Southwest will remain a small player in DTW and FNT due to the Delta mega hub. There aren't enough other carriers out there anymore who want to deal with a smallish city.

[quote]The airport, and to a larger degree the Port Authority, needs to start taking notes from Akron-Canton, Flint, Ft. Wayne, Dayton, South Bend, and other smaller cities that have been doing very well through all of this. Though I think a lot of it comes down to the apathy and overall negative mindset that plagues the City of Toledo. [/quote]

[quote]The Port Authority needs to get more interactive with the public though. The contests with Allegiant and currently with American have been pushed for by local interests for years. They finally decided to move with it. I have my opinions on what else needs to be done. [/quote]

Here's where the Port failed on every level. They did nothing, had no vision or plan, nor reacted to changes in the industry while it has changed in the past 15 to 20 years. They just said "it is what it is and we'll get what we deserve" and look at what they have gotten. They've taken the right step by hiring a new promoter for the airport and air services but we shall see if they push it through. The best thing is to support what we have and so far, I would say the market has.

There is optimism as justasooner pointed out above. The first flight to Punta Gorda/Fort Myers is only showing single digit seats left and we have 3 weeks till service commences. The American/USAirways merger could yield good opportunities but the question is - does the Port have a plan for all contingencies? I really question they do right now. They've never had a "plan" for anything, at least in my opinion. That leads me to my next question - why do you have an organization tasked to run something that doesn't care about it or care to run it? They say they do, but actions speak louder then words...But then again, no one seems to care to (well except for maybe a few of us nuts...)

That Spirit idea is a pretty good one, JAS.

The Las Vegas Airport is a "Focus City" for Spirit and Southwest, therefore any direct flight to Vegas would be good from Toledo to the Las Vegas Airport.

The Reno Nevada Airport has Southwest as a Big player and could then go from there to Las Vegas (Toledo-REno- Las Vegas on Southwest)

UNited has a good number in New Orleans and could operate one weekly flight there.

Just some thoughts...

AS long as its more convenient to drive a little more or same time for me to DTW for a flight and get something non-stop TOL is going to have a tough time.

Let's talk hypothetical if Southwest were to come to Toledo and what it would look like. This is me speaking at this point and these comments in no way should be considered the thoughts or opinions of Southwest Airlines Co.

So if they announce Toledo, with the new model which allows for fewer flights from a market, I could realistically see:

Chicago Midway - 2x day
Baltimore - 1 to 2x day
Denver - 1x a day

Could see additional season/couple times a week service to places like Orlando and Vegas.

Reno isn't likely at all. The company doesn't do much flying going east outside of to the main cities at MDW and DEN.

One thing Toledo really needs to some oil drilling to start back up at a lot of the old wells in the area. That would help a ton and would attract service from places like Houston and Dallas.

Which is the problem. The flights have to be nonstop from Toledo and to markets that will be supported with originating traffic. Chicago is always a good market, but American is mostly successful because of people needing to travel TO Toledo.

Who is needing to fly TO Toledo? What business is doing so well as to cause that much traffic to TOL?

Southwest doesn't make sense with them having 130 seat 737s at their fleet... if there was Southwest Light with the 60-70 seat jets, it might start making sense. But that would probably be Spirit... I don't know, I don't fly.

Looks at the dozens located in Arrowhead Park. Also remember, TOL doesn't serve just the city of Toledo. You also have to take into consideration those in Findlay, Defiance, etc...where TOL is the nearest airport for them to drive to.

Actually the seat number is now up to 143 on the -700s and 175 on the -800s. I can see your point, but it isn't entirely accurate. There is a point where small jets are just too expensive to fly over a 737 size aircraft. For this latest quarter, Southwest had a CASM (cost per available seat mile) around 12.9 cents. Let's say we plop a 737-700 on TOL-MDW. 143 seats going 214 miles...which gives us 30,602 seat miles. The cost to operate that flight is going to be just under $3950 one way. System wide load factor is around 78% give or take if memory serves me correctly. However, lets take it down to like 60% since TOL would be a new market and that's pretty comparable to what would be expected. That gives us roughly 85 passengers per flight. That still works out to be around $47 per passenger one way to cover the basic costs.

That is a pretty simplified way to look at it and isn't going to be entirely accurate, but revenue management is a different department and I don't even want to know what that formula really looks like. :)

However, lets look at American Eagle. Their CASM is around 16.5 cents. They typically operate a 50-seat ERJ 145 on TOL-ORD. So that means the total seat miles are around 10,700. Give us a total cost for the flight around $1765 give or take. Full flight would mean the cost is around $35 per pax...one way. Which they aren't...around 60% again which boosts the cost up to $59 per passenger to operate that flight. That isn't a problem for a high yielding route like what American has with TOL-ORD. It however isn't really going to work when dealing with a traditional low fare carrier.

So if Toledoans want low fare, nonstop service, it almost has to be done with a traditional mainline aircraft. There is some argument you can make it work on the EJets or larger, but there is still going to be higher costs than just running it on a 737 size jet. So to get the service that is being asked for, you almost have to go after the Allegiants, Southwests, and Spirits to make it happen. However, to serve the incoming business passengers a regional jet from a hub isn't a problem. They are traditionally going to be paying more in airfare so it covers the cost of the aircraft without much issue.

Why did this thread get banished to politics? Seems to be more about economic development than politics...especially since it is banished from the front page now. Can it be changed?

There are plenty of outside businesses that do business with companies in Toledo. Heck, a lot of the manufacturing plants in the area have execs or people fly into the area to visit them all the time. I'm not picking on anyone here because I've heard it from numerous people, but that is kind of the ignorance around here - "who wants to come to Toledo?" There are plenty of professional jobs that need to travel and come to Toledo for their business.

Again, nothing is going to change unless you get people who want to make things better...but hell since people don't come to Toledo for business who cares?

To get this thread back on the front page, I removed the inappropriate comments.

Thank you sir!

Avinsurer said: Again, nothing is going to change unless you get people who want to make things better...but hell since people don't come to Toledo for business who cares?

The market sets the matter. You can't "make it better" by retaining person X or person Y in job Z.

This area is in economic contraction, not expansion. Planning for expansion is extremely foolish. The honest and capable Port Authority guy would have managed the contraction. But we never put honest and capable people in charge of stuff like that, since anyone who says "contraction" is soon de-spooned and sent packing.

I was searching Google but cant find the number of gates Toledo has, I did see that Defiance has a airport, although not a commercial one like Toledo. I don't see why anyone from central to south or western Toledo area would drive to Detroit but along the northern area or the Point its is easier to go to Detroit. The price differences and a lot of direct flights does make a difference too.

I want to reiterate that I have nothing against flying out of TOL. I used to love to drive there and hop on a plane to Atlanta or NYC. Let's be honest...the thing that hurt the airport the most was the Delta/Northwest merger.

I know that cargo volume is way down. But, with TOL's close proximity to I-75 and being right on 1 80/90, I can't understand why there isn't a full court/all chips in press to sell the intermodal capabilities and location of the airport as a cargo destination.

Thoughts:

1. Attract companies like Amazon that have regional warehouses.

2. Use tax abatements

3. FedEx and UPS seem happy in their current airhub locations. Are there any smaller carriers that could be induced to relocate or expand here?

4. Is Kaptur the congressman for the airport? I get confused sometimes because of redistricting. Could her pull in Congress result (especially with base closures elsewhere) into the expansion of the airforce component out there?

The terminal at Toledo Express technically has 8 total gates. Covered loading bridges for smaller aircraft are available at Gate 1 and Gate 1A (actually two here). There are 5 traditional jetbridges at Gates 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6. Then there is Gate 7 which is the old American Eagle gate used when they had turboprops before they were boarded via jetbridge. It is just a stair case down to a ramp level doorway.

I agree, those in the Point and North are going to find it easier to go to Detroit. I also wonder how much the lack of considering the Turnpike for local use can also factor in it. I never knew many that used the Turnpike unless they were traveling a good distance. Heck down here, we have toll roads for a couple intra-city highways.

Price different and direct flights does make a difference. People have to use what is available or it can be lost, which is what has happened.

I agree that the intermodal situation needs to be addressed. You have a rail line that runs on the north side of the airport that can be tied in. Sine BAX pulled out, DHL has moved in and currently operates two nightly 767 freighters to Cincinnati and Minneapolis. You would think with the massive UPS ground hub in Maumee that they would position a couple aircraft there. Of course they have their regional hubs in Rockford and Louisville (main hub), so there is only so much they can positive around. FedEx is established at Indianapolis already, so that takes them out. However, again, they could easily park a plane or two in Toledo.

I have always thought that what Toledo needs to do is go after the smaller contract cargo carriers. Up in Ypsilanti they have Kalitta Air, National, and USA Jet based there. I would think those would be ideal target companies to try to get moved. Sierra West Airlines, which just announced they are setting up shop at TOL, fits into that category as well.

The other thing that needs to be targeted is getting maintenance bases setup at the airline. Fort Wayne benefits a good deal from have a Republic Airlines base there. The last time a traditional airline had a base in Toledo, that I can think of, was TransMeridian.

Kaptur doesn't cover Toledo Express since all the gerrymandering went crazy up there. Though I would think she would still have some pull since she represents the city of Toledo. When it comes to the military component right there are 4 traditional air national guard bases in Ohio. The refueling wing at Rickenbacker (Columbus) that has KC-135s stationed there, the intelligence operation at Springfield with UAVs, the airlift wing in Mansfield with C-27Js, and then the fighter wing in Toledo. The Rickenbacker base is probably the largest, so that won't move. Mansfield and Springfield bases are pretty much all those airports have so I'm not sure they can be consolidated any. If one had to pick, I would guess Mansfield would could be moved.

Part of me wonders if it isn't time to go all SimCity and start knocking stuff down and restart. If there was that capability, I would turn my focus back to Metcalf/Executive Airport. It is better situated in the Metro area and has very good highway access. It if right off 280 and 795 and there is a good deal of open land to play with. I would probably going in there and construct a new 8000' runway and then put in a new economical passenger terminal. Then move all the passenger operations to that facility. More realistically I would look at selling bonds to replace the terminal at Express Airport completely. Nothing major. Something that is highly energy efficient, simplistic, and has the ability to be easily expanded when able. The current facility is such a mishmash of band-aids that it is probably costing more in the long run to still use it. Get the terminal costs down and the airlines are happier.

"Is Kaptur the congressman for the airport? I get confused sometimes because of redistricting."

Toledo Express Airport land falls in Bob Latta's District 5 and not Marcy Kaptur's District 9. But that part of Lucas County may have been in District 5 even before the latest redistricting changes.

Lucas County and even the city of Toledo are split among the two districts. West Toledo is now in Latta's district. So it seems that if congressional input was needed, then both members of the House should be contacted, since the airport is a regional entity.

I believe this is the latest district map for U.S. House members.

If this is the latest district map, then the District 4 counties of Sandusky and Senecca are close enough to Toledo Express Airport that maybe that rep should be involved too, assuming the airport is viewed as a regional asset, and if some kind of congressional assistance was requested.

May 2008 Toledo Talk post titled The Future Of Transportation In Lake Erie West that gives info about air, rail, freight, people, intermodal, southeast Michigan, northwest Ohio, etc.

TT post about TMACOG's 2007 study titled On the Move 2007-2035 Transportation Plan that mentions LEW Global Logistics Hub which stated:

Lake Erie West Global Logistics Hub

From the policies file:

Freight Goal: Our region will be a world-class multi-modal freight transportation hub

Policy 8: To strengthen our role as a freight transportation hub, our region will work together to implement Lake Erie West Global Logistics Hub business plan. This plan comprises four major freight facilities: Toledo Express Global Logistics Park (see Policy 9), Trans-Pacific Inland Port (see Plan Project 1 and Policy 10), Golden Triangle Distribution Corridor, and the Toledo Seaport (see Policy 11). We will identify needed improvements/ resources; support public/private infrastructure investment for the sites, and connectivity between them (on public roads or off-road).

Policy 9: A regional priority is to expand use of the air freight mode and use of air facilities as intermodal hubs. This will include increasing airport capacity throughout the region and providing good road access. We will develop Toledo Express Airport as a major intermodal hub, to be known as the “Toledo Express Global Logistics Park,” with needed infrastructure improvements (including Plan Projects C-3, 4, 59 and 60) and creation of a “transportation opportunity district.”

Policy 10: To expand freight capacity, we will work to increase use of and multi-modal access to rail freight. This will include supporting development of a Trans-Pacific Inland Port (see Plan Project 1), a rail/truck container facility designed to capture major freight flows from Asia, for distribution to the Midwest and eastern U.S.

Policy 11: Our region has an opportunity to expand waterborne freight movement. To do so, we will work to increase rail access to the Toledo Seaport, and we will support maximized use of the St. Lawrence Seaway and Great Lakes water system.

Policy 12: It is essential for our role as a freight hub to improve road access and capacity for trucks, and reduce modal conflicts. As part of this policy, we support:

1. Making the Ohio Turnpike more truck-friendly with "Easy Pass" electronic toll collection and quantity discounts.
2. Increasing the quality of township roads by requiring agri-business to meet same constraints as other industries, that is, eliminating exemptions that allow producers to use township roads without defraying costs of upgrades and maintenance.
3. Providing real-time information on road congestion via ITS that is suitable to trucker needs.

University of Toledo Intermodal Transportation Institute

Web site: The University of Toledo Intermodal Transportation Institute [link no longer works]

From the policies file:

Research Goal Statement: Our region will be a center of transportation research and innovation.

Policy 13: We need to diversify fuels for transportation, to insure fuel will be available on a long-term basis, with reduced dependence on foreign sources. To do so, our region will:

1. Support the work of a consortium of area universities to develop and commercialize hybrid vehicles.
2. Analyze current state and federal policies to propose changes and/or take advantage of existing policies in order to enhance alternative fuels production and use in our region.

Policy 14: With the amount of transported freight expected to double in the next 15 years, we need innovative ways to move goods more efficiently. Therefore, it is our region’s policy that:

1. Local jurisdictions and planning/development agencies should seek to locate industrial and distribution facilities near existing transportation terminals and interchanges.
2. We encourage development of multi-trailer terminals at Ohio Turnpike interchanges.
3. We should identify examples of trucking company collaboration on deliveries, and support implementation of such a system.
4. We should research ways to improve efficiency of transfer of goods between transportation modes.

Policy 15: To build on regional strengths, we need to support/expand transportation logistics and supply chain research in the region. This research should include looking at the potential to coordinate transportation to common suppliers/locations.

Policy 16: To enhance economic and technical development, our region will work to establish the identity of the Toledo Science and Technology corridor and the movement of people and ideas within this corridor.

Policy 17: Our region supports creating innovative traffic systems to improve traffic flow, such as modern roundabouts (see Policy 19), coordinated signal timing on all major arterials, and freeway management systems and other Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS).

What every happen to Brian Mcmahon's intermodal scheme? He kept saying the only thing standing in his way was Carty giving him water. He got his water and we never heard him from him again.

http://swampbubbles.com/bubble/a-simple-answer-for-the-mayor

http://swampbubbles.com/bubble/fred-lefebvre-wspd-with-brian-mcmahon-on-intermodal-facility

http://glasscityjungle.com/wordpress/2008/06/wspd-brian-mcmahons-intermodal-presentation/?wpmp_switcher=mobile

These are good read with the same cast of characters we still have today…

• Toledo Metropolitan Area Council of Governments (TMACOG) website
  • Northwest Ohio Intermodal Update - April 2011 - pdf file - looks like it was a presentation

Save the date. TMACOG sponsors the Ohio Conference on Freight - Sep 12-13, 2013 in Sandusky.

TMACOG event: Transportation Summit - Friday, March 22, 2013 in Perrysburg.