Toledo Talk

And now for something more pleasant to think about (hopefully)...

Happy Spring!! Heard birds singing walking into my office this morning. It was almost enough to make me not see the snow falling.

Almost. :)

created by valbee on Mar 20, 2013 at 07:43:39 am     Comments: 30

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Spring in Toledo! It's just like winter.

posted by Anniecski on Mar 20, 2013 at 08:57:18 am     #   2 people liked this

I was in the 70's this time last year!

posted by SensorG on Mar 20, 2013 at 08:59:02 am     #  

Damn groundhog is about as accurate as the weatherman.

posted by JeepMaker on Mar 20, 2013 at 09:02:51 am     #   2 people liked this

For those who want to study tornadoes found this on the NWS.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/envbrowser/

posted by Linecrosser on Mar 22, 2013 at 12:48:05 am     #  

Someone in Ohio is suing the ground hog for being so wrong about spring. It cracked me up.

posted by jackie on Mar 22, 2013 at 12:21:24 pm     #  

Watched 11's forecast Wednesday they predicted a storm that was in OK, KS area to swing north and hit us late Sunday, looking at the NWS that storm seems to be going straight East. So much for the certified most arrogant weather forecast.

posted by Linecrosser on Mar 22, 2013 at 12:52:10 pm     #  

This is an interesting view, click on 24hour loop.
http://www.weather.gov/satellite#wv

posted by Linecrosser on Mar 22, 2013 at 12:57:44 pm     #  

posted by Linecrosser on Mar 22, 2013 at 01:10:20 pm     #  

jackie posted at 12:21:24 PM on Mar 22, 2013:

Someone in Ohio is suing the ground hog for being so wrong about spring. It cracked me up.

Washington Post story Ohio prosecutor seeks death penalty for Punxsutawney Phil after bad forecast

Today groundhogs, tomorrow human weather forecasters will be sentenced to death for bad predictions.

The lawyer is joking, of course.

The prosecuting attorney of Butler County, Ohio, Michael Gmoser, wants the groundhog to pay for his flawed prediction, with his life.

Gmoser said in a phone interview that waking up to snow and temperatures in the teens on the second day of spring served as motivation for the indictment.

“When he betrays us like this, something has to be done,” Gmoser said.

Gmoser expects Phil to appeal the indictment. “His defense will be he didn’t know his rear end from a hole in the ground,” Gmoser said.

The indictment comes just three days after TheOnion.com satirically wrote the groundhog had been beheaded for his inaccurate prediction.

Good for the groundhogs for honking everyone off with bad forecasts. After all, groundhogs in the northern U.S. are still hibernating in early February. Since the forecasting groundhogs have to be woken up to make their predictions, they probably get pissed off and intentionally forecast a false hope. Squirrels are out all winter, and they should be used to make the February 2 prediction.

posted by jr on Mar 22, 2013 at 01:27:38 pm     #  

Groundhogs...woodchucks...whatever you want to call them are better off as fertilizer or food for the coyotes. I shake my head every year at people praising a rodent that is nothing but destructive.

posted by JustaSooner on Mar 22, 2013 at 01:49:16 pm     #  

"I shake my head every year at people praising a rodent that is nothing but destructive."

Lighten up. It's Friday.

posted by jr on Mar 22, 2013 at 02:18:27 pm     #  

For me, the dreaded varmint is a raccoon. They live all through the Village of Holland. You can see them frequently diving into the storm drains at night. They raid my bird feeders, eat my koi and goldfish and make a moonscape out of one of my gardens turning the soil over looking for grubs. Last year a Momma and three young'uns took up residence in one of the Red Oaks in the back yard. Every morning raccoon poop all over the deck. Lovely.

posted by holland on Mar 22, 2013 at 04:18:04 pm     #  

Raccoons aren't a huge deal in my neighborhood as they are in many other parts of the Point but we do have a few around. Squirrels are my arch enemy. Destructive, good for nothing rats with bushy tails. Chew off the lower branches of ornamentals, gnaw on the roof shingles, always digging up freshly planted flowers or gnawing the blooms off mature ones. May the hawks and eagles get every last damn one of them!

posted by Foodie on Mar 22, 2013 at 04:36:14 pm     #  

I'm with you on the squirrel issue. I watched a squirrel once run up and down a magnolia tree taking a bite out of every magnolia bud that was just about to blossom. GRRRRRR. However its probably rabbits nipping off the lower branches of your ornamentals. That's their MO.

posted by holland on Mar 22, 2013 at 04:57:21 pm     #  

Oh come on the groundhog is certified most accurate isn't he?

posted by Linecrosser on Mar 22, 2013 at 05:25:00 pm     #  

Fulton and Henry counties are on the northern edge of a Winter Storm Watch, issued by the northern Indiana NWS. But it seems that counties south of the Toledo area are more likely to receive the bulk of the snow on Sunday and Monday.

Fulton County

Statement as of 3:45 AM CDT on March 23, 2013

... Winter Storm Watch in effect from Sunday morning through
Monday afternoon...

The National Weather Service in northern Indiana has issued a
Winter Storm Watch... which is in effect from Sunday morning
through Monday afternoon.

Hazardous weather...

  • timing... snow will increase in coverage and intensity during
       the day Sunday with the heaviest snow expected Sunday evening
       into early Sunday night. Snow will decrease in intensity Monday
       morning... but additional light accumulations are possible.
  • Snow accumulations... storm total snow accumulations of 4 to 8
       inches are possible by early Monday afternoon.


Lucas County

Currently, the Cleveland NWS is forecasting 3 to 6 inches of snow for the Findlay and Mansfield areas and 2 to 4 inches for Toledo and areas east along the lake shore.

posted by jr on Mar 23, 2013 at 08:30:59 am     #  

Linecrosser: did a meteorologist punch your pregnant mama in the belly while you were gestating? I am puzzled at your weathercaster anger.

While admittedly the stations will hype a powerful storm (and sometimes hype storms that turn out to be less severe) I would rather rely on trained meteorologists to keep me posted to potential danger than to return to the not-so-distant past when a tornado warning consisted of seeing a funnel cloud in the backyard.

posted by historymike on Mar 23, 2013 at 08:54:03 am     #   2 people liked this

Lol Mike, they have their place, patting themselves on the back every evening at 6 doesn't impress me however. I prefer to look on the internet for myself and see what is happening weather-wise.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/cle/

posted by Linecrosser on Mar 23, 2013 at 09:14:17 am     #  

My favorite, and always accurate TV weatherman.

http://imminent.com/writing/2011/eyewitness-weather-cliff-mass-and-kuow

posted by holland on Mar 23, 2013 at 12:33:45 pm     #  

This guy is good too. Last August, oldhometown shared this old video clip of Paul Lynde doing the Weather at WSPD-TV Toledo 1978.

posted by jr on Mar 23, 2013 at 01:29:25 pm     #  

Winter Storm Watch issued for Lucas County and the rest of northern Ohio.

Statement as of 4:06 PM EDT on March 23, 2013

... Winter Storm Watch in effect from Sunday evening through
Monday afternoon...

The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a Winter
Storm Watch... which is in effect from Sunday evening through
Monday afternoon.

  • Accumulations... 4 to 6 inches of snow.
  • Timing... snow will develop early Sunday evening and continue into
    Monday.
  • Winds... northeast 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.
  • Impacts... snow will make travel hazardous Sunday night and
    Monday.
  • Temperatures... in the lower 30s.
  • Target Area
    • Cuyahoga
    • Erie
    • Geauga
    • Huron
    • Lorain
    • Lucas
    • Mahoning
    • Medina
    • Ottawa
    • Portage
    • Sandusky
    • Summit
    • Trumbull
    • Wood

posted by jr on Mar 23, 2013 at 04:13:49 pm     #  

Forgot to add to the above:

A Winter Storm Watch means that heavy snow is possible. If you are within the watch area... remain alert to rapidly changing weather conditions. Stay tuned to the National Weather Service or the local news media for the latest updates and possible warnings.

Still some uncertainty with the forecast, so it could be downgraded tomorrow to a Winter Weather Advisory. If it gets upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning on Sunday, then the heavier snow totals would be more likely.


3:55 p.m., Sat, Mar 23, 2013 Cleveland NWS area forecast discussion

storm system will move through the area late sunday through monday. differences in the models make for a degree of uncertainty. the sref and the nam are similar with the moisture fields while the gfs is drier and further south with the low. wpc snow totals following a more northerly track of the low and did go with that more northerly solution in the resulting snowfall grids.

sunday night the surface low will move across southern/central ohio with moderate...possibly periods of heavy snow across portions of the area. grids have around 5 inches across the southern tier and 2 to 4 further north. most zones will either have wording of 4 to 6 or 3 to 5 in the areas where the watch will be in effect with less to the northeast.

monday ... energy will quickly translate to the east coast during the morning. deep moisture will remain across the area however as the low fills. will have snow continuing through the day however intensity will decrease from the morning into the afternoon as dynamics pull east.

for the event am expecting roughly a 6 to 8 inch max across southern/southwestern counties tapering down to 2 to 4 inches far northeast ohio and nwrn pa.

also some question if warning amounts will be met across the northern tier from Toledo to cleveland...with lowest confidence right now at Toledo ...especially if the gfs ends up being right.

however warning amounts will not be too far south so right now will have the northern tier of counties in the watch.


I think the translation is that by Sunday morning or early Sunday afternoon, the NWS will have enough data to conclude that Lucas County will be downgraded to a Winter Weather Advisory with 2 to 4 inches of snow expected, and we'll end up with 1 to 3 inches.

posted by jr on Mar 23, 2013 at 04:32:49 pm     #  

GFS started trending last night to a southerly solution. NAM finally gave in this evening. Both are in pretty remarkable agreement right now.

Here is how it looks...
1" or less north of a line from Defiance to Bowling Green to Sandusky
1-3" south of that line and north of a line from Van Wert to Findlay to Upper Sandusky to Willard
3-6" south of that area all the way to the Ohio River - some spotty areas of 6"+ especially near the IN line.

Unless we see these things snap back, expect the winter headlines for the northern 2 tiers of counties to get dropped. Southern ohio will likely get added with either winter wx advisories or winter storm warnings - but really the snow amounts don't look like they'll meet criteria.

posted by JustaSooner on Mar 24, 2013 at 12:31:17 am     #  

The Winter Storm Watch has been removed. All of the extreme northern Ohio counties from IN to PA have no winter advisories, watches, or warnings.

Snowfall predictions:

  • Findlay - 3 to 6 in
  • Columbus - 4 to 6 in
  • Dayton - 5 to 9 in
  • Cincinnati - 4 to 7 in

Toledo forecast

Tonight: Cloudy...snow...mainly after midnight. Snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Cold. Near steady temperature in the lower 30s. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 90 percent.

Monday: Snow. Little or no additional snow accumulation. Highs in the upper 30s. North winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 90 percent.

posted by jr on Mar 24, 2013 at 08:58:10 am     #  

I saw a Mourning Cloak butterfly bopping around in our backyard this afternoon.

posted by jr on Mar 29, 2013 at 04:17:14 pm     #  

Do you think your Mourning Cloak will survive the snow?

posted by madjack on Mar 29, 2013 at 04:19:38 pm     #  

madjack posted at 04:19:38 PM on Mar 29, 2013:

Do you think your Mourning Cloak will survive the snow?

Mourning Cloaks survive our local winters by hibernating as adult butterflies. Unless a predator snags it, the Mourning Cloak will survive any forthcoming cold, spring weather because one item on its to-do list is to mate.

The earliest returning flycatcher bird species to our area is the Eastern Phoebe, which normally arrives by late March in our area. Eastern Phoebes will eat a butterfly.

The mourning cloak is another of Ohio's hibernating butterflies. The late summer adults may live eight months; this is longer than any other Ohio non-hibernating resident butterfly.

It can be found in all forested regions of the state and is often seen on warm sunny winter and early spring days flying around and basking in wooded clearings.

Overwintered adults mate in the spring.

[Mourning Cloak] can be found from March through October, though it peaks in June and July.

Mourning Cloaks do hibernate. They will find a tree cavity, or crawl underneath some loose bark. By overwintering, Mourning Cloaks get a head start over other butterflies in the Spring.

Like most butterflies, Mourning Cloaks are preyed upon by birds and other insect-eating animals.

posted by jr on Mar 29, 2013 at 05:17:24 pm     #   1 person liked this

During yesterday's sunny, mild day, I saw the first Mining Bees of the season in our backyard. They burrow up out of the ground in late March and April. And of course, a few crocuses are blooming now. So spring is slowly rolling in.

posted by jr on Mar 31, 2013 at 08:10:07 am     #  

Yay! We need all the native pollinators we can muster. The non-native, imported European Honey Bee is experiencing the worst hive losses recorded thus far. There is strong evidence that imidacloprid and other neonicotinoide pesticides, particularly those genetically engineered into agricultural crops, are affecting the Honey Bee. I'm going to construct a couple of bee hotels and place them in the gardens this year.

posted by holland on Mar 31, 2013 at 10:34:13 am     #  

Ooh... holland, can you tell me more about bee hotels? Do you make your own or buy them? If we weren't in just a congested neighborhood, we'd be exploring bee keeping, but I'm concerned that my neighbor would have an issue. From the little I've found online about bee hotels, however, this looks like something we could manage without creating any problems for anyone around us.

posted by valbee on Mar 31, 2013 at 01:32:13 pm     #