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May 21 Forecast

From SPC, forecast for Saturday, May 26, 2007.

Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
D4: Thu, May 24, 2007 - Fri, May 25, 2007 D7: Sun, May 27, 2007 - Mon, May 28, 2007
D5: Fri, May 25, 2007 - Sat, May 26, 2007 D8: Mon, May 28, 2007 - Tue, May 29, 2007
D6: Sat, May 26, 2007 - Sun, May 27, 2007 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)

AY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0403 AM CDT MON MAY 21 2007

VALID 241200Z - 291200Z

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY...MAY 26TH...FROM PARTS OF THE
LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION...

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE
AMPLIFIED EARLY WEEK UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY
THE WEEKEND. STRONGER WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN TIER STATES. AND...IN THE WAKE OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PROGGED LIFT INTO THE EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES THIS COMING
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO
EVOLVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS WEEK...BEFORE
ACCELERATING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
LATEST GFS/MREF AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
FAIRLY STRONG WAVE ALONG POLAR FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A RETURN
FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF FLATTENING
EASTERN RIDGE. IN MODERATELY STRONG AND SHEARED MEAN FLOW
REGIME...DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BROAD AREA OF DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL.

..KERR.. 05/21/2007