Obama Campaign's Memo to Superdelegates
April 24, 2008 7:13 p.m.
FR: Obama Campaign
RE: The strongest candidate to face John McCain
DA: April 24, 2008
Who's the strongest candidate to take on John McCain?
After 45 contests, Senator Obama has won more delegates, twice as many states and territories, and more of the popular vote. He's won in every part of the country, and has scored victories among every segment of electorate. He's inspired Democrats, Independents, and Republicans, building an unprecedented coalition of more than 1.4 million contributors. And when it comes to head-to-head match-ups versus John McCain, Obama performs better than Clinton in key states and shows the potential to put new states in play for Democrats up and down the ballot.
Polling data from across the country, from large states and small, reflects the advantage Senator Obama would bring in a race this fall. His ability to expand the Democratic base, and his ability to capture the crucial Independent vote, make him a stronger candidate than Senator Clinton, who would enter the fall campaign with the highest unfavorable ratings of any nominee in half a century.
California: Obama beats McCain by 27, Clinton beats him by 23. (SurveyUSA, 2/23)
New York: A February poll of Clinton's home state shows her beating McCain by 11, while Obama beats McCain by 10. (Quinnipiac, 3/18)
New Jersey: Obama and Clinton both beat McCain by 5. (Farleigh Dickinson, 3/30)
Illinois: Obama beats McCain by 29 in his home state, while Clinton wins by 9. (SurveyUSA, 2/28)
Iowa: Obama up 7, Clinton down 6. (SurveyUSA, 4/17),
Among Independents: Obama up 9, Clinton down 31. (Rasmussen, 3/31)
North Carolina: Clinton trails McCain by 11, Obama ties him. (Rasmussen, 4/10)
Among Independents: Obama up 8, Clinton down 16. (Rasmussen, 4/10)
Oregon: Obama up 9, Clinton up only 1 (SurveyUSA, 4/17) A march poll showed Obama up 6 and Clinton down 6 (Rasmussen, 3/26)
Among Independents: Obama up 11, Clinton up 4. (Rasmussen, 3/26)
Wisconsin: Obama up 5 while Clinton ties. (SurveyUSA, 4/17) A March poll showed Obama up 4 and Clinton down 4. (WPR, 3/26)
Among Independents: Obama up 17, Clinton up 2. (Rasmussen, 3/26)
Michigan: Obama trailing by 1, Clinton trailing by 3. (Rasmussen, 3/25) A February poll showed Obama up 8 and Clinton tied. (Rasmussen, 2/17)
New Mexico: Obama up by 3, Clinton down by 3. (Rasmussen, 4/8)
Among Independents: Obama up 8, Clinton down 5. (Rasmussen, 4/8)
Nevada: Obama leads by 4, Clinton leads by 1. (Rasmussen 3/19)
Minnesota: Obama up 14, Clinton up 5. (Rasmussen, 4/22)
Among Independents: Obama up 9, Clinton down 14. (Rasmussen 3/19)
Pennsylvania: Clinton up 9, Obama up 8 (Rasmussen, 4/9)
Among Independents: Obama down 1, Clinton down 19. (Rasmussen, 4/9)
Making new states competitive
Colorado: Obama up 3, Clinton down 14. (Rasmussen, 4/19) A February poll showed up Obama up 9 and Clinton down 6. (SurveyUSA, 2/28)
Among Independents: Obama up 9, Clinton down 13. (Rasmussen, 3/17)
North Dakota: Obama up 4, Clinton down 19. (SurveyUSA, 2/28)
Among Independents: Obama up 9, Clinton down 29. (Survey USA, 2/28)
Virginia: Obama down 8, Clinton down 16. (SurveyUSA, 4/17)
Among Independents: Obama up 10, Clinton down 8. (SurveyUSA, 3/16)
Montana: Obama down 5, Clinton down 18 (Rasmussen, 4/6)
Obama down 2, Clinton down 12 (Rasmussen, 4/6)
Texas: Obama down only 1, Clinton down 7 (SurveyUSA, 2/28)
on Apr 30, 2008 at 11:30:38 pm
Aren't like, a good 75 percent of those poll numbers dated before Bittergate and Pastor Disaster Redux? Oh and before the Pennsylvania ABC debate and the Pennsylvania Primary, too?
Nearly half of Democrats (48 percent) think Hillary Clinton has a better chance of beating John McCain in November -- 10 percentage points higher than the 38 percent who think Barack Obama can win, according to a FOX News poll released Wednesday (4/30). This represents a significant shift from March, when Democrats said Obama was the candidate more likely to beat McCain. Source.
According to a New York Times/CBS News poll, 51 percent of Democratic voters now say they expect Obama to win their party's nomination. That's an 18 point-slide from a month ago when 69 percent said they expected Obama to take on Republican John McCain in the November presidential election. Source. Published 4/30.
Barack Obama is now engaging in Operation Save My Superdelegates, per his campaign memo.
If you count Michigan and Florida, Hillary Clinton is actually winning the popular vote. Yeah, yeah, I know we're (as of now) not counting them. Whatev. But even Howard Dean is now saying that the popular vote tally may not matter, according to a 4/25 Financial Times report. "The Democratic party's superdelegates have every right to overturn the popular vote and choose the candidate they believe would be best equipped to defeat John McCain in a general election, according to Howard Dean, chairman of the US Democratic National Committee."
posted by jmleong
on May 01, 2008
at 01:55:22 am
NBC/WSJ poll from yesterday:
In the survey, 43 percent of registered voters say they have major concerns that McCain is too closely aligned with the current administration.
- 34 percent say they’re bothered by Obama’s “bitter” remarks
- 32 percent have a major problem with the Illinois senator’s past associations with Wright and the 1960s radical William Ayers
In other words, Bush is a bigger albatross around McCain's neck than Wright is around Obama's. You wouldn't know that from watching FOX News though. I guarantee that if you turn it on right now, Wright will be mentioned within 2 minutes. Those wingnuts really have it in for him.
Clips like this below should be widely disseminated.
It's interesting how all the news channels repeat the same angle over and over, like they're in the marketing game and not the analyst racket. They do it so poorly, it's comical.
posted by charlatan
on May 01, 2008
at 06:36:21 pm
If Obama could manage to defeat the Rovian Clinton machine, then he will have no problem beating McCain.
Interesting you should say that, since the Actual Karl Rove will indeed be working for McCain.
He sucks much less than Clinton or McCain.
In what ways, plz?
You wouldn't know that from watching FOX News though. I guarantee that if you turn it on right now, Wright will be mentioned within 2 minutes. Those wingnuts really have it in for him.
Yes, it's their drumbeat right now. In fairness to FOX broadcasting it every two minutes, they're probably aware that many of us can't bear to watch their channel for more than two minutes at a time.
posted by jmleong
on May 02, 2008
at 01:28:48 am
Bill Clinton Campaign Chairman and Hillary Clinton '08 Advisor Mickey Kantor tells George Stephanapoulos and James Carville: "Look at Indiana...it doesn't matter if we win. Those people are shit. How would you like to be a worthless white ni**er?"
wow. the video was just taken down off youtube, but i'm pretty sure it will be reposted.