Toledo Talk

Severe Weather Discussion - June 18th 2014

Getting this posted while I have a few minutes. MCS moving across Lake Michigan into Western MI will move into the area later. A few severe storms ahead of the line may drop some decent sized hail. Main risk is going to be wind damage with the intensifying MCS.

Short term models keep the bulk of the MCS in Michigan, but isolated storms for IN & OH. Upper air winds support this track of the MCS, but later tonight a northwest flow will setup allowing any subsequent complexes to move SE over the bulk of Ohio.

MCD from the SPC

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1061
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1032 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI...NRN INDIANA...NWRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 181532Z - 181730Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ADVANCING ACROSS SRN LAKE MI ATTM WILL MOVE
INTO/ACROSS THE SRN LOWER MI VICINITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A
SOMEWHAT CONVECTIVELY STABILIZED AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM SUGGESTS THAT
SEVERE THREAT MAY BE LIMITED/LOCALIZED -- AT LEAST INITIALLY...BUT
WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY WITH TIME.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED BOW ECHO MOVING
ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF LAKE MI ATTM...AND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO
SRN LOWER MI IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
MCS HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT STABILIZED BY EARLIER CONVECTION...WITH BETTER
INSTABILITY CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR AND S OF THE SRN BORDER OF LOWER
MI. STILL...THE DEGREE OF ORGANIZATION OF THIS BOW AS INDICATED BY
RADAR SUGGESTS THAT LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH MARGINAL HAIL
MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE BOW MOVES EWD ACROSS THE REGION AT 40
KT. IN ADDITION...SOME RISK THAT INTENSIFICATION ALONG THE SRN
FLANK OF THE BOW SEEMS TO EXIST GIVEN THE MORE FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT INTO INDIANA/OH -- DESPITE INDICATIONS TO
THE CONTRARY WITHIN RECENT WRF-HRRR RUNS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS MCS -- PARTICULARLY ON ITS SRN FRINGE
-- FOR SIGNS THAT A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

..GOSS/MEAD.. 06/18/2014

created by JustaSooner on Jun 18, 2014 at 01:16:49 pm
updated by JustaSooner on Jun 18, 2014 at 01:20:02 pm
    News     Comments: 34

source      versions


Comments ... #

Bring it: I need the water for my lawn and plants. It has been over a week since the last decent rain, and we are down a few inches for the month of June.

posted by historymike on Jun 18, 2014 at 01:48:58 pm     #  

what is a WW?

posted by MIJeff on Jun 18, 2014 at 01:50:27 pm     #  

Weather Watch.

posted by gamegrrl on Jun 18, 2014 at 01:51:54 pm     #  

More specifically, a Severe Weather Watch. One is going up momentarily.

posted by gamegrrl on Jun 18, 2014 at 01:55:47 pm     #  

To date we have received 1.18" for the month in Toledo, with the average for June about 3.57". So to correct the above comment, we are actually down only about an inch for the month, based on the percentage of days that have already passed.

Still, I want rain. Lots of it.

posted by historymike on Jun 18, 2014 at 01:55:50 pm     #  

Watch is up...

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 18, 2014 at 01:57:36 pm     #  

Pretty strong line of storms starting to build, with a few scattered cells in front of the line:

posted by historymike on Jun 18, 2014 at 01:58:02 pm     #  

Whoa - JustaSooner beat me by 26 seconds with the radar clip. Better work on my game.

posted by historymike on Jun 18, 2014 at 01:59:12 pm     #   4 people liked this

I can do without the straight line winds and hail, but I'll take the rain. Just to be cautious, I'm moving things that could be tossed by the wind: Flower pots, etc. Nothing much I can do to protect my car from hail, so I'll just keep my fingers crossed.

posted by gamegrrl on Jun 18, 2014 at 01:59:17 pm     #  

Here is a current radar grab showing QLCS (Quasi Linear Convective Systems) with the isolated storm ahead of it moving through Southern MI and N IN.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 18, 2014 at 02:00:25 pm     #  

I just bought a 50-pound table umbrella base this morning to replace the old (and wimpy) 25-pound base that cannot stand up to winds over 30 mph.

Still, I shall exercise caution and close the umbrella. No need to tempt fate.

posted by historymike on Jun 18, 2014 at 02:00:52 pm     #  

historymike posted at 01:59:12 PM on Jun 18, 2014:

Whoa - JustaSooner beat me by 26 seconds with the radar clip. Better work on my game.

I have to work tonight so that'll limit my updates. ;)

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 18, 2014 at 02:01:16 pm     #  

We just bought a heavy-duty base, too, historymike. No tempting fate here, either. That umbrella is as closed as I can get it.

posted by gamegrrl on Jun 18, 2014 at 02:11:34 pm     #   1 person liked this

Looks like there might be something of a bow echo forming in the line that is headed for the Lansing/Ann Arbor area:

Storm 6-18-14 possible bow echo

posted by historymike on Jun 18, 2014 at 02:15:54 pm     #  

The SPC link for our watch box.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0321.html

This is an updating map of warned counties, not a snapshot.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0321_warnings.gif

posted by jr on Jun 18, 2014 at 02:26:10 pm     #  

Quick radar update...

Most immediate area is going to be in Lenawee County with a severe storm that is moving ENE, even though the warning is for E. Hail and wind main threat. A very small area of rotation with it just north of Clayton, but this is mostly going to be tide to the main updraft area and the hail core.

Then another cell moving up through Delta right now into NE Fulton County is not severe, just some moderate rain.

Main line is somewhat broken. One section is running from Coldwater north to Lansing that is not severe right now. Then the warned area is from Centreville in SW MI through Goshen IN and to the SW. Wind damage and estimated 65 mph winds are being reported with this line. Looking at radar, wind estimates are up to 51 kts with the leading edge of the line north of US 6 in Northern IN.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 18, 2014 at 02:51:53 pm     #  

ASOS unit in Adrian had 81 mph gust measured.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 18, 2014 at 03:27:46 pm     #  

Damaging winds are going to be approaching Britton soon and may go north of Deerfield towards Dundee. New warning out for Monroe County now.

Storm in NW Lucas County is trying to increase in intensity, with some nickle hail possible and winds to 50.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 18, 2014 at 03:32:26 pm     #  

Just had some pea-to-marble sized hail in West Toledo in this first cell before the main line.

posted by historymike on Jun 18, 2014 at 03:45:44 pm     #  

Storm in Lucas is now Severe Warned.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
345 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A

  • SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
    NORTHERN LUCAS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OHIO
    NORTHWESTERN OTTAWA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OHIO
    NORTHEASTERN WOOD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OHIO
  • UNTIL 445 PM EDT
  • AT 342 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE GOLF BALL SIZE
    HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS
    LOCATED NEAR HOLLAND...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.
  • LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
    TOLEDO...
    ROSSFORD...
    NORTHWOOD...
    OREGON...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE NOW AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 18, 2014 at 03:46:03 pm     #  

F**king hail is beating the bejeezus out of my lilies and foxglove.

posted by historymike on Jun 18, 2014 at 03:49:09 pm     #  

But my 50-lb. umbrella base? Standing tall and not even budging in the strong winds. Take that, storm.

posted by historymike on Jun 18, 2014 at 03:51:50 pm     #  

Decent sized hail core now. This is via the DTX radar up in Pontiac.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 18, 2014 at 03:55:29 pm     #  

Nothing bigger than dime-sized in my neighborhood, but we are at the northern edge of the cell. Probably a lot bigger hail 1-2 miles south of me.

posted by historymike on Jun 18, 2014 at 03:57:00 pm     #  

Weird, it hasn't even really rained here in Sylvania. No wind. Just a few sprinkles that dried as soon as they hit the sidewalk.

posted by mom2 on Jun 18, 2014 at 04:00:20 pm     #  

Getting more wind damage reports in NE IN, warning has been issued for the entire line now from south of Hillsdale to St. Joe, IN.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A

  • SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
    EASTERN DE KALB COUNTY IN NORTHEAST INDIANA...
    EASTERN STEUBEN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST INDIANA...
    SOUTHERN HILLSDALE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...
    DEFIANCE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OHIO...
    FULTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OHIO...
    NORTHWESTERN HENRY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OHIO...
    WILLIAMS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OHIO...
  • UNTIL 445 PM EDT
  • AT 352 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
    EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF FAYETTE TO EDGERTON TO HICKSVILLE
    TO GRABILL...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 18, 2014 at 04:00:44 pm     #  

mom2 posted at 04:00:20 PM on Jun 18, 2014:

Weird, it hasn't even really rained here in Sylvania. No wind. Just a few sprinkles that dried as soon as they hit the sidewalk.

The storm is already east of you. You'll have the line coming through in about an hour or so that'll get you some water. :)

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 18, 2014 at 04:01:42 pm     #  

Thanks! I could do without wind and hail, but a little rain for the lawn would be nice.

posted by mom2 on Jun 18, 2014 at 04:03:27 pm     #  

Neat. Saw the clouds pass to the north of our building in downtown toledo, super menacing. Can't wait for the next line.

posted by endcycle on Jun 18, 2014 at 04:09:03 pm     #  

I am near Secor/Laskey, and in addition to the hail and winds we received a good 1/2" of rain over the past 35 minutes. The storm track looks like it just clipped Sylvania Township on this side of town, with West Toledo and Ottawa Hills getting most of that cell.

Noticeably cooler, too: it was pushing 90 before the storm, and my thermometer is now at 80 degrees.

posted by historymike on Jun 18, 2014 at 04:10:44 pm     #  

I want the rain, but can live with out the wind. That said, my 13ft umbrella has a 150lb base and isn't going anywhere. I hope I can say the same for my roof.

posted by SensorG on Jun 18, 2014 at 04:42:40 pm     #  

Warning for Lucas/Wood

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A

  • SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
    LUCAS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OHIO
    NORTHERN WOOD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OHIO
  • UNTIL 545 PM EDT
  • AT 442 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
    LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
    HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE
    LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES WEST OF SYLVANIA TO 6
    MILES WEST OF WHITEHOUSE TO 26 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WHITEHOUSE...AND
    MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

posted by JustaSooner on Jun 18, 2014 at 04:47:09 pm     #  

"I am near Secor/Laskey, and in addition to the hail and winds we received a good 1/2" of rain over the past 35 minutes."

Working from homebase not far from you, my rain gauge recorded 0.32 inches of rainfall between 3:30 p.m. and 4:00 p.m. We received no hail and little to no wind.

It's pretty dark out for only 5:00 p.m. Some recent wind gusts have cooled things off a bit. Temps now are at 72 degrees. The oak trees limit my view of the sky, but it appears that it's getting a bit ugly out.

I may have to put the Thundershirt on me instead of the dog.

At 5:01 p.m., the weather radio broadcast that covers Lucas County went off the air. Maybe lightning hit their tower.

posted by jr on Jun 18, 2014 at 05:04:22 pm     #  

jr posted at 05:04:22 PM on Jun 18, 2014:

"I am near Secor/Laskey, and in addition to the hail and winds we received a good 1/2" of rain over the past 35 minutes."

Working from homebase not far from you, my rain gauge recorded 0.32 inches of rainfall between 3:30 p.m. and 4:00 p.m. We received no hail and little to no wind.

It's pretty dark out for only 5:00 p.m. Some recent wind gusts have cooled things off a bit. Temps now are at 72 degrees. The oak trees limit my view of the sky, but it appears that it's getting a bit ugly out.

I may have to put the Thundershirt on me instead of the dog.

At 5:01 p.m., the weather radio broadcast that covers Lucas County went off the air. Maybe lightning hit their tower.

Yes, you are only a mile away, and we had hail for nearly 10 minutes. For 5-10 minutes we had a few impressive gusts, enough to make the giant oak trees across the street sway back and forth; they were probably in the 30-35 mph range.

That cell was really small and compact, and it was traveling from the southwest to the northeast, slicing through Ottawa Hills and entering Lake Erie north of Point Place.

posted by historymike on Jun 18, 2014 at 05:22:36 pm     #