Toledo Talk

Severe Weather - July 26th and 27th

Active severe weather weekend coming up.

Today - Slight Risk in place for area from Defiance - Findlay - Marion and to the south. Also included is much of Northern Indiana. Then areas of Central & Southern IL and IN area in a moderate risk for those going into those area. Main risk very large hail and significant wind damage. There is a chance of a stray storm popping up during the afternoon/evening in NW OH, but nothing that looks too worrisome right now.

Sunday - Slight Risk for the entire area including the SE corner of MI and the SE 1/2 of IN. A Moderate Risk is in place for areas of South central and SE OH. Probability of some significant severe weather exists for much of the state - better chance in the MDT risk area. For Northern Ohio it will be an early show. NAM fires storms by 11AM across Southern MI through NW OH. This should evolve into a complex of storms that will push east of I-75 by 2-3PM and completely into Eastern OH by 4-5PM. Very late Sunday could see some wrap around rain. Now looking at GFS, it has been running late in timing compared to the NAM and kicks off storms by mid to late afternoon and out of the area by later in the evening.

created by JustaSooner on Jul 26, 2014 at 03:00:29 am     Outdoors     Comments: 23

source      versions


Comments ... #

A nice, moderate, all-day soaker would be great, no fireworks needed.
C'mon Justa, make it happen.

posted by McCaskey on Jul 26, 2014 at 11:56:41 am     #  

Update...

Storms are going to start rapidly going up over NW OH and N IN through the next couple of hours. One cell is over Delta moving generally E to slightly ESE. Some small hail and gusty winds initially will be the main threat until the updrafts get established to support severe weather.

Slight Risk for today was expanded north to include roughly everyone along/south of I-80.

Tomorrow the SPC Day 2 increase severe chances into Western Ohio and has pulled the MDT risk back some to now include Central OH.

posted by JustaSooner on Jul 26, 2014 at 01:50:35 pm     #  

Storm around Bryan is starting to get a bit strong. Some small hail with it up to 0.83". Storm moving through the Pemberville/Bradner areas in Wood County may have some small hail up to a half inch.

posted by JustaSooner on Jul 26, 2014 at 02:31:54 pm     #  

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1469
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IND...WRN/CNTRL OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 261841Z - 261945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS NERN IND AND NWRN OH
THIS AFTERNOON. AN ACCOMPANYING THREAT FOR ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS
AND LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE...BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER COVERAGE
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A WW.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 1-2 HRS
ACROSS NERN IND AND NWRN OH...AND APPEARS TO PRIMARILY BE INITIATED
BY LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN UPPER IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH
SRN WI. 18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY NOTABLE
LOW-LEVEL MESOSCALE FEATURES OR SOURCES OF CONVERGENCE. CLOUD COVER
HAS INHIBITED HEATING SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING...BUT THE AIR MASS IS
STILL RELATIVELY MOIST /SFC DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
F/...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO ADVECT EWD WITH TIME INTO
PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL OH. AS A RESULT...ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION IS
LIKELY INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON...WITH MLCAPE VALUES FORECAST TO
APPROACH 1500-2000 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION...PERHAPS IN THE FORM OF
SUPERCELLS OR SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS...IN THE PRESENCE OF 40-50 KT OF
NWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW. AS A RESULT...AT LEAST A LOCALLY ENHANCED THREAT
FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY SUSTAINED TSTMS
THAT DEVELOP...WITH WW ISSUANCE CONTINGENT ON WHETHER TRENDS SUGGEST
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS.

..ROGERS/HART.. 07/26/2014

posted by JustaSooner on Jul 26, 2014 at 02:58:49 pm     #  

Storm over N Henry County is getting pretty tough now. Hail indication has sizes just over an inch near Gerald. Heaviest will stay north of Napoleon it appears and will move towards Liberty Center, Grand Rapids, and McClure.

posted by JustaSooner on Jul 26, 2014 at 03:02:02 pm     #  

Watch is out for counties south of US 6.

posted by JustaSooner on Jul 26, 2014 at 03:39:08 pm     #  

Today's round of storms are done. Quiet the rest of the day. More tomorrow.

posted by JustaSooner on Jul 26, 2014 at 05:13:23 pm     #  

Of course I say that and some showers and a storm or two pop up over SE MI and the Lake. LOL

posted by JustaSooner on Jul 26, 2014 at 06:01:11 pm     #  

JustaSooner posted at 05:13:23 PM on Jul 26, 2014:

Today's round of storms are done. Quiet the rest of the day. More tomorrow.

When did they start!?

posted by slowsol on Jul 26, 2014 at 06:40:55 pm     #  

Never saw a drop at the border all day.

posted by MIJeff on Jul 26, 2014 at 06:56:36 pm     #  

Nothing here either. Dry. No wind. Clouding up a little now.

posted by holland on Jul 26, 2014 at 07:04:10 pm     #  

slowsol posted at 06:40:55 PM on Jul 26, 2014:
JustaSooner posted at 05:13:23 PM on Jul 26, 2014:

Today's round of storms are done. Quiet the rest of the day. More tomorrow.

When did they start!?

If you focus on just Lucas County, then you were mostly dry unless you are in the southern parts. Everything from the first round stayed south of I-80 and the second batch was over SE MI and moved out to the lake quickly.

Estimate rainfall amounts per radar:

posted by JustaSooner on Jul 26, 2014 at 07:37:15 pm     #  

At 1:45 p.m, a Tornado Watch was issued that includes Lucas and Wood counties.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0447.html


At 1:40 p.m, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued that includes the rest of northwest Ohio and southeast Michigan

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0446.html

posted by jr on Jul 27, 2014 at 02:01:01 pm     #  

Sorry for the lack of updates. Nothing major to report right now. I'm actually in town, so you can blame me for the watches I guess. :-P

posted by JustaSooner on Jul 27, 2014 at 03:55:33 pm     #   1 person liked this

4:55 p.m. EDT mesoscale discussion issued by the Storm Prediction Center.


Numerous warned counties in Michigan as of about 5:15 p.m. EDT.


Radar snapshots from 5:15 p.m. EDT.

posted by jr on Jul 27, 2014 at 05:27:33 pm     #  

If we don't see any of this storm, I'm going to be very disappointed.

posted by slowsol on Jul 27, 2014 at 07:43:55 pm     #  

We have received about 11 drops of rain in West Toledo. Everything is going north or south of my house.

posted by historymike on Jul 27, 2014 at 08:48:22 pm     #  

We got 10 drops in Sylvania. Grrrrr.......

posted by McCaskey on Jul 27, 2014 at 09:24:47 pm     #  

One the plus side I charted to within five minutes when temps/dew point would drop. AC switch flipped to 'off' and will stay there most of the week.

posted by McCaskey on Jul 27, 2014 at 09:36:18 pm     #  

That was a whole lotta nuthin in Northwood. Is there a name for the condition that causes storms to approach then split around us? Lake Effect? It happens all the time! :( The grass is crispy and the 575 gallons we had in the rain barrels is down by more than half. Plus, feed corn is very stressed. :(

posted by nana on Jul 27, 2014 at 09:45:23 pm     #  

Nana it happens every where... So don't feel picked on. Back in Oklahoma we have the "Norman Bubble" that seems to cause most storms to split and about the city. It gets annoying, but there isn't any reason why it happens. Most attribute it to the storms wanting to avoid the largest concentration of chasers in the country and also the Storm Prediction Center and the other offices at the National Weather Center complex. :)

It is frustrating when it happens. Looking at some of the crops around here and the grass... Moisture is definitely in need.

posted by JustaSooner on Jul 27, 2014 at 11:01:58 pm     #   1 person liked this

I recorded no rainfall this weekend at our home in West Toledo. I've recorded 0.90 inches of rain for July. Last month, I recorded nearly five inches of rainfall. 3.87 inches of rain fell over the last two weeks of June. When the two months are combined, it probably looks like average.

Estimated rainfall map

This screen capture shows estimated rainfall amounts for Sun, Jul 27. A narrow area in Lucas County shows no rainfall. Most of the county shows a trace estimate.

posted by jr on Jul 28, 2014 at 12:00:34 am     #  

We got spit on for about 25 minutes here on the state line, enough to wet the sidewalks is about all.

posted by MIJeff on Jul 28, 2014 at 02:18:42 am     #