Within the city of Toledo, 8.5 percent of the 146,300 adult workers were seeking a job, and the Lucas County rate jumped to 7.8 percent. Those higher numbers of unemployed do not include thousands of workers whose factories were shut down this month to help domestic automakers deal with excessive inventories of unsold vehicles. Those cuts won't be reported until next month, but for those looking for work, the growing sense of frustration is palpable.

Statewide, Ohio had a 6.6 percent unemployment rate for June, up from 6.3 percent in May and from 5.7 percent in June, 2007. Michigan's unemployment rate remained flat in June at 8.5 percent, but still was the highest in the nation. Nationally, the unemployment rate remained flat at 5.5 percent, up from 4.6 percent in June, 2007.

The ranks of the unemployed swelled dramatically across northwest Ohio last month, according to the Ohio Department of Job and Family Services, which released county-level jobless estimates yesterday. The increase in unemployment across Ohio over the last two months - a full percentage point - was the largest two-month jump in the Buckeye state since 1981.

Not every sector was bleak. Service industries added 6,400 jobs in June, and leisure and hospitality employers added 2,900 jobs in Ohio, as did the government sector. Durable-good manufacturing added 1,600 jobs. The greatest job losses in June were in educational and health services, which lost 1,200 jobs, and the financial sector, which dropped 600 jobs.

It is no shocker, but a respected Wall Street ratings service claims that Toledo, most of Ohio, and all but one metro area in Michigan are in a recession, and have been for a while.

The analysis by Moody's Economy.com is based on statewide industrial production and local employment reporting. It found that Columbus, Akron, and Steubenville, Ohio, and Benton Harbor, Mich., are the only places in the two former industrial powerhouse states that aren't shedding jobs right now.

The study found that the broad U.S. economy appears to have escaped recession, but 170 metropolitan areas are in it. Nationally, though, the business cycle is framed by the downturns in the housing, banking, and finance sectors.

Dana Johnson, an economist with Comerica Bank who watches Michigan and Ohio's economies closely, said recently that Michigan, Ohio, and Indiana had the three worst performing economies over the last three years.

"Some of the common characteristics that are retarding growth in all three states are a significant overweight in auto production, a vulnerability to international competition from offshore manufacturers, and sluggish population growth," Mr. Johnson said in a report.

"Toledo's been having employment declines for quite a while," explained Megan Ellis, an assistant analyst with Economy.com. "The employment in Toledo peaked in the late 1990s and it's been declining pretty consistently since then. Manufacturing has been very hard hit."

Metro Toledo had 347,000 jobs in the first quarter of 2000 and 324,000 jobs two months ago, the study said. Of the 23,000 jobs lost locally during those eight years, 20,000 came from the manufacturing sector, Ms. Ellis said. Joblessness in Lucas County was 7.8 percent in June.

Statewide, both Michigan and Ohio were in recession since at least the last quarter of 2007, and perhaps longer, Ms. Ellis said. June unemployment rates were 6.6 percent in Ohio and 8.5 percent in Michigan.

Nationally, Moody's found 116 metro areas are at risk of economic contraction, which include Columbus and Akron. Steubenville is considered in "expansion."

Elsewhere in the country, the Moody's study found that Florida, Nevada, and Arizona are experiencing the biggest collapse in home prices after the biggest run-up in prices during the boom of 2001 to 2005. Their turnarounds will depend largely on when the housing free fall bottoms out.

The nation's most populous state, California, is a mixed bag. It has four metro areas in expansion, the two big agriculture centers of Bakersfield and Hanford and tech-heavy San Francisco and San Jose.