Toledo Talk

Snowmageddon 2018

It is with a heavy heart that I must announce that the weather terrorists are at it again. Friday the 12th into Saturday the 13th could bring us 0 to 100 inches of snow. Or a wintery mix. I leave it to the weather informed to post updates. Guess the rest of us will make a run on milk and bread (booze).

created by TrilbyGuy on Jan 09, 2018 at 03:47:03 pm     Other     Comments: 20

source      versions


Comments ... #

"... make a run on milk and bread (booze)."

Bourbon and beef jerky.


The only thing that you need to know about our weather for Friday and Saturday is that it will be different from our weather for tomorrow and Thursday.


From the Cle NWS:

Thursday: Rain likely, mainly after 2pm. Cloudy, with a high near 57. South wind 14 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Last Sunday morning, TOL's low temp was minus-5.

Looking past the mythical snowpocalypse ...

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 5.

Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 16.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 4.

Soak up that cloudy, rainy 57-degree day on Thursday.

These wild temp swings might snap body parts.

posted by jr on Jan 09, 2018 at 05:24:53 pm     #  

I miss justasooner.

posted by valbee on Jan 09, 2018 at 06:01:22 pm     #   7 people liked this

Trilby thks for the SitRep. Oiled up the wheels on my radio flyer for the trip to the beverage store in the am tomorrow. A lack of planning while not become my emergency.

posted by Mariner on Jan 09, 2018 at 06:23:51 pm     #  

*will

posted by Mariner on Jan 09, 2018 at 06:25:02 pm     #  

The city will plow the snow from Saturday's storm on Thursday. (Like they picked up the leaves that fell in December in October.)

posted by justread on Jan 09, 2018 at 06:33:14 pm     #   1 person liked this

valbee posted at 06:01:22 PM on Jan 09, 2018:

I miss justasooner.

Yes!

He is no longer on twitter either.

posted by Spaceace on Jan 09, 2018 at 07:08:53 pm     #  

I really wish there was a website that could help you look at weather for trips. I'm heading to Minnesota for a quick trip leaving Sunday returning Monday. So this storm Friday/Saturday has caught my eye and I'm trying to figure out if I'm going to have a problem on my trip (the trip can be cancelled, if necessary).

So far I have determined that leaving early would not be helpful, because I would just be driving into the storm. But I haven't seen anything about Sunday/Monday weather yet. I'm hoping that means nothing is on the horizon to be concerned with.

I'll look again Thursday or Friday, see if anything has popped up by then. If I'm missing a great website about weather while traveling from Point A to Point B, let me know!

posted by not_me on Jan 09, 2018 at 08:09:05 pm     #  

Justread: wife and I are still laughing. We live in 43614 and if we get this snow , I predict that the leaves will get plowed

posted by marving on Jan 09, 2018 at 08:57:31 pm     #  

The National Weather Service is my favorite source for weather when traveling and when not. http://www.weather.gov

Make sure to use the .gov version and not the .com mess.

For general use at the Toledo level, I access my own website http://toledoweather.info created years ago, which scarfs info from the NWS and and from a couple other places.

Area Forecast Discussions and Mesoscale Discussions get technical, but I prefer that information over the boiled down trivia, produced by the infotainment weathercasters, although it's the media's job to simplify the weather for us rubes.

Complicating things a bit for Toledo is the fact that the Toledo area is covered by three National Weather Service offices. Sometimes, it "feels" like Toledo is ignored by Cleveland.

Occasionally, the information provided by the other two NWS offices is more useful than what's produced by Cle, especially if the Cle office is distracted by a lake effect snow event.


Here are excerpts from the recent Hazardous Weather Outlook, issued by the Cleveland NWS at 8:23 p.m. on Tue, Jan 9, 2018.

http://toledoweather.info/hazardous-weather-outlook.html

this hazardous weather outlook is for north central ohio and northwest ohio.

.day one ... tonight.

there is a chance of rain after midnight. the rain may begin as a brief period of freezing rain.

.days two through seven ... wednesday through monday.

rain accompanied by a significant warm-up will arrive wednesday into thursday. this will support extensive snowmelt and river rises. minor flooding will be possible. due to the recent freeze, most rivers and creeks remain ice covered. conditions will favor ice break-up and increased risk for ice jams, especially thursday into friday.

also, there is a potential for a winter storm friday night. low pressure will move north out of the gulf coast states friday. rain early friday will mix with sleet and snow friday afternoon before changing to all snow friday night. some freezing rain is also possible during the transition. a significant snowfall is possible but the amount of freezing rain, sleet and snow will depend on the exact track of the low. continue to monitor later forecast for updates on this developing storm.

In other words, the Cle NWS does not know on Tuesday evening. They might know on Thursday night or Friday morning. Sometimes with systems like this, our snowfall amounts get significantly reduced by a longer than expected period of freezing rain because of a wobble in the storm track.


Excerpts from the most recent Area Forecast Discussion, issued by
the Cle NWS office.

http://toledoweather.info/area-forecast-discussions.html

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
701 pm est tue jan 9 2018

.short term /thursday through friday night/...

the short term begins thursday with models showing a moist mild southerly flow into the region. will have chance pops most places but will increase to likely mid/late afternoon west as an approaching cold front nears the area. the rain will continue to spread across the area thursday night as the cold front moves through.

the mild temps thursday however will be overshadowed by the upcoming winter storm moving into the area friday through saturday.

a wave will develop on the front in the al/ga area friday and move nne west of the spine of the appalachians. the 12z ecmwf and gfs are refreshingly similar on the path, at least at this time, although timing is off with the gfs 6 hours faster than the ecmwf with the low position at 12z saturday.

given that path and current temperature profiles, a significant period of freezing rain and sleet is possible friday evening through around midnight before turning to snow along and east of a holmes county to ashtabula county line.

more snow will occur west of that line but still expect a mix with the transition west of that line. the track of the heaviest snow - and this could change - currently looks favored from morrow county nne through richland county to lorain county. but again, this all depends of the final track of the low.

for saturday the low will quickly move to new england and will lingering wrap around moisture will taper snow from morning to afternoon but still have likely pops north central and northeast afternoon.


Excerpts from the most recent Area Forecast Discussion, issued by the Det/Pon NWS office.

area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
655 pm est tue jan 9 2018

light wintry mix transitioning to snow showers will be on the way out early friday as a cold front pushes through the region. with the arrival of the next arctic air mass, highs friday will be some 20 degrees cooler than thursday and back to seasonal normals. cold weather, with temps eventually falling back below normal by saturday, will be present through the weekend and the early part of next week due to another longwave trough setting up over the great lakes.

big story for the extended period remains the potential for a winter storm on friday night into saturday. an upper shortwave is progged to move over the pacific northwest thursday morning which will then track se over the rockies and help budge a cutoff low over the gulf coast states by friday.

this upper energy will then track up the ohio valley and lead to a developing surface low pressure system that will track northeastward up the spine of the appalachians.

model guidance is still highly variable on the track and strength of this system as it develops, which has a major impact on which areas will see accumulating snowfall.

the ecmwf has backed off a bit with its totals over our area but still advertises a significant winter storm, while the gfs continues to suggest that the system will be too far east for se michigan to see much snowfall at all.

current thinking is that the best chance for snowfall will be the eastern portion of our county warning area. for now the forecast remains low confidence as we wait to gather more observational data on the number of players (particularly the shortwave over the pacific northwest) that will have to come together for our area to see significant snowfall.


Excerpts from their most recent Area Forecast Discussion, issued by the northern Indiana NWS office.

area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
856 pm est tue jan 9 2018

quite the weather roller coaster this week, starting with fog, rain, and above normal temperatures wednesday into thursday. highs wednesday into thursday will be in the upper 40s and 50s. the combination of rain and melting snow could lead to minor flooding. on friday, colder air filters into the region, leading to a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow in the morning, then transitioning to all snow by the afternoon. travel could be hazardous. friday night into saturday we could see accumulating snow as a low pressure system moves through the area. arctic air and lake effect snow will filter in for the latter portion of the weekend and the start of next week.

long term ... (wednesday night through tuesday)
issued at 422 pm est tue jan 9 2018

...rain, winter storm, and the return of arctic air...

first, we`ll tackle low pressure system #1, which models generally agree on as far as timing/location go. in the upper levels, we see a longwave trough spread from the northern to the southern plains, with a strong ridge anchored in place over the atlantic ocean.

as the low pressure trough swings eastward thursday, it will bring a surface low across mainly wi/upper michigan, which will weaken as it encounters the overarching ridge.

ahead of the trough over our cwa, moisture/warm air transport will ensue on a decent 850mb jet, with high temperatures thursday maxing out in the upper 50s.

wednesday night lows will only drop into the 40s. given these warm temperatures, we`ll see precipitation wednesday night into thursday morning start as a light drizzle, eventually becoming a widespread rain thursday into thursday evening as the cold front enters into our cwa.

winds will be out of the south, gusting up to 25-30 mph at times on thursday, but despite this think we`ll see at least some fog continue given the warm air/melting snow pack.

also, with rain and rapidly melting snowpack, we could see some minor flooding especially near rivers and streams, and in agricultural areas.

friday morning into saturday: wintry mix & accumulating snow

by early friday morning we`ll see a transition from rain into more of a freezing rain/sleet/snow mixture as a wedge of shallow cold air seeps in at the surface with still warmer air aloft.

expect this to transition to all snow by friday afternoon as the upper level trough deepens and cold air advection moves in behind the front. light ice accumulations, less than 0.05" are possible, particularly in the central and western portions of the cwa.

an advisory may be needed, mainly for travel impacts, but prefer to hold off given the uncertainty of the temperature profiles at this point. otherwise, around 1-2" of snow is possible by friday evening, with the higher amounts towards the southeastern cwa (east of i 69).

the real (potential) show then begins friday night and will continue into saturday, as a low pressure system develops under a coupled upper level jet and negatively tilted trough.

That's a good name for punk rock band: Negatively Tilted Trough.

I don't ever want to hear a doctor say to me, "Sorry, Mr. JR, but we regret to inform you that you have a negatively tilted trough."

a surface low pressure system will develop over the gulf then ride our frontal boundary northward as it deepens. winds will switch to the north-northeast, still gusting up to near 30 mph (slightly higher possible near the lakeshore).

depending on the model of choice, the deepening low, and associated moderate-heavy snowfall, will either hit us or just sideswipe us.

if the gfs is correct, we`ll see some snow in areas east of i 69 but amounts would be on the lighter side, with the heaviest precip axis just to our east.

however if the ecmwf/nam is correct, we`ll see a cwa-wide 3-4 inches of snow, with potential for greater than 6" of snow in areas roughly southeast of a line from litchfield, mi to logansport, in friday night into saturday evening.

at this point, will issue an sps this evening highlighting the event, but hold off on any watches given lower confidence and how far out the event is.

highs friday will be in the upper 20s and low 30s, and lows friday night will be in the teens.

arctic cold returns


I like text, and I like to read. I don't mind reading multiple AFDs, but normal people don't have the patience nor the interest. But even the NWS creates simple forecasts.

http://toledoweather.info/forecast.html

Toledo 7-day forecast
Last Update: Jan 9, 2018 3:29 pm

Tonight: A chance of rain or freezing rain, mainly after 5am. Patchy fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Southeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Wednesday: A chance of freezing rain before 9am, then a chance of rain showers. Patchy fog. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 44. South wind 7 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Wednesday Night: A chance of showers, mainly after 3am. Areas of fog before 8pm. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 42. South wind 11 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Thursday: Rain likely, mainly after 2pm. Cloudy, with a high near 57. South wind 14 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Thursday Night: Rain. Low around 33. South wind 8 to 11 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Friday: Rain before 9am, then rain and sleet between 9am and 2pm, then snow and sleet after 2pm. High near 35. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Friday Night: Snow. Low around 17. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Saturday: Snow likely, mainly before noon. Cloudy, with a high near 20. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 5.

Sunday: Partly sunny, with a high near 16.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 4.

M.L.King Day: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 18. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 7.

Tuesday: A chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 17. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

posted by jr on Jan 09, 2018 at 10:06:03 pm     #   1 person liked this

Looks like the Friday/Saturday forecast has calmed down a bit? Looks like a mix on Friday during the day with a few inches total, at least if Weather Underground and the Weather Channel are correct.

posted by JoeyGee on Jan 10, 2018 at 08:56:21 am     #  

It was a complete ice slick this morning. Watched a guy bite it in our parking lot.

posted by slowsol on Jan 10, 2018 at 09:34:30 am     #   1 person liked this

I think there was a fender bender in every single intersection I went through this morning. I walked through the snow to our building because I watched two people fall on the sidewalk. Surprise ice is not a surprise I enjoy.

posted by kaj on Jan 10, 2018 at 09:41:52 am     #   1 person liked this

JoeyGee posted at 08:56:21 AM on Jan 10, 2018:

Looks like the Friday/Saturday forecast has calmed down a bit? Looks like a mix on Friday during the day with a few inches total, at least if Weather Underground and the Weather Channel are correct.

I still believe that the National Weather Service won't know for sure until Friday afternoon. Sometimes, these systems play nice, and the computer models are accurate five days in advance. Other times, well, it's a river of air, susceptible to unexpected changes. Fluid dynamics.

This morning's Hazardous Weather Outlook looks similar to what was issued last evening. The words "potential" and "possible" still exist.

hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
341 am est wed jan 10 2018

this hazardous weather outlook is for north central ohio and northwest ohio.

there is a potential for a winter storm friday night. low pressure will move north out of the gulf coast states friday.

rain early friday will mix with sleet and snow friday afternoon before changing to all snow friday night.

some freezing rain is also possible during the transition.

several inches of snowfall is possible but the amount of freezing rain, sleet and snow will depend on the exact track of the low.

continue to monitor later forecast for updates on this developing storm.

I'm guessing that by Thursday evening, the Cle NWS will have issued its first headline (advisory or watch) for Lucas County, regarding the weather for Friday through Saturday.

posted by jr on Jan 10, 2018 at 09:55:39 am     #  

The Cle NWS posted the following tweet at around 4:00 a.m. today. This very early forecast predicts 6 inches of snow over Toledo and 9 inches of snow over Cleveland.


Excerpts from a Facebook post, made this morning by WTOL meteorologist Chris Vickers.

Significant Ice potential on Friday. Heavier snow accumulations possible late Friday and into early Saturday across Northern Ohio. The axis of heavy snowfall remains highly uncertain.

Please DO NOT trust or share random weather posts of "model" snowfall graphics many days out that you no doubt see all over social media.

Here is an example why. Just last evening, the GFS (one model we analyze) showed a solid 6-12" of snow for the entire Toledo Metro and most of NW Ohio. This morning, shows only around 1"!

Neither of these are our official forecast, due to the fact that models frequently "Flip and Flop" leading up to a storm. We take each individual model run with a grain of salt and use this information and trends to develop and overall picture and forecast.

To be clear, we still expect this may be a significant storm with Ice and possible heavy snow accumulations. (6" or more very possible!)

The snow should not be the concern. It might be an issue in the open, outlying areas late Friday night and Saturday when brisk winds could cause blowing and drifting snow.

We should be able to handle a 6- to 12-inch snowfall, unless people are new to the north or we have memory loss.

Toledo received a 12- to 14-inch snowfall at the beginning of February 2015. The winter of 2013-2014 was a record-breaker for Toledo for total snowfall, breaking the old winter snowfall record, set in 1977-1978.

During our 2013-2014 winter, Toledo experienced five snowstorms with each storm dumping between 7 and 12 inches of snow.

I'm not concerned about snowfall for this weekend. The problem could be how much ice accumulation, if any, that we receive.

Hopefully, the axis of evil snow moves west, giving us a bigger snow accumulation and a smaller ice accumulation.

posted by jr on Jan 10, 2018 at 12:58:54 pm     #   2 people liked this

Thank you. I enjoy reading the weather predictions here.

posted by golddustwoman on Jan 10, 2018 at 04:32:25 pm     #   1 person liked this

This evening, the Cle NWS predicted 2 to 4 inches of snowfall for Toledo, along with very little ice accumulation. So far, we're looking good.

Toledo forecast
Last Update: Jan 10, 2018 6:47 pm

Friday: Rain or freezing rain before 10am, then snow, freezing rain, and sleet between 10am and 1pm, then a chance of snow after 1pm. High near 36. Northwest wind 13 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Friday Night: Snow likely, mainly between 9pm and midnight, then a chance of snow showers after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 14. Blustery, with a north wind 20 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

Saturday: A slight chance of snow showers before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 18. Blustery. Chance of precipitation is 20%.



At the moment, the big problems for snow and ice are forecast to occur over northeast Ohio.

Late this afternoon, the Cle NWS already issued a Winter Storm Watch for northeast Ohio. From their Twitter post :

A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for NE Ohio and NW PA from noon Friday until 10 AM Saturday where significant accumulations of ice and snow are possible. All areas can expect a mix of freezing rain and sleet on Friday before turning to snow.



Another Cle NWS tweet from this afternoon, concerning rivers and streams.

Temperatures will continue to warm on Thursday, melting the snowpack. Most area rivers are currently frozen but ice will start to break up with jams possible, especially by Friday.



Here's the Winter Storm Watch statement for northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

Winter Storm Watch
Issued: 4:02 PM EST Jan. 10, 2018 – National Weather Service

... Winter Storm Watch in effect from Friday afternoon through
Saturday morning...

  • what... heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches, with localized amounts up to 12 inches are possible. Ice accumulations of one tenth to around a quarter of an inch are possible.
  • Where... portions of northwest Pennsylvania and north central and northeast Ohio.
  • When... from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning.
  • Additional details... ice accumulations could lead to power outages and tree damage. Travel could become dangerous, including the evening commute on Friday. Blowing snow is possible Friday night as winds increase. Temperatures will drop below freezing from west to east during the day on Friday and be in the teens by early Saturday morning.



Excerpts from the most recent Area Forecast Discussion, issued by the Cle NWS. These forecast discussions apply to the entire area covered by the Cle NWS, from Erie, PA to Toledo and a bit south.

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
703 pm est wed jan 10 2018

the models seem a bit faster and a bit colder and the surface low develops farther east. the shallow cold air is impressive and it seems as though we all should transition from rain to freezing rain to sleet to snow friday into early friday night.

temperatures will drop below freezing quickly across northwest ohio friday morning and be below freezing by the oh pa border by mid to late afternoon.

the post frontal precipitation may initially be rather light as the model soundings do not show deep moisture or strong upward motion but light freezing rain/drizzle is a problem.

the upward motion and deeper moisture develops as the surface wave develops on the front friday afternoon/night. it is problematic as to whether the surface low develops/skips to the east side of the appalachians versus a track along the appalachians or on the west side. typically we get heavier snow with the latter.

the upper low is progged to shear and lift out but the track will be almost overhead on friday night so the precipitation will be enhanced, mainly east of i-71. the freezing rain/ice/sleet may last the longest around canton and youngstown friday evening.

not sure what the ice situation will be on lake erie, there will likely be some lake enhancement with the nne wind but the open water is mainly east of erie pa so the lake enhancement contribution may be less than usual.

from a forecast perspective, a key decision is whether the upcoming event will be better handled with an advisory or a watch/warning?

given the eastward trend and faster evolution of the system, the confidence is high enough for a winter storm watch east of i-71 and not necessarily just from the snow, the ice/sleet contribution may be worthy of a watch/warning.

winds will increase significantly as the surface low deepens and drifting snow will be an issue where there is enough powder friday night.

by saturday, the system should be far enough east that the large majority of leftover snow is lake effect. again, as mentioned above, not sure where the open water will be on lake erie, probably the east half. there will be a lake huron fetch as well. 850 mb temperatures will drop to -20c as the arctic air spreads across the midwest.

temperatures will not rise much on saturday and spend most of the day in the teens. winds will drop off by saturday night so that wind chills may not get to wind chill criteria.

posted by jr on Jan 10, 2018 at 08:11:14 pm     #  

As of this morning, Toledo is forecast to receive around 1 to 2 inches of total snow accumulation by sunrise Saturday.

This morning, our temps were in the low 50s. Our high temp today is forecast to approach 60. Toledo's record high temp for January 11 is 68 degrees, set in 1890.

March-like weather today, and then some changes tomorrow. We should receive little rainfall today. Most of the rain is forecast to fall tonight. Late tonight, we are forecast to have temps still in the 50s. Temps are forecast to fall rapidly after Midnight to the mid 30s by 7:00 a.m. Friday, and temps will continue to fall all day Friday.

Driving around here on Friday afternoon could still be tricky with temps in the 20s, possibly a glaze of ice, brisk winds, and snow. But it's tricky on a sunny, dry day in July.

Toledo forecast
Last Update: Jan 11, 2018 5:45 am

Today: Showers likely, mainly after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 58. South wind around 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Rain. Low around 32. South wind 8 to 14 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Friday: Rain, freezing rain, and sleet before 11am, then snow and sleet likely between 11am and noon, then snow likely after noon. Temperature falling to around 22 by 5pm. North wind 15 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Friday Night: A chance of snow before midnight, then a chance of snow showers after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 14. Wind chill values as low as -2. Blustery, with a north wind 18 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Saturday: A slight chance of snow before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 19. North wind 14 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

posted by jr on Jan 11, 2018 at 08:59:05 am     #  

valbee posted at 06:01:22 PM on Jan 09, 2018:

I miss justasooner.

He's still around...just working a lot on other things. Started up a new weather discussion site: www.wxstuff.com just recently.

posted by avinsurer on Jan 11, 2018 at 11:49:16 am     #   1 person liked this

Conditions at Toledo Express Airport at about 8:00 p.m. this evening.

Jan 11, 2018 7:52 pm
Weather : Overcast
Temperature : 55 F
Wind Speed : S 10 mph - Gust 23 mph



Forecast temps for Midnight tonight and Midnight tomorrow night from the hourly forecast.

http://toledoweather.info/hourly-forecast.html

12:00 am - Jan 12, 2018
temp: 52 F
wind: WSW 13 mph

12:00 am - Jan 13, 2018
temp: 17 F
wind: N 20 mph



From the Cle NWS:

Toledo forecast
Last Update: Jan 11, 2018 7:30 pm

Tonight: Rain. Low around 31. South wind 11 to 15 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Friday: Rain and freezing rain, possibly mixed with snow and sleet, becoming all snow after 9am. Temperature falling to around 22 by 4pm. North wind 15 to 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Friday Night: A chance of snow, mainly before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11. Wind chill values as low as -3. Blustery, with a north wind 18 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 19. Wind chill values as low as -4. North wind 13 to 17 mph.



Thu, Jan 11, 2018 detailed discussion at:

https://www.wxstuff.com/2018/01/11/jan-12th-winter-storm-1-11-discussion-1

So it now comes down to how will the forecast play out. Still a lot of questions, which is unfortunate for something with in 24 hours, but let’s take a stab at it knowing this could all blow up in the next hour with the 18z model runs.

Here is a general thinking right now and this is going to be impacted a ton by how fast the cold air works in, how much sleet/freezing rain takes place to keep snow totals down, and what happens with the southern low moving up and if it is stronger or trackers more to the west like the model solutions a couple days ago. So we’ll see how things play out.

Quickly wanted to hit on some other hazards with this setup…

Icing / Sleet / Freezing Rain / Not the good stuff on cookies…

There could be a decent icing event just behind the front before a change over to all snow takes place.

Using the 3km NAM here, this is 10AM Friday showing freezing rain from Southern Ontario through the Southeast half of the Toledo metro area down towards East Central Indiana and just east of Indy. It is quite possible to see at least a glaze of ice out of this.

NAM gets a little crazy with amounts, with almost an inch of ice around Toledo (not happening), but it at least shows there could be some freezing rain accumulation.

Moderate/Heavy snow and Sleet over much of Ohio by mid-afternoon on Friday. Also notice lake effect bands setup on Lake Michigan and also off Lake Huron.

During this time we could be looking at winds gusting over 30 mph through the area. This is something that has been highlighted on most models the last few days, so even with a little snow it is going to blow around pretty good.



8:11 p.m., Thu, Jan 11, 2018 tweet from, I assume, JustaSooner.

https://twitter.com/WxStuffUS/status/951622518640693250

Radar update at 8PM EST - Cold front around IL/IN border and over Lake MI. Looking at ~30 mile lag behind the front of the surface temps below freezing. There is an area ~40 miles wide of FZRA followed by Sleet. Snow is ~20 miles behind that.



All three NWS offices issued Winter Weather Advisories for the Toledo area. Here's ours from Cle NWS, which is in effect on Friday from 6:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m.

urgent - winter weather message
national weather service cleveland oh
335 pm est thu jan 11 2018

...ice and snow storm friday and friday night...

.rain will change to freezing rain, sleet and then snow friday into friday evening as colder air spreads across the area behind a cold front. low pressure is expected to develop along the front and enhance the precipitation across northeast ohio and northwest pa. a glaze of ice is expected to occur followed by snow. ice and snow accumulations are expected to be higher across northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania with somewhat higher snow amounts in the snowbelt of northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

...winter weather advisory in effect from 6 am to 7 pm est friday...

  • what...mixed precipitation expected. a glaze of ice around a tenth to two tenths of an inch expected friday. freezing rain and sleet will change to snow and snow accumulations will average 1 to 3 inches.
  • where...lucas, wood, ottawa, sandusky, hancock, seneca and wyandot counties.
  • when...from 6 am to 7 pm est friday.
  • additional details...temperatures will fall into the teens by friday night. north winds will increase to 15 to 20 mph with gusts as high as 30 mph. some blowing and drifting snow is likely.

precautionary/preparedness actions...

a winter weather advisory means that periods of snow, sleet or freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. be prepared for slippery roads and limited visibilities, and use caution while driving. the latest road conditions can be obtained from the department of transportation web site.

posted by jr on Jan 11, 2018 at 08:55:12 pm     #  

Between Midnight tonight and Midnight tomorrow night, 2 to 3 inches of snow accumulation are forecast to fall for Mon, Jan 15, 2018.


Sun, Jan 14, 2018 - wxstuff.com - Jan 15th Alberta Clipper Discussion

Everything appears on track, for a change, for the Alberta Clipper to come in through the region on Monday the 15th. Also sure to disappoint everyone, no tricky forecast here when it comes to precip type. It’ll be snow. So making this a pretty boring and straight forward system, will just hit on a few items.

Snowfall amounts are pretty much 1-3 inches area wide. Areas with stronger bands or lake enhancement will see more of course, but those will be hard to pin point until things come together. Below models are 3km NAM, 12km NAM, and GFS. 3km NAM is in a 10:1 ratio with the others using the Kuchera method. Kurchera ratios during the event start out around 19:1 but fall to 12:1 by Tuesday morning. So while looking at the 3km NAM image below, add roughly an inch to 2 inches to some of the totals being shown and things line up pretty well with the others.


Toledo forecast - Last Update: Jan 14, 2018 5:40 am

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 20. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 8 mph in the morning.

Tonight: A chance of snow showers, mainly after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 14. Southeast wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

M.L.King Day: Snow showers, mainly before 3pm. High near 25. Southeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Monday Night: A chance of snow showers before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 9. Wind chill values as low as -4. West wind 8 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Tuesday: Partly sunny, with a high near 15. Southwest wind 9 to 11 mph.


Area Forecast Discussion

national weather service cleveland oh
619 am est sun jan 14 2018

.synopsis...

high pressure will build southeast across the area today and move northeast to maine by this evening extending a ridge southwest into the local area. an alberta clipper storm system will move southeast and be over the area monday evening. the storm system will bring another round of light snow to the local area monday into monday night. the low will move northeast of the area tuesday as high pressure builds southeast into the tennessee valley by wednesday night. the high will then slowly build southeast to the carolinas by friday and will bring a return flow of warmer air back to the local region.

near term /through monday/...

some slight warm air advection will take place tonight in advance of an alberta clipper storm system. moisture will spread from west to east across the area beginning tonight in the west and spread east during the morning hours monday. snowfall amounts should be around 2 to 3 inches across the entire forecast area.

posted by jr on Jan 14, 2018 at 08:52:47 am     #