Counting down to May 4, 2010
Election day
Will we have a vote for real change or the expected status quo vote of failure by supporting more taxes?
The slow, painful destruction of Toledo, Ohio may continue this spring. It's called Detroitification.
Will Toledoans vote to raise taxes and continue to fund incompetence and malfeasance? They've done it often enough in the past.
Feb 3, 2010
Possibly being implemented this spring:
- $1.00 entertainment tax if approved by Toledo city council to help reduce the city's $44 million deficit.
- May 4 vote by Toledoans to increase the income tax from 2.25 to 2.50 percent if city council approves the idea later this month. Tax increase will help reduce the city's $44 million deficit.
- May 4 vote by Toledoans to pass a new property tax levy for the Toledo Public School system to help TPS reduce its $30 million deficit.
Mayor Mike Bell who has been in office for only about a month said the income tax increase would be temporary. Bell said the increase would expire at the end of 2012. Yeah, right.
Well, it sure didn't take Bell long to earn the title of Jackass. He must really think Toledoans are idiots to buy that line of bull. Local government rescind a tax increase??? No way would the city ever part with the increased tax revenue.
If the tax increase passes on May 4, and when the end of 2012 is near, we'll get sob stories from local pinhead officials about how the city cannot afford to repeal the tax increase. Before the May 4 election, we'll get a lot of fear mongering and outright lies from local officials about the dire consequences facing Toledo if the tax increase is not passed.
http://abclocal.go.com/wtvg/story?section=news/local&id=7256277
http://abclocal.go.com/wtvg/story?section=news/local&id=7256302
http://toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20100131/NEWS16/1310325
http://toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20100203/NEWS16/2030368
http://toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20100202/NEWS16/100209950
Feb 4, 2010
Feb 4, 2010 - WTVG - Toledo Public School system engaged in fear-mongering already. The dimwits in charge should make cuts FIRST before going to the taxpayers.
TPS board members discuss tax levy for May ballot
The school levy would be an additional tax hike on top of what the city is proposing. TPS board president Bob Vasquez says, "I don't want to think about it as a competition because the city has their issues that are important and we have our issues that are just as important. My responsibility as a board member for TPS is try to make sure that we have enough resources to operate the schools."
There are others who think TPS will have a hard time getting approval from voters. Superintendent John Foley says when it comes to a balanced budget, everything is on the table including layoffs. Foley says, "The biggest fear is significant cuts in our district. That's going to look very different than it does today in terms of what we can provide for students."
School board members must decide fast on which tax option best fits Toledo. The district's budget must be balanced by July. School board members are expected to vote on the tax option next week.
School leaders blame the deficit on cuts in state funding and losses in local property tax revenue. The school board expects some backlash from voters.Wrong! The deficit is due to rampant arrogance and incompetence within TPS. Why trust a school system that has used tax dollars to conduct surveillance on private citizens?
TPS lacks transparency.
Taxes Hurt Small Businesses
Higher taxes have obviously not helped Toledo in the past, so why would anyone think more taxes will help Toledo now? Vote to defeat the May 4 tax increases and force city government and TPS to make real cuts.
Higher taxes will cause more residents and maybe small businesses to flee Toledo. The fleeing citizens take their spending power with them, which hurts the small, local independent businesses those residents may have supported. And even if residents don't move, they may have to change their spending ways and spend more at the cheaper chain stores to offset tax increases.
Feb 4, 2010 - Thurber's Thoughts - 'Not business friendly' Post #18 - raising Toledo's payroll income tax
ETC.
December 2008 - Toledo Blade - Toledo Public Schools enrollment is down 1,649 students from last school year
And since the 1998-99 school year, 12,269 students have left the district, which reflects an average loss of more than 1,100 students annually. The drop in student population over the past 11 school years is about equal to the total number of students currently enrolled in Toledo public elementary schools alone.
But such a decline has larger implications than just fewer students in the city's public school classrooms.
The latest annual decrease could translate into the district missing out on as much as $9.4 million in state and local revenue this school year, given that school district budgets are mostly built based on student enrollment.
Enrollment projections commissioned by district officials point to a continual slide in the number of future TPS students. However, the 26,600-student number from this year's statewide enrollment count - taken in October - is down more than 270 students from district projections for the year.
It's a drop that local school officials are attributing to a combination of factors: the declining population of Toledo, the expansion of the Ohio Educational Choice scholarship program, and more families selecting charter schools over public schools.
According to U.S. Census Bureau estimates, the city of Toledo has lost nearly 16,000 residents since 1998. Some of those Toledoans have gone to surrounding suburbs, others have moved out of the region or state, a trend that has been occurring for more than three decades.
That trend has also affected the number of students enrolled in the Diocese of Toledo's metro area Catholic schools. Since the 1998-99 school year, they have lost 3,600 students - from 11,420 to 7,814 for this school year. The local diocese operates 21 of the 26 local private schools that are participating in the educational choice, or voucher program, which allow students whose neighborhood school is on the state's academic watch or emergency list to receive a state-sponsored scholarship to attend a private school.
Mr. Foley estimated that about 600 of the students who were lost from Toledo's public schools last year took advantage of those scholarships.
Charter schools are also contributing to the decline in public school enrollment.
According to the National Alliance for Public Charter Schools, 6,428 students - or 19 percent of Toledo's public school children - attended charter schools last year instead of public schools.
The drop in public school enrollment has significant implications for the school district's annual budget, which is based on the average number of students enrolled throughout the year. That is determined mostly by the October head count.
"Our budget is based on enrollment," said Steve Steel, president of the Toledo Board of Education. "If we lose a few students here and there it doesn't reduce our cost, but it decreases our revenue."
TPS receives about $5,732 for each student from state and local funds, according to Dan Romano, the district's treasurer.
That means finding ways to make cuts to the budget, which would likely come in the way of layoffs.
For instance, in this school year's budget, the district planned for 30 fewer teachers than it had last year, as a reaction to previous enrollment declines.
It was the first time in about five years of experiencing constant declines that the district had to make such a move.
January 2010 - Toledo Blade - Toledo Public Schools probes focused on critics, board
Daniel Burns, a 30-year employee of TPS who was indicted last month in the theft of more than $181,000 from Cleveland schools, reportedly spent $1,571 while in Toledo to have Corporate Intelligence Consultants of Perrysburg investigate and conduct criminal background checks on the five individuals in November, 2005, and March, 2006, the state auditor's office said.
The three board members investigated were Robert Torres, Darlene Fisher, and Steven Steel, said Steve Faulkner, spokesman for Ohio Auditor of State Mary Taylor.
TPS critics Steve Flagg, a member of both the watchdog group Parents for Public Schools and the Urban Coalition, and Francis Dumbuya, who operates a day care in the Old West End, also were investigated using taxpayer funds, Mr. Faulkner said.
Mr. Flagg and Mr. Dumbuya had both been highly critical of former TPS Superintendent Eugene Sanders, who was hired in mid-2006 to run the Cleveland school system and who hired Mr. Burns to work for him there.
In November, 2005, Mr. Torres, Ms. Fisher, and Mr. Steel, who is now a Toledo city councilman, were elected to the Toledo Board of Education - joining then-incumbents Larry Sykes and Deborah Barnett.
Two "case sheets" released yesterday by the auditor's office in response to a public records request from The Blade detailed the orders for background investigations.
The first, dated Nov. 14, 2005, asked for civil and criminal background checks on the three board members. It states: "Conduct thorough background on 3 recently elected TPS board members civil & criminal - felony & misdemeanor to 18 yrs old."
The record lists Clinton Faulkner, the former TPS executive assistant for human resources, as the contact person at the school district. Like Mr. Burns, Mr. Faulkner was later hired by Cleveland Schools.
The second was dated March 15, 2006. It states: "These two individuals have been (publicly) extremely critical of TPS. Dan is under the impression that they may have some problems of their own & would like to know more about them."
Under the description of Mr. Flagg, the case sheet stated: "Used to work for OI or Owens Corning? Rumor is he was a trouble-maker. Do we have contacts at these companies? Why did he leave?"
Mr. Burns' activities went unnoticed in Toledo for so long because the district lacked checks and balances and Mr. Burns was able to order equipment, pay for it, and claim he received it without anyone else getting involved, Ms. Taylor also said.
The $660,000 Mr. Burns allegedly stole from TPS is three times as much as he is accused of taking from the Cleveland Metropolitan School District during his employment there.
An employee in Cleveland noticed something unusual with Mr. Burns' activities, prompting an investigation into his time there and at Toledo Public Schools, the auditor's spokesman said.
Mr. Burns' alleged theft in Toledo included fake purchases of 20 pieces of equipment for $584,695 through the Toledo company Superior Offset Supplies.
Mr. Burns is also accused of approving $44,466 for consulting payments to Superior Offset Supplies, headed by Toledo businessman John Briggle, 56, and there was no documentation that the consultations occurred.
Mr. Burns also was accused of paying Superior Offset Supplies $29,267 twice for the same equipment repair.TPS Enrollment
Toledo Blade Report (PDF) - Declining enrollment in the Toledo Public Schools district
| - | 08-09 | 07-08 | 06-07 | 05-06 | 04-05 | 03-04 | 02-03 | 01-02 | 00-01 | 99-00 | 98-99 |
| Enrollment | 26,600 | 28,249 | 29,059 | 30,296 | 32,985 | 34,349 | 35,604 | 36,699 | 37,315 | 37,707 | 38,869 |
| High School | 7,783 | 8,148 | 8,228 | 8,741 | 9,328 | 9,323 | 9,573 | 9,614 | 9,429 | 9,215 | 9,412 |
| Junior High | 4,359 | 4,693 | 4,275 | 4,344 | 4,843 | 5,276 | 5,509 | 5,562 | 5,408 | 5,258 | 5,350 |
| Elementary | 13,861 | 14,867 | 14,826 | 15,462 | 15,459 | 16,161 | 16,836 | 17,544 | 18,402 | 18,667 | 19,823 |
Toledo Population
Census Figures
1920 : 243,164
1930 : 290,718
1940 : 282,349
1950 : 303,616
1960 : 318,003
1970 : 383,818
1980 : 354,635 -7.6%
1990 : 332,943 -6.1%
2000 : 313,619 -5.8%
Estimates
July 2002 : 309,106
July 2004 : 304,734
July 2005 : 301,285 - 301,728
July 2006 : 297,806 - 298,446
July 2007 : 295,029
Feb 5, 2010
Glass City Jungle - Fiscal Emergency could be headed Toledo’s way
Feb 9, 2010
Toledo Blade - Toledo school board approves income tax request
Toledo Blade - Toledo officials given raises up to 26.9%
Impact on small businesses
"I can never (as an individual) control or decrease my city tax burden as long as the majority continues to vote for city tax increases."
In my opinion, if one or both of the income tax increase proposals pass on May 4, it will hurt small businesses in Toledo.
Toledoans can change buying habits to find savings that will help offset increases in income and property taxes. Spend less money on entertainment like sport and art events. Buy a cookbook and dine out less and cook fancier at home. Engage in more Do-It-Yourself instead of farming the chore out to a local business. Do more comparison shopping. Shop more at big box chain stores, instead of the small, local, independent businesses if money can be saved. Shop more over the Web for the same reason.
If you can save 5 to 10 percent or more a month by eschewing small, local businesses and little luxuries like a $4 fancy coffee, well, that may be an unfortunate but necessary change in shopping habits. At some point, households "selfishly" have to think about themselves. I get the feeling that TPS and Toledo city government believe that all citizens are receiving 20 percent raises, and these significant tax increase proposals will not bother us.
The TPS .75 percent earned income tax increase proposal is devastating.
- A person with $30,000 income would pay $225 annually with the new 0.75 percent income tax.
- A $60,000 income would pay $450 more annually.
- A $100,000 income would pay $750 more annually.
If that tax passes, it has to impact households negatively, unless everyone is putting everything on credit card debt. These tax increases will cause some people to make changes to their budgets.
A household can save money by moving out of Toledo, which can hurt Toledo businesses. The quick fix, however, is for households to change buying habits. Voter-approved tax increases may cause Walmart to gain more fans, which is an ironic situation for Toledo.
Links and thoughts
http://www.toledotalk.com/cgi-bin/tt.pl/article/31450#31592
http://toledotalk.com/cgi-bin/tt.pl/article/51760#51775
Feb 14, 2010 - Glass City Jungle - Toledo as 8th most impoverished
Feb 14, 2010 - Toledo Blade - Hard times tighten vise on the poor; U.S. ranks Toledo as nation's 8th-most impoverished :
Feb 17
"... wouldn't just give those Toledoans incentive to move out to the suburbs where they already work/pay taxes?"
With Bell's plan to reduce the tax reciprocity by 100 percent plus passage of TPS's .75 percent earned income tax proposal:
- a Toledoan making $36,000 a year and working in a city with a 1.5 percent tax rate would pay an additional $810 a year.
- a Toledoan making $36,000 a year and working in a city witha 2.25 percent tax rate would pay an additional $1080 a year.
"Do you really think people will put their homes up for sale, go through the hassle of selling in a down market, pull their kids out of school and move to the 'burbs just to save $400 a year?"
Ah, yes. People have been doing it for years in Toledo. Are you aware of the population numbers for Toledo?
And genius, for some of us, we no longer have kids in school, and we have a six-figure household income, and we live in Toledo and work outside the city, so it will cost us a lot more than $400 year, pal. And isn't easier for renters to move away?
From last year's Blade story about Carty's 50 percent tax reciprocity reduction plan:
So I assume under Bell's 100 percent tax reciprocity reduction plan, the above household would pay $3,000 more a year.
So the answer could be a definite "Yes" to the question about some people leaving Toledo, especially for those Toledo fence-setters who have been thinking about moving out of the city for a while. And why would knowledgeable people who live outside the city want to buy a home in Toledo if they work outside Toledo? How does Bell's plan help reverse Toledo's population decline?
For those who rent month-to-month, it will be a little easier to move out of the city. Homeowners will need more time to sell their home with Toledo's housing market, but that may depend upon where the homeowner lives. Some areas of Toledo have a better housing market than other areas of the city. And can always rent the house, pay some taxes to the city and county, but bring in some money too. Homes for rent get occupied quickly in our area of town.
Last spring, the Toledo Blade editorial board wrote an op-ed saying those who threatened to move out of Toledo because of Carty's plan to reduce the tax reciprocity by 50 percent would not be able to leave because of Toledo's bad housing market. The Blade took joy in Toledo's decay, and the fact that homeowners are trapped in Toledo, so it's OK to strap those who work outside the city with more taxes. I'll track down that op-ed.
In 2009, Toledo city council defeated Carty's plan to reduce the tax reciprocity by 50 percent. And now, Bell wants to reduce it by 100 percent. This could be a negotiating ploy. City council may compromise and agree to a 50 percent reduction. Carty's plan.
Updating the numbers from last year's Blade story:
So under Bell's plan, I assume it would be $540 and $810 in additional taxes respectively. And if TPS's .75 percent earned income tax passes on May 4, this $36k earner who works outside the city would pay an additional $270.
Toledo's population numbers
Census Figures
1920 : 243,164
1930 : 290,718
1940 : 282,349
1950 : 303,616
1960 : 318,003
1970 : 383,818
1980 : 354,635 -7.6%
1990 : 332,943 -6.1%
2000 : 313,619 -5.8%
Estimates
July 2002 : 309,106
July 2004 : 304,734
July 2005 : 301,285 - 301,728
July 2006 : 297,806 - 298,446
July 2007 : 295,029
Toledo Blade Report (PDF) - Declining enrollment in the Toledo Public Schools district
| - | 08-09 | 07-08 | 06-07 | 05-06 | 04-05 | 03-04 | 02-03 | 01-02 | 00-01 | 99-00 | 98-99 |
| Enrollment | 26,600 | 28,249 | 29,059 | 30,296 | 32,985 | 34,349 | 35,604 | 36,699 | 37,315 | 37,707 | 38,869 |
| High School | 7,783 | 8,148 | 8,228 | 8,741 | 9,328 | 9,323 | 9,573 | 9,614 | 9,429 | 9,215 | 9,412 |
| Junior High | 4,359 | 4,693 | 4,275 | 4,344 | 4,843 | 5,276 | 5,509 | 5,562 | 5,408 | 5,258 | 5,350 |
| Elementary | 13,861 | 14,867 | 14,826 | 15,462 | 15,459 | 16,161 | 16,836 | 17,544 | 18,402 | 18,667 | 19,823 |
TPS's declining enrollment is not all due to parents moving their kids to private schools and charter schools. It's also due to Toledo's declining population.
comment links
http://toledotalk.com/cgi-bin/tt.pl/article/51628#51698
http://toledotalk.com/cgi-bin/tt.pl/article/51615#51625
http://toledotalk.com/cgi-bin/tt.pl/article/52090#52131
rankings
"Where did this information come from? I looked on a few different resources and Toledo was not in the top 10. What creditable source is saying we are #8 in the nation?"
The source is the U.S. Census Bureau as mentioned in this Oct 1, 2009 Toledo Blade story titled Census Bureau report lists Toledo in Top 10 of downtrodden in 2008
Search for something called the Census Bureau's American Community Survey.
What's odd about this from the Blade standpoint is the Blade ran this story last October, and they basically ran it again this month.
Feb 14, 2010 - Toledo Blade - Hard times tighten vise on the poor; U.S. ranks Toledo as nation's 8th-most impoverished
Both Blade stories mention that it's 2008 census data, showing Toledo's poverty rate at 24.7%.
Here's the Blade graphic from their October 2009 story:
Toledo's 2007 poverty rate was 22.6 percent.
Toledo's 2004 poverty rate was 16.5 percent, tied with Portland for 40th on the list.
Hare are some other delightful stats
The top 10 large cities with the lowest median household income in 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau, 2007 American Community Service):
- Detroit $28,097
- Cleveland $28,512
- Miami $29,075
- Buffalo $29,706
- Pittsburgh $32,363
- Cincinnati $33,006
- St. Louis $34,191
- Newark, N.J. $34,452
- Memphis $35,143
- Toledo $35,216
10 Coldest Job Markets (2007)
- Detroit
- New Orleans
- Youngstown
- Dayton
- Cleveland
- Lansing
- Toledo
- Springfield, MA
- New Haven, CT
- Grand Rapids, MI
2008 Forbes story - America's Fastest-Dying Cities - Toledo was not listed, but, of course, Ohio and Michigan dominated the list.
Wait, there's more ...
Milken Institute's rankings for metro Toledo on job growth
- 2008 - Toledo ranked 194th out of 200, among large cities for job growth.
- 2007 - Toledo ranked 196th
- 2006 - Toledo ranked 196th
- 2005 - Toledo ranked 196th
- 2004 - Toledo ranked 195th
- 2003 - Toledo ranked 195th
Here's a study or report that began in the late 1990s.
Aug 26, 2005 Toledo Blade story titled Top-paying jobs flee Lucas Co., Census reports. 5-year loss: 1,140 positions :
The five-year period is from 1998 through 2002.
Stats in the Blade article for each county and the percent change in employment in these types of jobs:
- Summit (Akron) 45%
- Montgomery (Dayton) 16%
- Franklin (Columbus) 15%
- Hamilton (Cincinnati) 14%
- Cuyahoga (Cleveland) 2%
- Lucas (Toledo) -11%
Also from that August 2005 Blade article about the above list:
Lucas lost almost as much as the other 18 northwest Ohio and southeast Michigan counties in the region gained during the five-year period.
... engineering, advertising, and other high-paying professional positions ....At least those jobs remained in the region. But how many more of these "high-paying professional positions" have moved outside Toledo since 2002?
more population info
Local population trends - Aug 2006 thread and Mar 2007 thread - Both pointed to Toledo Blade stories, which stated:
The region's biggest population gains continue to be in Monroe County, which has had a 5.5 percent increase in residents since 2000.
Wood County gained 2.4% since 2000.
The Census data seem to indicate that the surrounding counties, including Toledo's suburban communities, are absorbing the people who left Lucas County. Bedford Township is one of Toledo's largest suburbs and among the fastest-growing areas of Monroe County.
The Census Bureau also reported increases of 3.3 percent and 1.5 percent in Lenawee and Hillsdale counties, respectively. To the south, Wood County grew by 3,122 people, or 2.6 percent, and Hancock County gained 2,529 people, or 3.5 percent. Fulton County added 816 residents, a 1.9 percent increase.
City-Data.com info for Lucas County communities:
Toledo
* Population (year 2000): 313,619.
* Estimated population in July 2005: 301,285 (-3.9% change since 2000)
* Estimated population in July 2008: 293,201 (-6.5% change since 2000)
Maumee
* Population (year 2000): 15,237.
* Estimated population in July 2005: 14,285 (-6.2% change since 2000)
* Estimated population in July 2008: 13,856 (-9.1% change since 2000)
Sylvania
* Population (year 2000): 18,670.
* Estimated population in July 2005: 19,069 (+2.1% change since 2000)
* Estimated population in July 2008: 19,185. (+2.8% change since 2000)
Oregon
* Population (year 2000): 19,355.
* Estimated population in July 2005: 19,175 (-0.9% change since 2000)
* Estimated population in July 2008: 18,921 (-2.2% change since 2000)
Ottawa Hills
* Population (year 2000): 4,564.
* Estimated population in July 2005: 4,608 (+1.0% change since 2000)
* Estimated population in July 2008: 4,594 (+0.7% change since 2000)
Waterville
* Population (year 2000): 4,828.
* Estimated population in July 2005: 5,189 (+7.5% change since 2000)
* Estimated population in July 2008: 5,230 (+8.3% change since 2000)
Whitehouse
* Population (year 2000): 2,733.
* Estimated population in July 2005: 3,303 (+20.9% change since 2000)
* Estimated population in July 2008: 3,830 (+40.1% change since 2000)
Holland
* Population (year 2000): 1,306.
* Estimated population in July 2005: 1,326 (+1.5% change since 2000)
* Estimated population in July 2008: 1,327. (+1.6% change since 2000)
Elsewhere:
Perrysburg: Population in July 2008: 17,049. Population change since 2000: +0.6%
Rossford: Population in July 2008: 6,404. Population change since 2000: -0.0%
Northwood: Population in July 2008: 5,520. Population change since 2000: +0.9%
Feb 18, 2010
Feb 18, 2010 - America's Most Miserable Cities 2010
America's Top 5 Most Miserable Cities - Forbes story
1. Cleveland, Ohio
2. Stockton, Calif.
3. Memphis, Tenn.
4. Detroit, Mich.
5. Flint, Mich.
6. Miami, Fla
7. St. Louis, MO
8. Buffalo, NY
9. Canton, OH
10. Chicago, IL
11. Modesto, CA
12. Akron, OH
13. Kansas City, MO
14. Rockford, IL
15. Toledo, OH - "Cost of living is cheap in Toledo (15% below the national average), but that has not kept residents from leaving as there has been a net migration out of the metro area every year over the past two decades."
16. New York, NY
17. Sacramento, CA
18. Youngstown, OH
19. Gary, IN
20. Philadelphia, PA
Fear Mongering
Mar 17, 2010 - Toledo Blade - Police chief paints grim picture as 125 officers get pink slips