How Low Can We Go (Toledo's Population Anyways)

If our population drops to around 60,000 we might have a police for the size of Springfield, Ohio's with 131 sworn positions.

If the people who work outside the city leave for towns where they work, then we could have a population like Akron's . Check for Akron's police force structure under Ohio's data. These numbers must be old since it states that Toledo had 1000 police, and Akron had 900.

To say that Toledo might not lose a significant part of its population fails to pay attention to places like Youngstown which lost more than half its population since 1930, and Canton which lost 33% of its population since 1950.

Last one out, please turn off the lights.

Akron had 496 (453 officers) in 2006 , or 2.18 per 1,000. Toledo had 815 (690 officers) or 2.35 per thousand.

We would probably be closer to Kettering's size on the low end. Their 2010 budget shows a police force of 116.5 (including 74 patrol officers and sergeants). But poorer people probably means more crime and less revenue to pay for more police

We also lose taxes from people who would have been employed to service those 19,200 who leave Toledo for a lesser tax environment. They will probably no longer patronize our grocery stores, Wal-Marts, and other stores. Yes, they will come in occasionally to buy an appliance if they can get a better deal in Toledo, but Toledo may be mainly for entertainment (unless the entertainment tax turns them off). And these people probably will have bigger paychecks to spend than most of the citizens of Toledo.

This is just my $0.02, but everyone (admit not many) I know live outside of Toledo, and work inside it.

For example live in Perrysburg, Sylvania, Oregon, and Temperance. We're all stuck paying the Toledo tax even though we don't live there, and some of us (Perrysburg) are stuck being double taxed since we also have to pay a % to the city we live.

Not complaining personally, because I love the parks, museums, and libraries, so feel like my tax money is at least going to something I love. But have heard several people upset about it.

Well, INeedCoffee, these amenities may be of historical significance a couple of decades hence. If Toledo becomes an impoverished,broken city the revenue will not be there to maintain those amenities unless those with wealth begin to follow the feudal rule of "noblesse oblige" and fund these treasures.

With more poverty I would imagine Toledo would slide further into the abyss. Toledo’s burglary rate with an occasional murder “by mistake” would increase from these figures for 2007. Toledo was No. 3 in the nation for burglaries in that year.

The 2010 proposed budget minus the 125 layoffs (probably all patrolmen) leaves us with 340 patrolmen and 88 sargeants (428 total). 428/293 (thousands)= 1.46 police/thousand citizens. That will be almost half what we had to control situations in 2006.

Now, what Toledo needs is the American Nazis coming to stir things up.

I guess it would help if I gave a page to the .pdf where the police manpower could be found. Page 386 (p.371 of the document).

Thank God for the arts since these pieces and installation, dances and plays might continue to bring money to the city. Perhaps our young men and women might want to consider training themselves in the arts for local consumption.

According to this Wood County has 521 homes for sale, and Lucas County has 13,412 vacant homes. That is not enough for the 19,200 families who might leave Toledo. They may have to find a few families willing to move for a premium or look to other counties for vacant homes to move into.

Monroe County, 271 properties , Lenawee County, 712 listings , Ottawa County, OH, 183 listings , Henry County, 269 listings , Fulton County, OH, 17 listings . That comes to 1452 additional properties in the counties adjoining Lucas County (excluding Wood County). A total of 16,385 homes in Lucas County plus the counties surrounding it for the 19,200 disgruntled income tax payers to seek out for their new homes. It looks like it might be a seller's market during the next year.

Try again for Lenawee County, http://www.homesandland.com/Real_Estate/MI/County/26091-Lenawee/Page.html.

Excuse. Out of the 13,412 vacant homes in Lucas County, 10,946 are in Toledo. So that is about 19,200 buyers chasing about 5,500 vacant homes and homes for sale in Lucas and the surrounding counties. A real sellers' market.

Even Detroit hasn't "turned out the lights" yet, despite losing 62% of its peak population.

Toledo could lose half of its peak (which was 383K in 1970, assuming badly that 1970 was a peak year). According to the Toledo OH wiki and by using a little math, that means a regression to our 1913 population.

So what sort of municipal overhead did Toledo have in 1913? That is what we should be planning on, instead of all this other bullshit with "economic development" and other scams that are designed to keep the politicians rolling in 21st Century fantasy instead of 20th Century reality.

Also: OSEB, there's no such thing as "training yourself in the arts for local consumption". Art is not industry. You can't eat art. Art does not sustain life. Stuff like that is parasitical upon the real basis of wealth, that being industrial processes.

OSEB - you're assuming that all the people who might consider moving are potential home buyers, but what about potential renters?

(Not that I think everyone would move, but if you're going to run the numbers might as well consider rentals as well.)

GZ, if Toledo is reduced to the number of people we had in 1920 (243,164, I could not find the 1913 population) we would still be very different from that time. We have our infrastructure (as long as we are willing to pay taxes to maintain it). We may need less police and firefighters (especially if we consolidate neighborhoods into easier-to-police "urban villages"). We would have more than enough school buildings (though maybe not where the students are). I don't know if Toledo grew out of an "urban plan". It seems to have been "organic" in its growth. The costs of "fixing up" the older neighborhoods might be borne by the owners but many houses are rentals that are there for "profit", and only maintained enough to attract renters. The new industries that might come to town will not pay as well as what we've had. Our city's administration seems to base their budgets on the "fact" that things will get better "next year". The fact we are a county seat brings in fees and court costs, but that might change. I agree that art will not take the place of industry, but our county was still growing in 1913 from a higher birth rate and immigration. That provided a market for goods and services.

I do not know any way to make Toledo less attractive to the poor. If their poverty comes from low wages then that is their life. If their poverty comes from assistance from the tax payer then it drives those paying that assistance out of the city.

Mom 2, I am still trying to find out what rentals are available outside Toledo, but in Lucas County. And also the counties surrounding Lucas County. That kind of data does not seem as easy to find. I would imagine that a lot of the "vacant" homes might be offered for rent temporarily while the owner looks for a buyer.

I looked at Monroe County, MI and found two listings for apartment complexes and two for houses under $800 a month. There were two more for $1200 a month. For a price like that I would consider paying the increased income tax but each will make their decision.

We may have a casino coming. Unless Toledo's citizens spend their incomes in that it will be a plus to our economy, I suppose. Most employees will earn $15-$17 an hours, http://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes393011.htm, at the high end. Some of their income might not be reportable ("tips" in the form of tokens). How many will come from Rossford (which is near there) and how many from Toledo is open to question but we will get income tax from them.

Sorry, http://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes393011.htm

In the summer of 2007 after the Census released an estimate on Toledo's population, my good friend and mentor Carty F. put Toledo's 40-year population decline into proper perspective:

The more people Toledo can shed, the better off we'll be as a city.

JR, will the transition be "organic" or "managed"? Maybe that does not matter except to those who are professional city planners. If we continue to lose population, but try to maintain roads running through blocks with only 2-3 families instead of 15-20 I can see that our revenues will not keep up with our "needs". So it not just a matter of shedding population, but consolidating living space to meet our needs.

IMHO, projects like the Marina District might be worth tax breaks, but not direct government assistance. Maybe this "break" in our economy is a good thing. We now must look at what we (as a community) can afford. The region supports the Mudhens, the Walleye, but what benefit do they get out of the Marina District (other than providing contractors for the building of it). This project seems to steal money from where investment should be made (manufacturing).

One difference between now and almost 100 years ago is that more people where crammed into fewer square miles. The cost of maintaining infrastructure was less. We complain about the potholes in our streets, and yet that is probably going to be the future of our streets. Maintaining streets is very expensive, and is easy to forget when the citizens are demanding more police.

Could this happen? The majority of voters decide to consolidate the city. People move inward (or outward) and the depopulated zones are no longer patrolled by police or firemen? These can be "annexed" by any entity willing to take on the responsibility, or become their own townships. Instead of annexation we might have "de-annexation" to shed the city of financial responsibility.

These figure might be from 1999 but they display a trend. The money to maintain Toledo's infrastructure might not be there. What is interesting is that Ohio's per capita stood at $34,847 which makes even the richest towns in our region below the state per capita.

oldsendbrdy: those numbers seem very low, especially for Perrysburg/Maumee/Sylvania. At $29k that's about $14/hr which I seriously doubt is the median income for that area. Especially with houses easily being 250k+

Per capita income is not the same thing as median or household income.

Per capita = the total personal income / the total population

Children, retirees, & other non-working people are included in the total population for per capita calculations. Whereas average or median incomes only count the people who actually earn income.

Per capita seems the best comparison. When using household income or family income the size of an average family can vary from 2.85 in Walbridge (Toledo is 3.04) to 3.18 in Perrysburg.

Mom2, aren't people with pensions counted as those who earn an income? I might be wrong. I know we do not pay city income tax but we do pay state and federal taxes, and most taxes are considered based on income.

Interesting thanks for the correction mom2 :) wish I was in that 60k+ range lol.

One thing to take into account is the definition of household vs. family incomes. This could be why family incomes are usually larger than household incomes (but not that much larger).

OSEB said: “ I agree that art will not take the place of industry, but our county was still growing in 1913 from a higher birth rate and immigration. That provided a market for goods and services. ”

No, that's not all the point. The point is that art doesn't sustain life, hence you cannot in any way plan an economy around it. Ever. Anywhere. Art is parasitical. There must be real production in the economy for art to generate revenues from.

In 1913, the Toledo area was a vibrant industrial region. Just from re-reading Unholy Toledo, I was reminded that Ohio was named the "mother of Presidents" for the period of 1860 to 1910 ... providing half of the Presidents of the period. Toledo was a natural hub for all manner of things like coal and grain and iron, with which the Western U.S. was conquered and then established. Ohio and Toledo actually mattered, back then.

Well, that was a century ago and more, so obviously those times are long gone and cannot return. Even worse, we saved NOTHING from those times in order to "live off the interest". We're broke, we have a huge government that attacks us yearly, and industry only flees the area, taking prosperity with it. Art should never be mentioned; we're going to lose entire blocks of Toledo like Detroit did for itself, and no artwork will make a damned bit of difference except in the negative -- as a distraction while the bankers, politicians and capitalists make off with more and more of what should be the common wealth.

I am going to disagree one thousand percent with your notion that "Art is parasitical"

and what a sad world you must live in... where are "should never be mentioned"

are = art?

Well, I agree.

"1 Using Arts and Culture to Stimulate State Economic Development the
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2 Using Arts and Culture to Stimulate State Economic Development THE NATIONAL GOVERNORS ASSOCIATION (NGA), founded in 1908, is the instrument through which thenation’s governors collectively influence the development and implementation of national policy and applycreative leadership to state issues. Its members are the governors of the 50 states, three territories, andtwo commonwealths.The NGA Center for Best Practices is the nation’s only dedicated consulting firm for governors and theirkey policy staff. The Center’s mission is to develop and implement innovative solutions to public policychallenges. Through the staff of the Center, governors and their policy advisors can:• Quickly learn about what works, what doesn’t, and what lessons can be learned from othergovernors grappling with the same problems;• Obtain assistance in designing and implementing new programs or in making current programsmore effective;• Receive up-to-date, comprehensive informationabout what is happening in other state capitalsand in Washington, D.C., so governors are aware of cutting-edge policies; and• Learn about emerging national trends and their implications for states, so governors can prepareto meet future demands. For more information about NGA and the Center for Best Practices, please visit www.nga.org.John Thomasian, DirectorNGA Center for Best Practices444 N. Capitol Street, Suite 267Washington, DC 20001202.624.5300www.nga.org/center
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3 Using Arts and Culture to Stimulate State Economic DevelopmentCONTENTS Executive Summary ...................................................................................................... 4Chapter 1: The Creative Industries as Economic Assets .......................................................... 5Chapter 2: Understand Your State’s Cultural Industries ......................................................... 7Perform an Ongoing Inventory of State Arts Assets ............................................................... 7Conduct Specialized Cluster Analyses ............................................................................... 8Ensure Accurate Measurement ....................................................................................... 9Chapter 3: Incorporate the Arts & Culture into Statewide Planning..........................................10Seek Input from Stakeholders .......................................................................................10Identify a Vision .......................................................................................................11Kick Off Efforts with a Visible Event ...............................................................................12Chapter 4: Develop Strategies to Provide Support for the Arts & Culture Sector .........................14Target Specific Sectors ..................................................................................................14Strengthen the Nonprofit Arts and Cultural Infrastructure .....................................................15Nonprofit Capacity-Building Initiatives .........................................................................15Nonprofit Technical Assistance Services .........................................................................16Support Individual Businesses .......................................................................................16Public-Private Partnerships .......................................................................................17Creative Businesses Aid Disaster Recovery Efforts ............................................................18Support Individual Entrepreneurs ..................................................................................18Support Collaborative Networks and Educational Services .....................................................18Utilizing Public Higher Education ................................................................................20Preparing the Next Generation (K-12) ...........................................................................21Leverage the Arts for a Competitive Edge in Business ..........................................................21Chapter 5: Incorporate the Arts into Community Development Plans .......................................23Provide Planning Grants and Training to Communities ..........................................................23Encouraging Public and Private Investment in the Arts ......................................................24Create Cultural Enterprise Zones or Communities ...............................................................24Support the Development of Art Space ............................................................................25Reclaiming Industrial Space for the Arts ........................................................................27Chapter 6: Incorporate the Arts into a State Tourism Strategy ................................................28Coordinate and Support Cultural Tourism Efforts at the State Level ............................................28Marketing and Partnerships to Promote Cultural Tourism ...................................................29Promote Distinctive Cultural Products ...........................................................................30Develop Unique State Branding ...................................................................................30Stimulate Markets for Cultural Goods ...........................................................................31Market Cultural Events ...............................................................................................31Promote Unique Destinations .......................................................................................32Conclusion ................................................................................................................33Appendix A: Directory of State Economic Impact Reports ......................................................34Appendix B: Publication Series by the NGA Center, NEA, and NASAA ........................................37Endnotes ..................................................................................................................38Acknowledgements and Image Credits .............................................................................42
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4 Using Arts and Culture to Stimulate State Economic Development Executive Summary Arts and culture are important to state economies. Arts and culture-related industries, also known as“creative industries,” provide direct economic benefits to states and communities: They create jobs, attractinvestments, generate tax revenues, and stimulate local economies through tourism and consumer purchases.These industries also provide an array of other benefits, such as infusing other industries with creativeinsight for their products and services and preparing workers to participate in the contemporary workforce.In addition, because they enhance quality of life, the arts and culture are an important complement tocommunity development, enriching local amenities and attracting young professionals to an area."

http://www.nga.org/Files/pdf/0901ARTSANDECONOMY.PDF

I guess I should have previewed that before posting! The last paragraph and link were what was intended.

Guess finger painting will bring more taxpayers to Toledo.

upso said: “ I am going to disagree one thousand percent with your notion that "Art is parasitical" ”

The intensity of your disagreement doesn't matter in the slightest since it's still a fact that artwork isn't an industrial process that pertains to economic prosperity. What DOES matter is the set of industrial processes. Art can't put food on your table; labor, energy and machinery do that.

upso said: “ and what a sad world you must live in... where are "should never be mentioned" ”

It's the "sad world" of solid economic rationality. After all, art should never be mentioned when we're talking about economic development. That should have been obvious here.

Art serves no economic function whatsoever. The basis of economics needn't concern itself with it.

You can discuss it, and indulge in it, all you wish ... but when you become too poor to feed yourself, your over-concentration on art will be your obvious undoing.

In other words: This is a time of attending to NECESSITIES and POLITICS. Art is a luxury and an individual choice. Those two schemes do not intersect under any sane definition. Toledoans are facing a generational economic collapse, in which art serves no function except in the distraction thereof.

You might as well postulate that the taking of recreational drugs is a solution to Toledo's economic malaise. Rec-drugs serve the exact same function as art, economically speaking.

Art? Say What? One of the many mistakes Farty did was planting flowers instead of tumbleweed.

GZ, if marijuana were legal to sell and consume within the Toledo area, I would expect the following to happen almost immediately:

Convenience stores expand to handle different types of the "product" and its accessories

Current smoke shops (water pipes? that sort of thing) expand hours of operation and hiring

Greenhouses, produce stands, anyplace selling live plants expand inventory, order specialized goods to support the new product line

Plain old marijuana shops open up; increased number of jobs, business licenses, tax revenues, advertising money for local media market

Hotels and agencies put together "Toledo High" tourism packages, so baby boomers who haven't had a smoke in 20 years can come to town for the weekend and relive old times (plus eat at local restaurants and buy junk food at local stores)

And perhaps some of this bounty might trickle down to the arts, when enterprising designers create tee shirts and other graphic designs to celebrate and/or make fun of the local situation.