As of Wed morning, Jun 23, a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms exists for northern Ohio today.
View latest info at Storm Prediction Center.
At 7:40 a.m. today, Jun 23, SPC issued a severe thunderstorm watch until 3:00 p.m. for northwest Ohio counties: Defiance, Fulton, Henry, and Williams. The watch also includes local Michigan counties Hillsdale, Lenawee, and Monroe.
As of Wed morning, Jun 23, dew point temps are 70 degrees and higher in the western half of Ohio, all of Indiana, and all but northern Illinois.
JUNE 23 FORECASTS
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
Monroe County
Statement as of 12:03 PM EDT on June 23, 2010
The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has issued a
- Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Monroe County in Southeast Michigan...
- until 1245 PM EDT
- at 1159 am EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing damaging winds in excess
of 60 mph. This storm was located near Ida... or 6 miles north of
Temperance... and moving east at 50 mph.
- The severe thunderstorm will be near...
La Salle and Toledo beach around 1210 PM EDT.
The warning includes areas surrounding these locations...
Temperance... Monroe... Maybee...
Luna Pier... Lambertville... Ida...
Dundee...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Issued at 7:40 a.m. for the northwest Ohio counties Defiance, Fulton, Henry, and Williams.
Radar snapshot at 9:08 a.m. The watch box is defined in blue.
urgent - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm watch number 394
nws storm prediction center norman ok
740 am edt wed jun 23 2010
the nws storm prediction center has issued a
severe thunderstorm watch for portions of
northern indiana
southern and central lower michigan
northwest ohio
lake erie
lake huron
lake michigan
effective this wednesday morning and afternoon from 740 am until
300 pm edt.
hail to 1.5 inches in diameter...thunderstorm wind gusts to 80
mph...and dangerous lightning are possible in these areas.
the severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 105
statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north
northwest of saginaw michigan to 65 miles east southeast of south
bend indiana. for a complete depiction of the watch see the
associated watch outline update (wous64 kwns wou4).
remember...a severe thunderstorm watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings. severe thunderstorms can and occasionally
do produce tornadoes.
other watch information...continue...ww 391...ww 392...ww 393...
discussion...bow mcs now over lk mi expected to continue ewd. mcs
may intensify given strength of associated wind field /per mkx vwp/
and expected sfc heating ahead of it. dmgg wind should be main svr
threat...although risk for isold tornadoes may increase with as
boundary layer warms and moistens later today.
aviation...a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft
to 1.5 inches. extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70
knots. a few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. mean storm
motion vector 27040.
...corfidi
Convective Outlook-2
Weather Channel's Tornado Condition Index forecast
"... the likelihood of a tornado within 50 miles of a given location (we'll call that "area" going forward). Here are the relative meanings of each number on the scale:"
- 10: Near 100% chance of a tornado within 50 miles (we'll call that "area")
- 8: High probability of a tornado in area
- 6: Moderate probability of a tornado in area
- 4: Low probability of a tornado in an area; hail and high winds in t-storms likely
- 2: Unlikely to have a tornado, but hail and high winds in t-storms possible
- 0: Near-zero chance of a tornado or severe t-storms in area
SPC Discussion-2
day 1 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
0755 am cdt wed jun 23 2010
valid 231300z - 241200z
...there is a mdt risk of svr tstms over parts of
wi...il...mi...ind...oh...pa...and upstate ny....
...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms surrounding the mdt risk
area...from parts of the srn plns through the mid ms vly to the
appalachians...
...synopsis...
another active svr weather day expected over parts of the n cntrl
and nern u.s. as two jet disturbances track generally e in zone of
enhanced wly flow on n fringe of elongated srn u.s. ridge. the lead
impulse...now nearing lk mi...should continue e into sw ont by
eve...and me/nb by 12z thu as upstream vort now near krap shears ene
to near lk huron.
...mid/upr ms vly and midwest to lwr grt lks...
vwp...stlt...and raob data suggest that bow mcs associated with lead
upr impulse...now over wrn lwr mi...should move mainly e across the
remainder of lwr mi this morning/early this aftn... before
continuing e into wrn ny and perhaps nw pa later today/early
tonight. while boundary layer air mass along nrn part of this path
is still recovering from yesterdays weak frontal surge...ample
instability should develop to support potential for a fairly broad
swath of dmgg wind and perhaps some hail given even modest sfc
heating. sctd storms may form with daytime heating over ohio and
wrn pa...invof weak warm front beneath diffluent upr flow. these
may yield a couple tornadoes before weakening later in the day.
farther w...sfc heating and approach of sd upr vort should support
intensification of existing storms...and new development...along
cold front extending sw from wi into ern ia and nrn mo...and along
trailing w/e outflow boundary over nrn il and nrn ind associated
with the mi mcs. 40-50 kt deep wly shear...continuing presence of
eml...and very rich boundary layer moisture inflow suggest good
likelihood for sustained supercells. strong low lvl forcing for
ascent and presence of existing slightly elevated storms in ia/nrn
il complicate forecast of the dominant svr threats that will be
posed. but given degree of instability/hi pw...and the potential
for at least quasi-discrete structures during the earlier stages of
storm development...a few tornadoes will be possible in addition to
very large hail and bowing segments with dmgg wind. the storms
likely will merge into an extensive broken band/qlcs from nrn/ern mo
ene into il/ind and possibly srn mi by early eve...with the svr
threat continuing but gradually diminishing through late tonight.
...lwr mo vly to srn hi plns this aftn/eve...
with upr ridge holding firmly over the srn plns...large
scale forcing for ascent will be limited across this region.
nonetheless...frontal uplift and moist/weakly-capped/moderately
unstable environment will be sufficient for isold to sctd strong to
svr storms along/just ahead of se-moving cold front. dmgg winds/svr
hail will be possible late this aftn into early tonight.
...cntrl appalachians/carolinas this aftn/early eve...
aided by a weak/convectively-induced vort max...sctd tstms should
redevelop over the higher terrain of the cntrl appalachians to
portions of the downstate carolinas this aftn. sporadic dmgg wind
gusts will possible during the aftn/early eve.
..corfidi/garner.. 06/23/2010
Hazardous Weather Outlook-2
Issued by the Cleveland National Weather Service at 5:43 a.m.
hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
543 am edt wed jun 23 2010
this hazardous weather outlook is for lake erie...north central
ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania.
.day one...today and tonight.
there is a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms across northern
ohio and northwestern pennsylvania this afternoon into tonight.
the main threat will be strong damaging winds. however marginally
severe hail will be possible.
a warm front lifting across northeast ohio and northwest
pennsylvania may generate enough lift to cause thunderstorms to
develop during the early afternoon. if any isolated supercell
thunderstorms can develop in this area there is a small potential
for the development of a tornado.
elsewhere across the region a warm and moist airmass will be in
place. as temperatures approach 90 degrees the airmass will become
increasingly unstable. while warmer temperatures aloft are expected
to move into the area it may not be enough to suppress thunderstorm
development...especially if any outflow boundaries move into northwest
ohio from morning thunderstorms over michigan.
additional strong to severe thunderstorms may also develop along a
cold front that will sweep across the region during the overnight hours.
.days two through seven...thursday through tuesday.
no hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.spotter information statement...
spotter activation may be needed.
Convert your text:
JUNE 22 FORECASTS
Convective Outlook
Day 2 convective outlook for June 23, 2010 issued in the afternoon of June 22, 2010.
Risk of severe thunderstorms on Wed, Jun 23.
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
SPC Discussion
Day 2 convective outlook for June 23, 2010 issued in the afternoon of June 22, 2010.
spc ac 221643
day 2 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1143 am cdt tue jun 22 2010
valid 231200z - 241200z
...there is a mdt risk of svr tstms over parts of se wi...ne/ncntrl
il...extreme nrn ind...much of lower mi and extreme nw oh...
...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms from wrn new
england/mid-atlantic region swwd into the srn plains...
...synopsis...
primary feature of interest will be the ejection and amplification
of the upper trough from the nrn plains/upper ms valley into the
lower great lakes region on wednesday. associated surface lows will
track from parts of ia ewd along a nwd developing warm front into
mi/swrn ontario through wednesday evening. a cold front will surge
sewd across the midwest and the cntrl/srn plains by 12z thursday.
...upper ms vly into the midwest/oh valley/great lakes region...
one or more rounds of active severe weather will affect a corridor
from the upper ms valley to the lower great lakes on wednesday and
wednesday night.
first order of business will be the nocturnal mcs/possible derecho
expected to ongoing at 12z wednesday over portions of the upper ms
valley. the forward-propagating mcs is likely to continue tracking
ewd across lake mi and into at least the srn half of lower mi during
the morning then swrn ontario during the afternoon. air mass
downstream will gradually recover in wake of today/s departing
impulse...at least as far n as srn lower mi. as a result...there is
sufficient evidence to expect a continuation of damaging wind risks
during the morning into the early afternoon...although there may be
an initial weakening trend of the activity as it encounters slightly
less unstable regime over the cntrl/lower great lakes.
afternoon attention will focus on the 30-60 meter height falls
associated with the approaching mid-level wave. there is medium to
high confidence that the air mass will recover over parts of upper
ms valley ewd into the central great lakes with an extensive zone of
lower 70s surface dew points anticipated along/ahead of the surface
low/cold front. steepening low-level lapse rates in wake of
dissolving morning cloud cover will boost mlcapes 2000-3000 j/kg and
new storms will develop from srn wi/nrn il by mid-afternoon.
vertical wind profiles will be largely unidirectional...but strong
speed shear will contribute to supercell profiles with large hail
and a few tornadoes likely with initial development. activity will
likely develop upscale into another mcs by evening...tracking ewd
across srn lower mi and nrn ind with high winds. activity may
eventually reach the lower great lakes/upstate ny/wrn new england by
12z thursday with risks for damaging winds as the low-level air mass
recovers rapidly in advance of the mid-level impulse.
farther s...a few thunderstorms are expected to form along the
retreating warm front across parts of the mid/upper oh valley during
peak heating wednesday. these storms will be embedded along the
fringe of 40 kt wly mid-level flow and a modest degree of low-level
turning. as a result...a couple of tornadoes/ damaging wind gusts
will be possible with the storms as they move toward wrn pa during
the evening.
...mid-ms valley to the srn plains...
thunderstorms will likely backbuild swwd along the surging cold
front from the developing great lakes mcs into parts of nrn ok.
region will remain removed from higher momentum aloft...but hot
boundary layer and focus for storms will lead to at least widely
scattered damaging wind/hail possibilities.
...central appalachians to nc...
formidable convectively-enhanced impulse now over the mid-ms valley
will track ese into the central appalachians by 12z wednesday.
storms associated with this feature will turn more sely along the
instability axis into parts of srn va/nc during the day wednesday
with sporadic damaging wind gusts possible.
..racy.. 06/22/2010
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service for Lucas County
Hazardous Weather Outlook issued by the NWS in Cleveland on Tue afternoon, Jun 22, 2010.
hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
319 pm edt tue jun 22 2010
this hazardous weather outlook is for lake erie...north central
ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania.
.day one...this afternoon and tonight.
there is a slight chance for severe thunderstorms late tonight.
best chances will be across northwest ohio where an organized line
of thunderstorms may move into the area from the west toward
daybreak.
.days two through seven...wednesday through monday.
there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms wednesday and
wednesday night. best chances will come late wednesday and
wednesday evening ahead of an approaching cold front. an organized
line of severe thunderstorms is possible ahead of the front. wind
gusts in excess of 60 mph will be possible.
.spotter information statement...
spotter activation will likely be needed.
$$
kubina