Significant volatile weather has occurred in June and July in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio. Most if not all of the severe weather has missed the Toledo city limits while areas around Toledo have been less fortunate. After today, stable weather is forecast for the next six days.
SPC
A slight risk of severe thunderstorms exists today, July 28, for northwest Ohio and southeast Michigan.
Probability of damging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
NWS
Hazardous Weather Outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
516 am edt wed jul 28 2010
this hazardous weather outlook is for lake erie...north central
ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania.
.day one...today and tonight.
there is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
early tonight. the risk will begin about mid to late afternoon in
the northwest part of the area and spread southeast over the rest
of the area during the evening. damaging winds will be the primary
threat from any severe storms. the threat will diminish by
midnight for most areas as any remaining thunderstorms are
expected to weaken by then.
spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and evening.
days two through seven...thursday through tuesday.
the probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.
Noon Updates
As of 12:15 p.m. EDT, no watches have been issued by the SPC.
Regional radar loop ending at Noon shows a broken line of scattered rain cells stretching west-southwest from Lake Ontario, through southern Ontario, Canada, through central Michigan to southern Wisconsin. Rain appears to be moving east-southeast. If this is the line to develop and become severe, then expect watch boxes to be issued between 12:30 and 2:30 p.m. for one or more of the following areas: northern Illinois, northern Indiana, northern Ohio, southern Michigan, northern Pennsylvania, and western New York.
11:53 a.m. weather at Toledo Metcalf airport shows temperature of 87 degrees and a moist dew point of 74 degrees.
Dew points over 70 degrees provide good conditions for thunderstorms. Though not magical, the 70-degree mark for dew point temperatures is a stat to watch.
12:00 p.m. dew point map shows a large area of the Midwest and Southeast with dew points of 70 to 74 degrees. An area of dew point temps 75 to 79 degrees exists in southern half of Illinois and extreme western Indiana.
SPC Noon Update
12:05 p.m. SPC convective outlook update:
spc ac 281605
day 1 convective outlook
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1105 am cdt wed jul 28 2010
valid 281630z - 291200z
...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms from parts of the midwest/lwr
grt lks to nwrn new england...
...there is a slgt risk of svr tstms over parts of the nrn grt
basin/intermountain region...
...synopsis...
large summertime upper high dominates much of u.s. with the center
gradually developing wwd across srn plains. system moving ewd
across sern canada providing some height falls and stronger flow
from great lakes to new england. large scale trough remains off w
coast as s/wv impulse/vort max moving nnewd from current position
nrn ca thru ern ore this afternoon to nrn id/nwrn mt by thu am.
...midwest/lwr grt lakes to nwrn new england this aftn/eve...
cold front at 16z extends wswwd from lh to srn wi...across nwrn ks
to ern co. very moist air mass is spreading ewd across oh valley to
as far e as wrn new england by later today in advance of the cold
front. with daytime heating...instability will also increase
sufficiently to support an organized band of thunderstorms to
develop in association with the frontal convergence. while the
stronger flow will remain generally n of the front and overall lapse
rates will remain weak...the 30 kt of mid level flow coupled with
mlcapes upwards to 2000 j/kg will foster organization of storms into
bands. embedded bowing segments will be capable of damaging wind
gusts from mid afternoon through early tonight. greatest threat of
wind damage vicinity le where better combo of instability/shear will
be positioned along with enhanced convergence of the lake breeze
front.
...nrn great basin/intermountain region this afternoon/eve...
considerable generally weak convection has developed in advance of
nrn ca impulse this morning in response to associated large scale
ascent and elevated capes from 500-1000 j/kg. with heating... lapse
rates will steepen and strengthen thunderstorms by mid afternoon
increasing the likelihood of not only large hail but wind damage
potential. sufficient deep layer shear to 40kt for storm rotation
with the strongest updrafts. this would enhance both the wind and
hail potential. by mid afternoon when the convective threat would
be maximized...vort max will be tracking nnewd thru ern or. have
extended the slight risk ewd into sern id given the available
moisture/instability moving nwd from ut/nern nv...even though shear
will be a little weaker.
...tn vly to ga/carolina's...
with a continued very moist and potentially unstable air mass across
the area...scattered diurnal storms will again occur. greatest
threat of downburst winds will be in areas that have the least
morning cloud cover to impede the heating process. shear is weak so
svr threat will continue to be of the pulse variety.
Watches Issued
The SPC issued two severe thunderstorm watches.
- #545 issued at 1:20 p.m. EDT until 8:00 p.m. EDT for parts of northern Indiana, southern lower Michigan, northern Ohio, and Lake Erie. Includes Toledo.
- #546 issued at 3:25 p.m. until 9:00 p.m. EDT for parts of eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and northwest Indiana.
Warnings Issued
Around 3:00 p.m. EDT, the NWS in Michigan issued severe thunderstorm warnings for Monroe and Lennawee counties.
At 3:43 p.m. EDT, NWS in northern Indiana issued a severe thunderstorm warning issued for parts of northeast Indiana.
As of 4:05 p.m. EDT, severe thunderstorm warnings continue for the four counties in the southeast corner of southern lower Michigan and six counties in north central and northeast Indiana.
At 4:09 p.m. EDT, NWS weather radio alarm sounded. Severe thunderstorm warning issued for Lucas and northern Wood counties until 5:00 p.m. I believe this warning was issued because of the rapidly formed Fulton County storm that has now moved into southwest Lucas County. This should miss most of Toledo. It could scrap south Toledo and Maumee, and it appears it will definitely hit northern Wood County.
NWS statement:
Statement as of 4:07 PM EDT on July 28, 2010
The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a
- Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Lucas County in Northwest Ohio
northern Wood County in Northwest Ohio
- until 500 PM EDT
- at 403 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing damaging winds in excess
of 60 mph. This storm was located 10 miles northwest of
Whitehouse... and moving east at 40 mph.
- Locations impacted include...
Sylvania...
Waterville...
Perrysburg...
Rossford...
Toledo...
Oregon...
Another severe thunderstorm warning for Lucas County.
Statement as of 4:22 PM EDT on July 28, 2010
The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a
- Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
northeastern Lucas County in Northwest Ohio
Ottawa County in Northwest Ohio
- until 515 PM EDT
- at 416 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing damaging winds in excess
of 60 mph. This storm was located 6 miles northwest of Oregon...
and moving east at 30 mph.
- Locations impacted include...
Oregon...
Put-In-Bay...
Port Clinton...
Oak Harbor...
Genoa...
As of 4:26 p.m., severe thunderstorm warnings exist for four Michigan counties, six Indiana counties, and five Ohio counties. Lucas, Wood, and Ottawa in the Toledo area. And two counties western Ohio along the Indiana border.
Radar
The 3:20 p.m. local radar loop shows a nearly solid, narrow line of storms stretching from southwest Ontario, Canada, through southern lower Michigan, northern Indian, and then a gap around Chicago, and then the line continues through northern Illinois and into eastern Iowa. Line is moving southeast. This line is very narrow. Storms should be brief but may be intense.
The 3:34 p.m. radar loop shows storms in northeast Indian and southern Michigan and near the Ohio border in extreme northwest Ohio. The strongest, closest cells are in Lennawee County. Overall, it appears the line is weakening already. It must have blown up rapidly, and it's now fizzling out. If the Lennawee County storm holds together, it appears it will hit Toledo. It will pass through central and/or eastern Lucas County.
3:59 p.m. radar loop shows line of storms at northern and western borders of Lucas County. No warnings for Lucas County. This radar loop seems to show a new, large cell rapidly forming in Fulton County. Storms are also entering extreme northwest Ohio. Cells are moving east-southeast. Remnants of the Lennawee County storm should still hit Toledo. The new Fulton County cell formed rapidly just after 3:30 p.m.
Radar loop ending at 4:24 p.m. shows the line of storms to be growing some. The line now in northwest Ohio, including over Toledo, seems more cohesive.