April 26, 2011 watches, warnings, and advisories for the Toledo area:
Tornado Watchin effect until 10:00 p.m.Wind Advisoryin effect until 10:00 p.m.- Flood Watch in effect through late Wednesday night.
- Flood Warning continues for the Maumee River at Waterville
- Flood Warning continues for the Maumee River near Grand Rapids.
Lucas County SKYWARN: 147.27
Updates:
- 11:09 p.m. Tue, Apr 26, 2011: The storms in Indiana have dissipated. We may be rain-free for the rest of the night. A large blob of rain, however, exists in the lower Ohio River valley, and it appears to be moving northeastward. Northwest Ohio may have a higher chance of severe weather on Wed, Apr 27. Have to wait for the the morning's forecast from the Storm Prediction Center.
- 10:02 p.m. Tue, Apr 26, 2011: The Tornado Watch and the Wind Advisory expired at 10:00 p.m. Severe weather continues in central and western Indiana.
- 9:43 p.m. Tue, Apr 26, 2011: Latest radar shows the line of storms in central and western Indiana to be increasing in intensity. Seven Indiana counties in these areas are now under a severe thunderstorm warning. This line seems to be moving to the northeast. I'm guessing our tornado watch will either be extended or changed to a severe thunderstorm watch, which will last well past Midnight. That's if these Indiana storms are expected to maintain strength or grow stronger.
- 9:20 p.m. Tue, Apr 26, 2011: NWS statement at 9:03 p.m.: Tornado Watch remains in effect until 10:00 p.m. for the following Ohio counties: Hancock, Lucas, and Wood. The watch area was reduced in size. It mainly covers Michigan and central Indiana. A narrow line of showers and thunderstorms extends from northeast Indiana to west central Indiana.
- 3:20 p.m. Tue, Apr 26, 2011: At 3:19 p.m., Cleveland NWS issued a Wind Advisory until 10:00 p.m.
- 3:10 p.m. Tue, Apr 26, 2011: At 3:02 p.m., a Tornado Watch was issued that includes portions of the Toledo area. The watch is in effect until 10:00 p.m. EDT.
- 2:45 p.m. Tue, Apr 26, 2011: Earlier this afternoon, the Storm Prediction Center said the chance for severe weather was increasing in northwest Ohio and southeast Michigan for this afternoon and evening and a watch may need to be issued.
- 2:40 p.m. Tue, Apr 26, 2011: The Storm Prediction Center's Day 2 convective outlook shows a likelihood of severe weather in northwest Ohio on Wed, Apr 27. A slight chance exists today.
Tornado Watch Apr 26
Statement as of 3:05 PM EDT on April 26, 2011
Counties in the watch area include: Lucas, Wood, Fulton, Henry, Monroe, and Lenawee.
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
Tornado Watch for portions of
eastern Illinois
northern and central Indiana
much of lower Michigan
Northwest Ohio
Lake Erie
Lake Huron
Lake Michigan
Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 305 PM until
1000 PM EDT.
Tornadoes... hail to 2 inches in diameter... thunderstorm wind
gusts to 70 mph... and dangerous lightning are possible in these
areas.
The Tornado Watch area is approximately along and 90 statute
miles east and west of a line from 50 miles northwest of Bad Axe
Michigan to 20 miles southwest of Indianapolis Indiana. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (wous64 kwns wou6).
Remember... a Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
Other watch information... continue... ww 213... ww 214... ww 215...
Discussion... as a surface low continues to develop northeastward
toward Lake Michigan... relatively low topped storms are expected to
increase through the afternoon ahead of a cold front. As the airmass
continues to gradually destabilize... strong southwesterly deep
tropospheric flow will support the development of some
supercells/organized linear clusters capable of damaging
winds... severe hail... and a few tornadoes.
Aviation... tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface
wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to
400. Mean storm motion vector 24040.
Updating maps:
Radar
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Warnings
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Wind Advisory Apr 26
Statement as of 3:19 PM EDT on April 26, 2011
... Wind Advisory in effect until 10 PM EDT this evening...
The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a Wind
Advisory... which is in effect until 10 PM EDT this evening.
Winds continue to gust over 40 miles an hour this afternoon for
much of the north central and northwest sections of Ohio. Winds
are expected to remain gusty early this evening with a few gusts
up to 45 miles an hour. The winds are expected to decrease later
this evening.
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
A Wind Advisory is issued when sustained winds are forecast to be
31 to 39 mph or gusts will range between 46 and 57 mph. Winds of
these magnitudes may cause minor property damage without extra
precautions. Motorists in high profile vehicles should use
caution until the winds subside. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio
for further details or updates.
Areal Flood Watch
Statement as of 11:05 AM EDT on April 26, 2011
... Flood Watch remains in effect through late Wednesday night...
The Flood Watch continues for
portions of north central Ohio... northeast Ohio and Northwest
Ohio... including the following areas... in north central Ohio...
Ashland... Crawford... Erie OH... Huron... Knox... Lorain...
Marion... Morrow and Richland. In northeast Ohio... Cuyahoga...
Holmes... Medina and Wayne. In Northwest Ohio... Hancock...
Lucas... Ottawa... Sandusky... Seneca... wood and Wyandot.
Through late Wednesday night
several periods of heavy showers and thunderstorms... combined
with the saturated ground... could lead to flooding.
Thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. Heavy
rains from thunderstorms will cause rapid rises on rivers and
streams throughout the area.
Precautionary/preparedness actions...
A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be
alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding
develop. Stay tuned to weather radio for further details or
updates
Flood Warnings
Waterville
Statement as of 5:21 PM EDT on April 26, 2011
The Flood Warning continues for
the Maumee River at Waterville.
* At 4:00 PM Tuesday the stage was 9.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 9.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast... the river will continue rising to near 11.7 feet by
Friday morning then begin falling.
* At 9.0 feet... flooding occurs in lowland areas near the river.
Grand Rapids
Statement as of 5:11 PM EDT on April 26, 2011
The Flood Warning continues for
the Maumee River near Grand Rapids.
* From Thursday morning until further notice.
* At 7:30 am Tuesday the stage was 12.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 15.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast... rise above flood stage by Thursday morning and continue
to rise to near 16.4 feet by Friday morning.
* At 16.5 feet... Thurston State Park flooded. Portions of west front
street will be inundated.
Cleve NWS Msgs
Messages from the Cleveland National Weather Service for the Toledo area:
Statement 8:55 a.m. Apr 26
hazardous weather outlook...updated
national weather service cleveland oh
855 am edt tue apr 26 2011
...flood watch in effect through late wednesday night...
this hazardous weather outlook is for north central
ohio...northeast ohio and northwest ohio.
.day one...today and tonight.
thunderstorms will develop this afternoon. some of the
thunderstorms could become severe with damaging winds...large hail
and heavy rain.
.days two through seven...wednesday through monday.
another round of thunderstorms will occur wednesday. some of the
thunderstorms could become severe with damaging winds...large hail
and heavy rain.
.spotter information statement...
spotter activation may be needed today and wednesday.
SPC Msgs
Data from the Storm Prediction Center:
Mesoscale 1:26 p.m. Apr 26
mesoscale discussion 0587
nws storm prediction center norman ok
1226 pm cdt tue apr 26 2011
areas affected...eastern il into much of indiana/western oh and
southern lower mi
concerning...severe potential...watch possible
valid 261726z - 261900z
the severe threat is expected to gradually increase through the
afternoon from eastern il into much of indiana/southern lower mi and
eventually western oh. a watch may be needed for at least portions
of the region.
as the brunt of a lead shortwave trough continues to pivot
northeastward toward the upper great lakes region...midday surface
analysis reflects a surface low over the upper ms valley...with an
associated cold front extending south-southwestward into the middle
ms valley. along/east of a cold front amid a region of low level
confluence...tstms are expected to continue to develop within an
increasingly unstable/weakly capped boundary from eastern il into
much of indiana/western oh and southern lower mi...where modest
cloud breaks are occurring coincident with upper 50s f surface
dewpoints. as storms mature...strong low-mid tropospheric
southwesterly flow will yield fast northeastward-moving
tstms...including a few supercells/organized line segments...capable
of damaging winds/severe hail and perhaps a tornado. convective
trends will continue to be monitored for the possibility of a watch.
Outlook 12:27 p.m. Apr 26
SPC Convective Outlook issued issued: 26/1627Z and valid: 26/1630Z - 27/1200Z
Outlook 1:30 p.m. Apr 26
Forecast for Wednesday, April 27.
SPC Convective Outlook Issued: 26/1730Z and Valid: 27/1200Z - 28/1200Z
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
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