Toledo Talk

1978 Blizzard Redux ?

Caught Blizzard Bill at 6:00. He says we could get a blizzard next Wednesday with 14" of snow. I'm thinking - Nah.

created by holland on Jan 29, 2011 at 08:14:32 pm     Outdoors     Comments: 235

source      versions


Comments ... #

Unless the snow is coming in a wide swath from Lansing to Columbus its gonna go north or south of us as usual.

posted by Linecrosser on Jan 29, 2011 at 08:33:56 pm     #   1 person liked this

hope it doesn't happen, but if it does i will definitely enjoy the days off!

posted by upso on Jan 29, 2011 at 08:37:42 pm     #  

About time. We're lagging behind the others. The Gulf Coast states, the southeast coast, the northeast, the upper Mississippi Valley area, and the snowbelts have been dumped on this winter. Toledo has had all this wonderful cold weather for nearly two months now that's going to waste because all we get is flimsy 1/2-inch to 3-inch snowfalls.

Blizzard of '78 - What Happened in Ohio: A Meteorological Review

posted by jr on Jan 29, 2011 at 09:11:20 pm     #  

Nice informational recap. I lived it, as I suspect quite a few others posting here did also. In all honesty I loved it. However that wonderment of what nature can do was tempered by the lives lost. Should we get anything of that severity again, I hope folks are wiser about how dangerous it can be and take appropriate precautions. I guarantee that anyone who did experience 1978 will know what to do and what not to do. Don't be a cowboy and venture out unless you are a critically needed person such as medical personnell. Stock up on perishables. It was a week before you could get any milk. And don't forget the beer. Birth control might not be a bad idea either. There were a lot of blizzard babies 9 months later.

posted by holland on Jan 29, 2011 at 09:36:24 pm     #   1 person liked this

National Weather Service statement issued Saturday afternoon:

hazardous weather outlook
national weather service cleveland oh
339 pm est sat jan 29 2011

this hazardous weather outlook is for north central
ohio...northeast ohio...northwest ohio and northwest pennsylvania.

.day one...this afternoon and tonight.

some patchy freezing drizzle is possible this evening across
northeast and north central ohio as well as northwest pennsylvania.

.days two through seven...sunday through friday.

a significant low pressure storm system is forecast to move across
ohio on wednesday. snow will develop tuesday night...and depending
upon the exact track of the low...a widespread 4 to 6 inches with
locally higher amounts...is possible by wednesday afternoon. in
addition portions of north central and northeast ohio...and
northwest pennsylvania could see a period of freezing rain or
sleet late tuesday night into wednesday morning. the exact track
of the low is still in doubt at this time.

posted by jr on Jan 29, 2011 at 11:42:05 pm     #  

Excerpts from a Saturday night NWS forecast discussion:

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1135 pm est sat jan 29 2011

.short term /6 am sunday morning through tuesday night/...
quiet albeit colder conditions for tomorrow and into monday as large
arctic high plunges into the northern and central plains...with
ridge across the great lakes.

as colder air sets up looks like overrunning situation develops
monday night into tuesday with a quick couple of inches of snow.
nam is faster than gfs or ecmwf and moves snow in monday afternoon.
but since nam is outlier will keep monday dry.

mid week looks ugly. models both develop low pressure system over
texas on tuesday...then move it across ohio during the day
wednesday. exact timing and track still in doubt. for now ecmwf is
faster and tracks low across northern ohio...while gfs a little
slower and tracks low across southern/central ohio. either way will
see some heavy snow tuesday night into wednesday...with at least a
chance for freezing rain or sleet across portions of ne...north
central ohio and nw pa late tuesday into wednesday morning. as
strong as the high gfs solution seems more reasonable...at least for
now.

&&

.long term /wednesday through saturday/...
strong low pressure system is progged to move east and out of the
area on thursday. strong ridge will build east into the region
thursday. a weak storm system will move northeast across the ohio
and tennessee valleys for friday into saturday. this feature will
spread some light snow into the region with the highest
probabilities being over the east.

minor changes made to temperatures through this forecast period
since models all seem to be in relatively close agreement with one
another and from run to run.

posted by jr on Jan 29, 2011 at 11:44:23 pm     #  

Yeah, Holland. I just saw Blizzard Bill give the forecast and it is starting to look like 78'. Almost the same scenario. Starting with freezing rain, followed by severe wind and heavy snow over a three day period. I sure hope not. I remember some people had their electricity off for a while in 78. My aunt and uncle lived in a rural area with my cousins, who were very young, and had no electricity for days. They had a fireplace, and started hacking away at the furniture to stay warm. Fortunately, emergency crews were finally able to get to them. I do hope the electricity, if it goes out, won't be out for very long.

posted by bikerdude on Jan 30, 2011 at 12:26:15 am     #  

I think it's just an ugly rumor.

posted by madjack on Jan 30, 2011 at 12:35:26 am     #  

All the models I saw (five so far) show NW Ohio either on the northern edge or in the center of this storm. At this point the low end is looking like six inches, with a foot or more in the range of projections. Lots of bad factors here: freezing rain early, heavy snow, then changing to super cold Arctic temperatures. Maybe not Blizzard of '78 material, but certainly the nastiest storm of the year, and maybe the nastiest since that wicked storm that put the smackdown on us over New Year's Day in 1999.

I am not going zany in preparations, but I did fill up the snow blower gas can and purchased some calcium chloride. I'll probably go grocery shopping early tomorrow to beat the storm-freaked folks (we are already low on stuff like milk, bread, and dog food).

I am hoping the storm at least waits until the last BGSU class I teach is over on Tuesday; it gets out at 5:15, and I do not look forward to a long commute back from BG in a frigging blizzard.

posted by historymike on Jan 30, 2011 at 12:44:42 am     #  

Storm track via Weather.com:

storm

Composite of predictive tracks for the low pressure center responsible for the looming storm:

track

posted by historymike on Jan 30, 2011 at 01:00:03 am     #  

I was out in the blizzard of 78 it cut a swatch from Kentucky to the upper penninsula of Michigan there was no way to avoid it and it lasted for like 3 days with heavy snow and strong winds, the one in 99 was close but didn't last as long. This dont seem big enough to do the damage of either storm unless its gonna strengthen. Its still to early to tell what its gonna do, no one saw it coming in 78 and barely saw 99, I think this is wishful thinking.

posted by Linecrosser on Jan 30, 2011 at 01:05:56 am     #  

So we are now at Defcon 2 and probably headed higher. Or do we use the color-coded snow terror alert system?

Local governments will assemble in war rooms on Sunday to dust off their emergency management and response manuals.

If storm damage is severe, we may need to communicate using Morse Code over Ham radios.

posted by jr on Jan 30, 2011 at 01:18:57 am     #   1 person liked this

"When all else fails, ham radio does not". ;)

posted by INeedCoffee on Jan 30, 2011 at 04:40:20 am     #  

that reminds me, I'm out of ham.... I just hope that everyone is safe if the storm does materialize.... and now I have to see if I can find that letter from the sheriff stating that I'm allowed to drive in snow emergencies, DRAT...

posted by makinTV on Jan 30, 2011 at 09:51:04 am     #  

jr you crack me up.

posted by toledoinmd on Jan 30, 2011 at 10:01:31 am     #  

Here's to hoping they are wrong. Bring on spring!

posted by JeepMaker on Jan 30, 2011 at 10:07:59 am     #   1 person liked this

"When all else fails, ham radio does not". ;)

December 2007 Toledo Talk thread about a looming megadeath winter event that mentioned amateur radio operators.

A few years ago, a major ice storm slammed parts of Arkansas, and it was the amateur radio operators who enabled communications to continue in the affected areas.

From the FEMA Web site :

"When all the phone service, cell phone and radio networks were not working, amateur radio operators came to the rescue providing emergency communications," said Jerry Roberts, county coordinator for Sebastian County. "They assisted in restoring communication to the county sheriff and the emergency medical services. Radio-operators even rode with sheriff's deputies to provide radio communications."

All communications in Garland County, including the eight radio stations, were out of commission as a result of the ice storm. "Had it not been for the amateur radio clubs and the ham radio operators, I don't know how we could have done it," said Joy Sanders, emergency management coordinator for Garland County. "They supplied us with the equipment and operators that allowed us to keep communications open and to shuttle messages to Little River, Hot Spring and Montgomery counties."


Two comments from that thread:

"the amateur radio (HAM) operators are an integral part of Lucas County's emergency services. The operators hold drills every year to practice a need to be on duty for a 48-hour period of time."

"Toledo has the most amazing Amateur radio concentration unlike any other city or state I've been in."

posted by jr on Jan 30, 2011 at 10:46:48 am     #  

Time to hit the grocery store today. Perhaps the office gets closed on Wednesday. Better get a DVD or two.

posted by Hoops on Jan 30, 2011 at 10:56:39 am     #  

The older wood county server is down, there is a new one though.

http://woodcounty-ares.org/

posted by INeedCoffee on Jan 30, 2011 at 11:17:12 am     #  

I am with Hoops: nothing like an unexpected day off, though in my case I can count on one hand the number of classes cancelled in 10 years of being a graduate student or college instructor. The high schools and elementary schools close or delay for a relative dusting, while colleges only seem to close when snow totals break the double digits.

But yes: spending a morning or two in front of the fireplace sounds quite appealing. Bring on the hell-storm!

posted by historymike on Jan 30, 2011 at 11:25:09 am     #  

INeedCoffee, the link http://woodcounty-ares.org still points to nothing related to ARES.

posted by jr on Jan 30, 2011 at 11:42:21 am     #   1 person liked this

EVERYBODY PANIC! Looks like a run to the liquor store is in my future.

posted by hunkytownsausage on Jan 30, 2011 at 12:25:40 pm     #   2 people liked this

Liquor..check! Bread... check! Milk...check. Dog food.... check. Smokes, check.... OK, guess I am ready, bring it on! LMAO

posted by golddustwoman on Jan 30, 2011 at 12:29:30 pm     #   2 people liked this

Holland (talking about the Blizzard o' 78): It was a week before you could get any milk. And don't forget the beer. Birth control might not be a bad idea either. There were a lot of blizzard babies 9 months later.

Milk, beer, & birth control--now THAT'S how you get through a winter storm!

Download some booty music, keep the lights down low, and listen to the subtle howling wind outside...

posted by oldhometown on Jan 30, 2011 at 12:54:12 pm     #  

snowpocalypse!

posted by toledolen_ on Jan 30, 2011 at 01:01:05 pm     #   1 person liked this

LOL, excellent---make a note of the Tuesday night-into-Wednesday forecast details...

http://www.accuweather.com/us/oh/toledo/43620/forecast-details.asp

posted by McCaskey on Jan 30, 2011 at 01:09:34 pm     #  

holy crap!

posted by upso on Jan 30, 2011 at 01:11:42 pm     #  

18.3 Inches of Snow on the way!

posted by toledolen_ on Jan 30, 2011 at 01:12:29 pm     #  

Far more important than the predicted snowfall amount--which could obviously vary--is the wind. However much snow we end up getting is going to blow like a sumbitch.

posted by McCaskey on Jan 30, 2011 at 01:14:55 pm     #   2 people liked this

This is my winter storm survival gear.

posted by hunkytownsausage on Jan 30, 2011 at 01:20:34 pm     #   3 people liked this

hunkytownsausage must stay in South Toledo hehehehehe

posted by djimpelr on Jan 30, 2011 at 01:58:35 pm     #  

jr: give it 24-48 hour sorry about that. The domain name expired on the 28th just renewed it today.

posted by INeedCoffee on Jan 30, 2011 at 02:00:24 pm     #  

Oh crap hunkytown. I laughed so hard I snorted coffee out my nose.

posted by holland on Jan 30, 2011 at 03:12:25 pm     #  

@ Historymike

As a Professor can't you make the decision to cancel your classes??? At UT the Profs can make their own call. Just curious....

posted by RockChick on Jan 30, 2011 at 03:22:12 pm     #  

RockChick: technically, yes, I reserve the right to manage my classes as I see fit, but in six years of teaching I have never cancelled a class unless a college or university closed. Call me old-fashioned, or stubborn, I suppose.

posted by historymike on Jan 30, 2011 at 04:21:51 pm     #  

4:15 p.m., Sun, Jan 30, 2011 screenshot of what McCaskey mentioned. The Tuesday forecast below says, "a bit of snow."

posted by jr on Jan 30, 2011 at 04:24:49 pm     #  

From the National Weather Service:

Statement as of 3:14 PM EST on January 30, 2011

... Winter Storm Watch in effect from Monday evening through
Wednesday evening...

The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a Winter
Storm Watch... which is in effect from Monday evening through
Wednesday evening.

Snow will begin to spread into the area Monday evening along a
warm front. Snowfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are possible Monday
night with the first surge of snow.

The intensity of the snow will diminish for a period of time
Tuesday morning as the first surge of snow moves off to the east.
As the strong low pressure system approaches the area... the
snowfall intensity will increase again Tuesday afternoon. An
additional accumulation of 4 to 6 inches of snow is also possible Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday evening.

There is the possibility that the snow will become mixed with
sleet and freezing rain Tuesday afternoon across the extreme south
and then gradually spread north to affect the rest of the area
Tuesday night.

The snow... sleet and freezing rain combination is expected to
continue into Wednesday morning when it will then change back to
all snow. The snow is expected to end Wednesday evening from west
to east as the storm system moves east of the area.

posted by jr on Jan 30, 2011 at 04:29:18 pm     #  

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
415 pm est sun jan 30 2011

.synopsis...
a warm front will move north toward the area monday into monday
night. a strong low pressure system will move northeast along the
warm front monday through wednesday. the storm system will move east
of the area wednesday into wednesday night.

&&

.near term /until 6 am monday morning/...
the near term period will be rather tranquil compared to what is to
come over the next 48 to 60 hours.

a few light snow flurries have been reported at cle at this time but
i anticipate this will remain an isolated area over the next hour or
so. as drier air moves south into the region...the cloud deck over
the area is becoming more convective in nature and hence will become
diurnal with sunset. i anticipate the clouds will break apart even
more this evening with some clearing in some locations.

the main problem with this is how low will the temperatures drop
tonight. good radiational cooling will take place tonight and allow
temperatures to plummet. i fear that i did not go cold enough
overnight so temperatures will have to be monitored closely.
&&

.short term /6 am through wednesday night/...
fair weather continues for one more period on monday as arctic high
pressure continues to build southeast over the forecast area.

the high pressure begins to retreat back northeast monday night as a
warm front lifts north into the region. the front will become
nearly stationary monday night and lay the path down for the track
of the low pressure system.

european and gfs models are getting into closer agreement with the
track of the low pressure system. there is still some uncertainty
as to where the exact track will be. but all things are pointing
toward taking the center of the low northeast across central ohio
into erie pennsylvania. this scenario sets up the area for a
potential wintry mix storm across the forecast area. the problem
lies with the well above normal temperatures across the southeastern
united states and the arctic air to the north. the storm system will
crank up and tap into the warm air to the south and cold air to the
north.

snow is expected to spread into the forecast area monday night ahead
of the warm front. this is actually the first surge of two. ample
moisture and fairly good upward vertical motion is expected monday
night as shortwave rotates into the area. the shortwave shifts east
of the area tuesday morning and allows for some good sinking motion
over the region. this may produce a lull in the precipitation during
the morning hours.

the next surge of moisture races northeast into the area tuesday
afternoon and tuesday night with strong upward vertical motion and
copious amount of moisture. this is the part that worries me with
the warm air expected to race north and over the stationary
boundary. as of now...we are expecting the snow to become mixed with
sleet and freezing rain mainly from lorain county southwest to
marion and morrow counties and points east tuesday night. the
problem lies in how fast the warm air arrives. there is the
possibility that snow accumulations could be limited with a quick
change over to freezing rain. there is the potential for
significant ice accumulations over the eastern half of the area. in
the extreme...ice accumulations could approach three quarters of an
inch with an early changeover.

erie county pennsylvania could be under the gun with a potential for
significant snow and sleet accumulations along with the toledo area.
both of these areas will either remain in the snow for the longest
period of time.

the eastern half of the ohio portion of the forecast area could see
a complete change over to all rain wednesday morning with the warm
surge. i anticipate the rain to be short lived in a 5 to 6 hour time
frame when the low moves east of the area allowing sharply colder
air to return.

rain will change over to all snow and temperatures will plummet
during the afternoon on wednesday. snow will end from west to east
during the day and continue over northwest pennsylvania into
wednesday night.

warm up in the east should be short lived enough that snow should be
able to absorb liquid precipitation and prevent runoff and flooding
problems. hopefully...we dont see a rapid snow melt wednesday
morning. if this occurs...then problems with runoff will occur along
with ice jam problems...especially in the east. all rivers are ice
covered at this time.

posted by jr on Jan 30, 2011 at 04:37:27 pm     #   1 person liked this

What is the record for a single snowfall in Toledo?

posted by bolt98 on Jan 30, 2011 at 04:51:31 pm     #  

Looks like a storm on and around 29 Feb 1900 might be a contender... 22" in a couple of days, 19" of it on the 29th. There was a storm with a similar track that hit Detroit with 24" in 1886, but I cant find Toledo data.

The 78 storm was part of nearly 31" for the month of January that year. It seems only 13" of snow fell during the storm, but the wind and ice really mucked things up.

posted by prairieson on Jan 30, 2011 at 05:42:15 pm     #  

There has seldom, if ever, been a more misleading statistic than the 'official' snowfall total regarding the Blizzard of '78.

I know of nobody who lived through that who lived in Northern Ohio, Northern Indiana or Southern Michigan who buys the 13-inch, 15-16 inch or whatever is regarded as the 'official' amount.

Even if that's 'accurate', those inches were buffeted about by winds approaching 70 m.p.h. at the height of the storm.

What gives a more meaningful impression is that wherever you where in the early-morning hours of that Thursday Jan. 26 is where you stayed for the better part of the next week, unless you were close enough to walk to a super-market or drug store. People simply did not move, could not move.

We haven't seen anything really close to that since, and, although 'never say never', I'm confidant in saying most of us won't see that again in our lifetimes.

Tuesday night-Wednesday looks very interesting; it won't be '78...

posted by McCaskey on Jan 30, 2011 at 06:02:26 pm     #   1 person liked this

I get so scared from all this scary talk I go poo-poo in my pants !

posted by frigus_veritas on Jan 30, 2011 at 06:30:11 pm     #   6 people liked this

Recent NWS statement:

urgent - winter weather message
national weather service cleveland oh
952 pm est sun jan 30 2011

...winter storm to hit the region...

.a warm front will lift north across the area during the next
48 hours. a strong winter storm will move northeast into northern
ohio and northwest pennsylvania along the warm front and spread a
wintry mix of precipitation across the area. the storm system is
expected to move east of the region wednesday night.

...winter storm watch remains in effect from monday evening
through wednesday evening...

snow will begin to spread into the area monday evening along a
warm front. snowfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches are possible
monday night with the first surge of snow.

the intensity of the snow will diminish for a period of time
tuesday morning as the first surge of snow moves off to the east.
as the strong low pressure system approaches the area...the
snowfall intensity will increase again tuesday afternoon. an
additional accumulation of 4 to 6 inches of snow is also possible
tuesday afternoon into tuesday evening.

there is the possibility that the snow will become mixed with
sleet and freezing rain tuesday afternoon across the extreme
south and then gradually spread north to affect the rest of the
area tuesday night.

the snow...sleet and freezing rain combination is expected to
continue into wednesday morning when it will then change back to
all snow. the snow is expected to end wednesday evening from west
to east as the storm system moves east of the area.

posted by jr on Jan 30, 2011 at 11:11:15 pm     #  

The Toledo forecast from AccuWeather now says 18.7 inches of snow is on the way. That's up from 18.3 predicted earlier today.

Here is AccuWeather's detailed snowfall forecast for the Toledo area:

  • Monday night: 2.4 inches
  • Tuesday: 0.1 inches
  • Tuesday night: 16.2 inches!
  • Wednesday: 3.5 inches

Here is AccuWeather's weather forecast for Toledo on Tuesday night:

"Blizzard conditions with strong winds, low visibility and heavy snow, accumulating 1-2 feet"

1 to 2 feet of snow in Toledo, Ohio overnight?? That sounds like a software glitch.

From my observations of winter weather events in recent years, AccuWeather's snowfall predictions have been more accurate than the predictions from the National Weather Service. In the past, it has been the NWS that has tended to predict on the high side for snowfall amounts.

posted by jr on Jan 30, 2011 at 11:22:43 pm     #  

Blizzard Bill used the words "thunder ice".

HOLY F*CK. I've seen thundersnow, that was kinda awesome to have cool purple lightning in, but thunder ice scares the living crap out of me. What next, we have an EF4 snow tornado blow through the area?

Is it actually possible to have a tornado during a snowstorm, or are the dynamics such that we really can't get rotation and uplift enough for one to form? Because it would be interesting to see rotation indication in a blizzard... the snow ought to muffle the sirens and I can just see people going WTF when they issue a tornado warning.

posted by anonymouscoward on Jan 30, 2011 at 11:55:24 pm     #  

AccuWeather's forecast for Toledo on Tuesday night:

posted by jr on Jan 30, 2011 at 11:59:09 pm     #  

"...Is it actually possible to have a tornado during a snowstorm,..."

I don't know whether it happened during a snowstorm, but during my weather reading today, I did encounter a snippet about a couple of "white" tornadoes in Utah that involved snow which provided the white funnel when they touched down... Dec 2, 1970 and March 29, 1982.

Now there's weather you don't even read about in the Bible, lol.

I did find a pages of images which are funnel clouds and a snow event... http://www.tornadoit.org/lefoto26.htm

posted by prairieson on Jan 31, 2011 at 12:35:28 am     #  

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/cle/

posted by Linecrosser on Jan 31, 2011 at 01:02:10 am     #  

24 bags of ramen soup, case of beverage, kerosene in case the electricity fails...bring on 2 feet of snow!

posted by 6th_Floor on Jan 31, 2011 at 01:33:41 am     #  

Get to the churches and pray, the end is coming.

posted by hockeyfan on Jan 31, 2011 at 02:56:35 am     #  

Ugh. Ice storm. Power loss possibility. Round up the flashlights, check the batteries...

posted by McCaskey on Jan 31, 2011 at 06:15:31 am     #  

Batteries - Check

Battery Operated Weather Radio - Check

Chow for the animals, including us - Check

Flashlights - Check

Gasoline Powered Emergency Generator - Started and run for a minute, pulled from storage into the garage for easy roll out to the outdoors - Check

House Electrical Panel Switch fo generator checked - Check

Gasoline - 15 gallons stored outside but in easy reach - Check

Scrabble Board - Check

Booze - Check

Just hope we have enough gasoline for the generator to outlast any power outage.

Let it happen, sigh.

posted by holland on Jan 31, 2011 at 08:17:17 am     #  

Wednesday is Groundhog day. Supposedly if he sees his shadow we get an early spring. Sounds like he definitely is NOT going to see his shadow.....but it sure don't sound like early spring. :P

posted by JeepMaker on Jan 31, 2011 at 08:55:37 am     #  

My place is all electric, i hope like hell we do not lose power.

posted by tm2 on Jan 31, 2011 at 09:00:41 am     #   1 person liked this

Other way around, Jeep... shadow = 6 more weeks of winter, no shadow = early spring.

posted by prairieson on Jan 31, 2011 at 09:03:10 am     #  

Isn't it 6 more weeks of winter or its only 6 weeks till spring?

posted by Linecrosser on Jan 31, 2011 at 09:22:10 am     #  

That's the way I thought it was for years, but not according to Phil.

posted by prairieson on Jan 31, 2011 at 09:24:12 am     #  

Holland, when I used a petrol powered backup electrical generator, I made sure I also had a siphon to get fuel out of the car's tank. ~15 additional gallons can be stored per car.

posted by bobo on Jan 31, 2011 at 09:33:04 am     #  

I don't believe it. No way we're getting 18+ inches of snow. This morning, the TV weather folks were all saying 6 to 12, and I'll bet it's closer to 6.

posted by Anniecski on Jan 31, 2011 at 09:51:48 am     #  

amazing how it changes. Channel 13 yesterday morning was saying 10-18". Now down to 6-12", guess I'll be working on Wednesday. Having hump day off this week was sounding pretty good.

If we only get around 5" , I will never listen to local TV psychics again

posted by Hoops on Jan 31, 2011 at 10:43:04 am     #  

I think they are thinking a lot of that precipitation is going to be be freezing rain, here is the NWS forecast for Erie MI, which is like 5 miles north of the border.
Today: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 20. Wind chill values as low as zero. East northeast wind between 11 and 14 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Tonight: Snow, mainly after midnight. Steady temperature around 19. East northeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Tuesday: Snow likely, mainly after 4pm. Cloudy, with a high near 24. Northeast wind between 13 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Tuesday Night: Snow before 1am, then snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain and sleet. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow. Low around 18. Blustery, with a northeast wind between 20 and 24 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.

Wednesday: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow. High near 22. Blustery, with a north northwest wind 22 to 25 mph decreasing to between 14 and 17 mph. Winds could gust as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Wednesday Night: Widespread blowing snow. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 5.

posted by Linecrosser on Jan 31, 2011 at 11:00:04 am     #  

Here is for he Point Place region of toledo, notice the miniscule new amounts for wednesday.

This Afternoon: Mostly cloudy, with a high near 19. East wind around 15 mph.

Tonight: Snow after 1am. Low around 15. Wind chill values as low as zero. East wind around 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Tuesday: Snow. High near 22. Wind chill values as low as zero. Blustery, with a northeast wind between 16 and 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Tuesday Night: Snow. Low around 18. Wind chill values as low as -2. Windy, with a east wind between 22 and 32 mph, with gusts as high as 43 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Wednesday: Snow, freezing rain, and sleet, becoming all snow after 1pm. High near 24. Windy, with a north wind 28 to 31 mph decreasing to between 13 and 16 mph. Winds could gust as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Wednesday Night: Snow likely, mainly before 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 1. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

posted by Linecrosser on Jan 31, 2011 at 11:06:31 am     #  

Here are this morning's model runs:

GFS - http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=IWX

NAM - http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=IWX

posted by JustaSooner on Jan 31, 2011 at 12:30:09 pm     #   1 person liked this

Thanks, JustASooner: you always have some awesome weather links and insights. Interesting that both of your models are predicting snow for Toledo in the 18-inch range, while local forecasters this morning were touting lower numbers.

Other national weather organizations are also calling for the higher snowfall count, making me curious as to whether the local or national weather wonks will be closer to the actual measured snowfall.

posted by historymike on Jan 31, 2011 at 01:00:52 pm     #  

Your welcome. Sorry I've been absent during most of this run up. We are looking to get a good dumping of snow here in the Southern Plains so I've been focused on that first. :)

The models have really been bouncing around the last few days, but they are coming together pretty closely. I think what you are seeing with the local guys is either playing it very conservative, inexperience, or just overwhelmed on how to process the information. Down here, we are use to "end of the world" weather every spring (and winter it seems like now)...so they tend to open up being more technical and sharing the "doomsday" scenarios.

posted by JustaSooner on Jan 31, 2011 at 01:15:40 pm     #   1 person liked this

I keep seeing NWO in the middle of the same band of heavy snow as Chicago and Detroit. Granted, Chicago is supposed to get a few inches of lake effect snow from eastern winds ahead of the main system, but I think we will be lucky to wind up with less than a foot.

Unless, of course, the system takes a more northerly turn, in which case the snowfall counts will drop and we get coated with an inch or more of ice (not good). Blizzard Bill last night said it best: "I'd rather have a foot of snow than an inch of ice," given the deleterious effects of ice on power lines.

posted by historymike on Jan 31, 2011 at 01:28:28 pm     #  

I detest ice storms. We have large oak trees on our property, any ice-coated limb from which could fall and wreak havoc on house and car. Plus power loss. Give me two feet of wind-drive snow than ice anyday, anytime.

posted by McCaskey on Jan 31, 2011 at 01:38:37 pm     #  

AS HM said, Sooner, you've got great info. Keep posting updates when possible, please and thank you.

posted by McCaskey on Jan 31, 2011 at 01:44:17 pm     #  

From Holland: Gasoline Powered Emergency Generator - Started and run for a minute, pulled from storage into the garage for easy roll out to the outdoors - Check

Say Holland, are you a gun owner? I seem to remember you as being pro-gun control.

From McCaskey: I detest ice storms.

That's because you're an old fuddy-duddy. Get out and live a little. I'll bet you can still Charleston with the best of 'em!

My sincere thanks to JustaSooner for the weather maps. Please keep 'em coming!

Me, I've still got to get over to the liquor store... and I could use a new generator. I think I'll stay inside and practice lying around in preparation for my retirement. And I could use the time to think up a few new McCaskey comments.

posted by madjack on Jan 31, 2011 at 02:20:46 pm     #  

As of Monday afternoon, AccuWeather's forecast for Toledo :

  • Tonight: Cold with 1-3 inches of snow
  • Tuesday: Cloudy, breezy and cold with snow, accumulating an additional 1-2 inches. Winds NE at 15 mph with Gusts: 27 mph
  • Tuesday night: Heavy snow and sleet late, accumulating an additional 8-12 inches; otherwise, evening snow, cold. Winds ENE at 18 mph with Gusts: 26 mph
  • Wednesday: Cloudy and breezy with snow tapering off, accumulating an additional 2-4 inches - winds NW at 14 mph with Gusts: 25 mph
  • Total snowfall range of 12 to 21 inches.


National Weather Service forecast for Toledo as of 3:21 p.m. today:

  • Tonight...Snow developing. Snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. Lows around 19. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.
  • Tuesday...Snow. Additional snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Highs in the lower 20s. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.
  • Tuesday Night...Snow. Total snow accumulation of 12 to 18 inches. Very windy with lows around 20. Temperature rising into the mid 20s after midnight. Northeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.
  • Wednesday...Snow and sleet in the morning...then snow. Very windy with highs in the upper 20s. Temperature falling into the lower 20s in the afternoon. Northeast winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph... Becoming north 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.
  • Wednesday Night...Snow likely...mainly in the evening. Much colder with lows 1 below to 5 above zero. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent. Wind chill values as low as 15 below.


This afternoon, our Winter Storm Watch was upgraded to a warning.

From the NWS ...

Statement as of 2:54 PM EST on January 31, 2011

The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a Winter
Storm Warning for heavy snow... which is in effect from 10 PM this
evening to 7 PM EST Wednesday. The Winter Storm Watch is no longer
in effect.

Snow will develop this evening and continue through the night
ahead of a warm front. Snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches can be
expected overnight tonight.

The snow will continue during the day Tuesday but will diminish in
intensity as the first wave of snow moves east of the area. The
second wave of moderate to heavy snow associated with a storm
system will start to spread into the area Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday night.

Total storm accumulations of 12 to 16 inches is expected with this
winter storm by Wednesday morning.

Winds could be gusty at 25 to 30 mph especially Tuesday afternoon
into Wednesday morning from the northwest causing significant blowing
and drifting of snow and low visibilities. Near blizzard conditions
are possible especially near Lake Erie.

The storm system will move east of the area Wednesday afternoon
changing any mixed precipitation over to all snow. The snow will
gradually taper off to light snow toward evening on Wednesday.

posted by jr on Jan 31, 2011 at 03:58:41 pm     #  

This morning's forecast downgraded the predicted snowfall amounts for the Toledo area, but this afternoon's NWS forecast discussion has upgraded the total snowfall amounts to 12 to 16 inches. Near blizzard conditions may occur along the lake shore.

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
341 pm est mon jan 31 2011

.synopsis...
a warm front will move north toward the area tonight. a strong
low pressure system will move northeast along the warm front
through wednesday. the storm system will move east of the area
wednesday into wednesday night.

&&

.near term /until 6 am tuesday morning/...
the mess begins tonight. latest radar indicates an active area of
precipitation developing over illinois and about to move into
indiana in the next few hours. this activity will move east
northeast this evening and begin to spread snow and possibly some
sleet into the forecast area during the night.

the warm front will continue to lift north as well during the
night and this is where this first wave of snow will occur. good
overrunning precipitation can be expected ahead of the warm
frontal boundary overnight. snow accumulations of generally 2 to 4
inches can be expected across the area tonight.

temperatures are not expected to be as cold as last night due to
the cloud cover and precipitation moving into the region.

&&

.short term /6 am tuesday morning through wednesday night/...
so far the consensus is to continue leaning in the direction of
the gfs model solution. the nam appears to be colder and if it
holds true then drastic changes will be needed in the direction of
more snow across the forecast area.

the gfs came in a bit stronger and a similar track to the last
several runs. due to the the strength of the storm...there is a
good bet that warm air will be entrained into the system while
tapping the cold air to the north.

the precipitation will be on going through the day tuesday but is
expected to be some what light as the first wave of snow moves
east of the area and the heavier precipitation moves northeast
into the area during the afternoon.

the problem that turns this forecast into a meteorological mess is
how much warm air will be entrained into the storm system. warm
air is expected to lift north into the eastern half of the
forecast area tuesday night into wednesday morning. this will
cause snow to become mixed with sleet and freezing rain and then
change over to all rain in the southeast areas for a period of
time. accumulations of snow will be fairly heavy near the lake
shore but much lighter away from the lake.

the exceptions in this case will be the toledo to findlay areas that will get hit the hardest with the heavy snow. very little in the way of mixing will take place in the precipitation over that area and we are expecting any where from 12 to 16 inches of snow to fall through the duration of the storm.

erie will experience
nearly the same snowfall amounts as well because we dont expect
the freezing rain to linger too long in that area if it even develops.

winds are expected to increase to 20 to 30 mph near lake erie and this will pose a significant problem for the toledo to findlay area and erie pennsylvania area causing significant blowing and drifting of the snow. near blizzard conditions can be expected as gradient from the storm system really cranks up the winds off the lake.

the low is expected to move east across the area wednesday and
shift all of the precipitation eventually over to all snow. the
strong cold air advection expected to follow the storm system will
cause temperatures to plummet during the day wednesday. the wrap
around snow may tap into lake erie as there are several cracks
over the middle basin. this could help to enhance snowfall amounts
on wednesday.

the snow tapers off from west to east wednesday night as the storm
moves east of the area.

temperatures will have a sharp contrast from west to east through
this period due to the warm air advection expected ahead of the
storm. areas in the northwest and around erie pennsylvania will be
lucky to rise above the 20s while lower to middle 30s can be
expected by wednesday morning in the southeast.

posted by jr on Jan 31, 2011 at 04:32:19 pm     #  

awwwwwwwsome

posted by toledolen_ on Jan 31, 2011 at 04:40:57 pm     #  

That 3:21 p.m. update sounds like some serious s*hit; at least we'd be spared most of the ice if accurate...

posted by McCaskey on Jan 31, 2011 at 05:29:55 pm     #  

Here is the 18Z NAM run's snowfall totals.

http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=IWX

posted by JustaSooner on Jan 31, 2011 at 05:40:34 pm     #  

Ice no good.

posted by barfly on Jan 31, 2011 at 05:51:00 pm     #  

Another NWS statement for northwest Ohio

Statement as of 4:18 PM EST on January 31, 2011

... Winter Storm Warning in effect from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM
EST Wednesday...

The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued a Winter
Storm Warning for heavy snow... which is in effect from 10 PM this
evening to 7 PM EST Wednesday. The Winter Storm Watch is no longer
in effect.

Snow will develop this evening and continue through the night
ahead of a warm front. Snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches can be
expected overnight tonight.

The snow will continue during the day Tuesday but will diminish in
intensity as the first wave of snow moves east of the area. The
second wave of moderate to heavy snow associated with a storm
system will start to spread into the area Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday night.

Total storm accumulations of 12 to 16 inches is expected with this
winter storm near the Toledo area while areas to the south in
Marion and Morrow counties can expect 6 to 9 inches by Wednesday
morning.

Winds could be gusty at 25 to 30 mph especially Tuesday afternoon
into Wednesday morning from the northeast causing significant
blowing and drifting of snow and low visibilities. Near blizzard
conditions are possible especially near Lake Erie.

The storm system will move east of the area Wednesday afternoon
changing any mixed precipitation over to all snow. The snow will
gradually taper off to light snow toward evening on Wednesday.

posted by jr on Jan 31, 2011 at 06:06:30 pm     #  

So, I have an automatic nat gas backup generator. Last week the warning lights on the transfer switch were blinking. Looked at it yesterday and could not figure out what was wrong. I called Amen's engines out of rudolph and they came up to pburg today and got me up and running! yay! bring on the storm!! Thanks so much to Joe at Amen's!

posted by MattL on Jan 31, 2011 at 06:16:25 pm     #  

Watches, warnings, and advisories indicated by the severe weather map at Wunderground.com.


And a nifty, dramatic graphic by the Weather Channel.

posted by jr on Jan 31, 2011 at 06:16:28 pm     #  

The local forecasters have started upping their estimates of snow totals; Stan Stacheck is in the double digits now, calling for 2-4 inches tonight and as much as ten inches in the second (heavier) wave of the storm. The national projections seems to be falling in the 12-18 inches range for total accumulation, though I have seen a few two-day projections topping 20 inches.

posted by historymike on Jan 31, 2011 at 06:34:28 pm     #  

Just stopped at Kroger's (Jan 31st about 7:30 pm)...basically totally empty milk coolers....

Guess people are planning not to be able to get out for a week or two...

We'll see....if worst comes to worst, I will just convert to cannibalism...

posted by frigus_veritas on Jan 31, 2011 at 07:57:29 pm     #   1 person liked this

18Z GFS local view is updated now: http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays2.php3?STATIONID=IWX

posted by JustaSooner on Jan 31, 2011 at 08:00:13 pm     #  

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd0057.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0057
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 PM CST MON JAN 31 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN INDIANA...NERN AND CNTRL OHIO

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 010056Z - 010600Z

MIXED WINTER PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY FALLING OVER MUCH OF CNTRL AND
NRN INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK E/NE INTO OHIO THIS EVENING.
FREEZING RAIN WITH SLEET AT TIMES IS EXPECTED ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR FROM INDIANAPOLIS TO COLUMBUS THEN NEWD TOWARD MANSFIELD
AND CANTON BY 03Z-06Z. FURTHER SOUTH OF I-70 AND TOWARD THE OHIO
RIVER...PRECIPITATION WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE MCD AREA FROM NEAR FORT WAYNE TO FINDLAY AND
TOLEDO...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED WITH RATES
APPROACHING ONE INCH PER HOUR THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z.

ALL OF THIS IS RELATED TO REGION OF WAA/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN
VICINITY OF 292K-295K LAYER AND 850 MB FRONTOGENETIC BAND NOW
LOCATED ACROSS CNTRL INDIANA. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MID
LEVEL JET AROUND 40 KT AND VORTICITY MAX ALIGN TO ENHANCE DEEP LAYER
LIFT AND MAINTAIN/STRENGTHEN 850-700 MB FRONTOGENETIC BAND. IT
SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY NOTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS COULD LEAD TO SOME BRIEF
PERIODS OF CONVECTIVE BANDS WHERE RATES WOULD EXCEED THOSE MENTIONED
ABOVE.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WARM NOSE OF 3-6 C ACROSS MUCH OF
W-CNTRL AND CNTRL OHIO TONIGHT...ALLOWING PRECIPITATION TO FULLY
MELT BEFORE REACHING THE NEAR SFC FREEZING LAYER. FURTHER N...THERE
MAY BE A TRANSITION ZONE WHERE SLEET MIXES WITH FREEZING RAIN AND/OR
SNOW BEFORE PROFILES BECOME FAVORABLE FOR DENDRITES TO REMAIN FROZEN
AND FALL AS SNOW ACROSS NERN INDIANA AND NWRN OHIO.

posted by JustaSooner on Jan 31, 2011 at 08:25:51 pm     #  

Meijer in Maumee was busy. Bread shelves 99% empty at 7pm. Milk all gone except for the soy and dairy-free stuff. Apparently, there was a run on ground beef, too, for whatever reason. It was a little chaotic with people scrambling to stock up.

posted by mixman on Jan 31, 2011 at 08:26:24 pm     #  

"convective bands"

wouldn't that be thundersnow?

posted by anonymouscoward on Jan 31, 2011 at 08:37:10 pm     #  

Walmart in Holland...HOLY SHIT! Candles are almost cleared out, bread gone, milk gone...yea - people are stocking up.

posted by OhioKimono on Jan 31, 2011 at 08:38:00 pm     #   2 people liked this

Lol they will throw out the broken candles from the drawer next year and the stale bread and spoiled milk next monday.

posted by Linecrosser on Jan 31, 2011 at 08:40:30 pm     #  

Oh anyone see any price gouging yet?

posted by Linecrosser on Jan 31, 2011 at 08:41:21 pm     #  

Nope.

posted by OhioKimono on Jan 31, 2011 at 08:51:44 pm     #  

What is it with the bread? The Kroger at Sylvania and King was almost cleared out too. I didn't realize that bread was such a must-have storm prep item!

posted by mom2 on Jan 31, 2011 at 08:57:40 pm     #  

Bread = sammiches = great food to make without electric and goes nice with beer :D

posted by OhioKimono on Jan 31, 2011 at 08:58:39 pm     #   2 people liked this

anonymouscoward - yes it would be thundersnow.

posted by JustaSooner on Jan 31, 2011 at 09:07:23 pm     #  

I was very sad to see that Woodville Surplus did not have any MREs.

:(

posted by anonymouscoward on Jan 31, 2011 at 09:31:14 pm     #  

MRE's ick, they are ok in a bad pinch but i wouldn't go out of my way to eat them.

posted by Linecrosser on Jan 31, 2011 at 09:38:15 pm     #  

bobo - Yup, We filled up the gas tanks of both cars as extra petrol. Even have a battery operated siphon.

madjack - What the heck? What does a gun have to do with any of this? It certainly wont keep the furnace going or my tropical aquarium from becoming a dead fish cesspool. I'm packing heat allright - the practical kind.

posted by holland on Jan 31, 2011 at 09:49:05 pm     #  

Jack's gonna drink Bushmill's and fire at the front of snowplows...

posted by McCaskey on Jan 31, 2011 at 10:20:21 pm     #  

lol, not sure I've seen this much stockpiling since Y2K...

posted by McCaskey on Jan 31, 2011 at 10:22:02 pm     #  

Meijers in P-burg was pretty busy this morning also. I Spent about 300 bucks on groceries, but it was my weekly shopping trip for us since there are three adults and 5 kids in the house. The Ground beef was non-existent, milk was fine, and so was pretty much everything else.

posted by lfrost2125 on Jan 31, 2011 at 11:30:04 pm     #  

Always remember that a true weather-emergency kits contains a loaded pistol, recently cleaned and ready to grab, cock and fire.

posted by GuestZero on Jan 31, 2011 at 11:41:08 pm     #  

I was very sad to see that Woodville Surplus did not have any MREs

You wouldn't say that if you ever had to eat any. Talk about taking your life in your hands...

Jack's gonna drink Bushmill's and fire at the front of snowplows...

I am not!

I've got a bottle of Johnny Walker Black that's been sitting around, waiting for a special occasion.

What does a gun have to do with any of this?

How else are you going to keep the looters from stealing your generator? Ask them nicely? Oh, pretty please Mister Looter, don't take my generator. It's all I've got!

Yeah, I noted the stockpiling too. Kroger's over by Flower Hospital had a full parking lot at 5:00 this afternoon. I didn't even bother going in. Anderson's over on Talmadge wasn't crowded, so I picked up the ingredients for a big pot of chili con carne and a nice beef roast for the slow cooker. I also got a case of bottled water at a reasonable price.

Our home has two fireplaces, and I've got about a cord and a half of wood. I think I'll start a fire in each fireplace tomorrow, just to make sure I remember how much fun it is to get damp wood to start.

Anderson's wasn't running low on anything except maybe bread, but the whole 'stock up while you can' meme has infected all of Sylvania and part of Toledo. Just wait until the snow really starts to fall, and the crazy people decide they are all going to pile into the family SUV, throw it into four wheel drive and ride the storm out at Uncle Ed and Aunt Sally's place in Perrysburg. If they don't get t-boned at an intersection, they'll get permanently stuck in the third snowdrift they think they can 'four wheel drive' their way through. These are the same people that will raise the most hell about the government not doing enough to rescue their worthless butts during a snow emergency. Idiots.

posted by madjack on Jan 31, 2011 at 11:44:09 pm     #  

Should have bought supermarket (Kroger, Meijer, etc.) stock 2 days ago. Seems like they're gonna have an excellent quarter!

posted by oldhometown on Jan 31, 2011 at 11:56:09 pm     #  

Early Monday morning, I finished making own naturally-leavened sourdough bread. My run on the grocery store on Monday was to buy a little bottle of English Double Devon Cream. We still have plenty of my wife's homemade jams and butters that she canned last summer. So I'm set. Not for a snowstorm. Anytime.

My main preparation for the snowstorm is clearing off a camera card.

At 11:50 p.m., I noticed that it's snowing and blowing outside. I'm not sure when the snow began falling, but I think it was within the hour. This is the first part of the snow event that is supposed to dump two or three inches over the next 12 hours.

posted by jr on Jan 31, 2011 at 11:59:19 pm     #  

For FSM's sake, madjack, how is anyone gonna go looting if the roads are complete crap and there's 3-foot high drifts everywhere? I mean, sure, The Incredible Hulk could come down your street, clean-and-jerk your generator, and carry it off, but your gun isn't gonna stop him.

And then we have GZ as well.

I can't wait for your guns to go off while cleaning, and then you end up bleeding to death because the OMG OBAMACARE SOCIALISM ambulance provided by your OMG TAXED TO DEATH dollars can't get down your pothole-ridden unplowed street because they don't have enough plows or crews. Then your heirs sue all and sundry for failing to save your sorry lives.

Having a gun is fine, but the more you wave it around and play with it, the more likely it is to go off, you know.

posted by anonymouscoward on Jan 31, 2011 at 11:59:58 pm     #  

how is anyone gonna go looting if the roads are complete crap and there's 3-foot high drifts everywhere?

Well... You know AC, that's just the kind of comment I'd expect from you.

posted by madjack on Feb 01, 2011 at 12:04:42 am     #  

National Weather Service forecast for Toledo issued at 9:28 p.m. EST, Mon, Jan 31, 2011:

Overnight... Snow. Snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. Lows around 16. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.

Tuesday... Brisk with occasional light snow. Additional snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches. Highs in the lower 20s. Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.

Tuesday Night... Windy with snow...heavy at times. Blowing and drifting snow. Additional snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches. Very windy with lows around 20. Temperature rising into the mid 20s after midnight. Northeast winds 25 to 35 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.

Wednesday... Windy with snow...tapering to flurries. Highs in the upper 20s. Temperatures falling into the lower 20s in the afternoon. Northeast winds 25 to 35 mph becoming north 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.


NWS statement for Toledo issued at 10:26 p.m. EST on Mon, Jan 31, 2011

A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until 7 PM Wednesday for Northwest Ohio.

Snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches can be expected overnight. The snow is due to an approaching a warm front.

The snow will become light and intermittent during the day Tuesday as the first wave of precipitation moves east. An inch... perhaps two inches... of additional snow is possible during the day Tuesday.

Snow will redevelop late Tuesday afternoon or early Tuesday evening. Winds will increase and the snow will likely be heavy at times. An additional 6 to 12 inches of snow is possible Tuesday night with significant blowing and drifting snow.

The snow will taper off on Wednesday. Storm total snowfall of 12 to 18 inches can be expected by Wednesday afternoon. Blowing and drifting snow is expected to continue on Wednesday.

posted by jr on Feb 01, 2011 at 12:10:19 am     #  

Cleveland NWS forecast discussion late Monday night.

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
1149 pm est mon jan 31 2011

.synopsis...
a warm front will move north toward the area tonight. a strong
low pressure system will move northeast along the warm front
crossing northern ohio and northwest pennsylvania wednesday
morning.

&&

.near term /until 6 am tuesday morning/...
made some adjustments to the forecast...bringing in the snow
relatively quickly this evening...then allowing for sleet and
freezing rain...mainly south of route 30. i think the first
round of this storm will essentially be over tuesday morning so i
have tried to concentrate the precipitation overnight...then
becoming lighter and probably intermittent from west to east
tuesday morning. the tonight and tuesday forecast snow amounts
have changed somewhat from the previous forecast but the overall
amount is about the same... generally 2-5 inches of snow across the
north by mid morning tuesday. 1 to 3 inches south with some
icing...mainly south of route 30. the precipitation developing on
radar across indiana and the lower ohio valley has a somewhat
convective look to it (some bright reflectivity because of the
sleet) and there will likely be some heavier bursts of snow and
sleet overnight. nice temperature gradient this evening with 14f
at toledo and 30f at columbus. temperatures will be nearly steady
or rise a couple of degrees overnight.

note about the tuesday night forecast...i opted to remove the "storm
total snow" phrase from all the zone groups except northwest ohio.
the other areas will almost certainly mix with/change to freezing
rain and sleet. i think the ice could end up being the primary
storm problem tuesday night with the additional snow not as
significant except across northwest ohio and perhaps northwest
pennsylvania where additional significant snow is a better bet.

--------

The rest of the discussion matches what was issued on Monday afternoon. Here are the parts of the statement that mention the Toledo area:

the exceptions in this case will be the toledo to findlay areas that will get hit the hardest with the heavy snow. very little in the way of mixing will take place in the precipitation over that area and we are expecting any where from 12 to 16 inches of snow to fall through the duration of the storm.

winds are expected to increase to 20 to 30 mph near lake erie and this will pose a significant problem for the toledo to findlay area and erie pennsylvania area causing significant blowing and drifting of the snow. near blizzard conditions can be expected as gradient from the storm system really cranks up the winds off the lake.

posted by jr on Feb 01, 2011 at 12:22:32 am     #  

I know I may not be saying this in a couple of days, but it's actually quite beautiful outside right now.

posted by toledolen_ on Feb 01, 2011 at 12:47:21 am     #   2 people liked this

When shoveling at 7:30 a.m., it seemed that less than two inches of snow had fallen. We might get another inch of snow during the day today.

National Weather Service statement as of 4:28 AM EST on February 01, 2011

A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until 7 PM EST
Wednesday.

Through early afternoon just some areas of light snow and freezing
drizzle will occur. As the second wave starts by late this afternoon
the snow will begin again. Snow accumulation during the daylight
hours of Tuesday will be 1 to locally 3 inches.

An additional 6 to 10 inches of snow will occur over much of the
area overnight. Southern Wood County and eastern Sandusky County
may have less snow. Winds will increase and the snow will likely
be heavy at times. Significant blowing and drifting snow will
occur with near blizzard conditions. Some freezing rain and sleet
may also occur.

The snow will taper off on Wednesday. Storm total snowfall of
12 to 18 inches can be expected by Wednesday afternoon. Blowing
and drifting snow is expected to continue on Wednesday.

posted by jr on Feb 01, 2011 at 08:36:09 am     #  

My emphasis added to the following NWS statement:

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
638 am est tue feb 1 2011

.synopsis...
a warm front was moving toward the area today. a strong low
pressure system will move northeast along the warm front crossing
northern ohio and northwest pennsylvania wednesday morning. high
pressure will begin to build into the ohio valley by friday.

&&

.near term /until 6 pm this evening/...
the first wave of precipitation is moving through and we will have a
lull for a good portion of the day and then the precipitation will
start up in the northwest by mid to late afternoon. going with the
gfs model. for today keeping snow in the extreme north with mainly a
mix south. some concern that the gfs is trying to cool the 850 mb
temperature today.

&&

.short term /6 pm this evening through wednesday night/... as the low moves up the precipitation will start in earnest this evening. lucas...ottawa and much of wood and western sandusky county will have mainly snow. at this time it looks like the blizzard conditions will not last three hours across the entire area except close to lake erie. so at this time will not upgrade to a blizzard warning. this will have to be monitored... it will be close. also that area has a threat to get a little freezing rain and sleet and that could put a little crust on the snow.

elsewhere expecting mainly freezing rain or sleet and depending
which is predominant a significant accumulation. as the low moves up
temperatures will warm in the east and turn to rain. this probably
won`t happen until have a significant amount of sleet and freezing
rain occurs. the winds will start increasing overnight and with a
significant accumulation of ice on trees and power lines this could
cause problems.

for wednesday as the low moves away the mix will change back to
snow. lake enhanced snow showers will occur wednesday night. with
the lake ice covered that may decrease the snow amounts.

posted by jr on Feb 01, 2011 at 08:46:27 am     #  

Goes without saying, of course, but just a friendly reminder: If any of us have older neighbors, it would be nice to offer to get them some groceries, maybe even bring over a pot of soup, or just generally check in on them after the snow starts.

Oh, and folks? Please for the love of God, bring your pets in...

posted by luvtoledo on Feb 01, 2011 at 09:03:24 am     #   3 people liked this

The roads were pretty good on my way in today. Still trying to see what all the fuss is about...

posted by Anniecski on Feb 01, 2011 at 09:05:58 am     #  

It's a deadzone downtown today. Looks like a lot of people took off today, in anticipation for tomorrow.

posted by upso on Feb 01, 2011 at 09:36:19 am     #  

Anniecski, I can't predict the weather, but I can tell you that on the interlibrary loan listserv I'm on for work, there are all kinds of messages from libraries that are closing due to inclement weather. That's how we're tracking the storm. :)

posted by valbee on Feb 01, 2011 at 09:36:31 am     #  

"Still trying to see what all the fuss is about..."

I think you're a day early because no "fuss" was expected today. It has always been that way in the forecast. Thus far, nothing has abruptly changed in the forecast, which is why I'm surprised TPS closed today.

The first part of the snow event was expected during Monday night and then little to nothing for most of Tuesday, until the next part arrived late in the afternoon or early evening on Tuesday.

For the Monday night snowfall, AccuWeather predicted 1 to 3 inches of snow and the National Weather Service predicted 2 to 4 inches. The Toledo area received 1.5 to 2.0 inches of fluffy snow that was easily blown around in the wide-open spaces outside Toledo.

The forecast for the Toledo area tonight:

AccuWeather - Snow, with blizzard conditions developing, accumulating an additional 8-12 inches. Low of 16. Winds NE at 23 mph with gusts to 61 mph.

National Weather Service - Snow. A chance of freezing rain and sleet. Blowing and drifting snow with near blizzard conditions. Additional snow and sleet accumulation of 6 to 10 inches. Windy with lows in the mid 20s. Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

The NWS statement earlier this morning indicated that blizzard conditions may occur for a while tonight in the Toledo area, but those conditions are not expected to last long enough to cause a Blizzard Warning to be issued.

The forecast for the Toledo area for Wednesday:

AccuWeather - Cloudy, breezy and cold with snow tapering off, accumulating an additional 1-3 inches. High of 25. Winds NNW at 14 mph with gusts to 26 mph.

National Weather Service - Blowing snow in the morning. Snow with a chance of freezing rain in the morning...then snow showers in the afternoon. Additional snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. Ice accumulation around a trace. Brisk with highs in the upper 20s early with the temperature falling to around 20 in the afternoon. North winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.

posted by jr on Feb 01, 2011 at 10:17:59 am     #  

"It's a deadzone downtown today. Looks like a lot of people took off today, in anticipation for tomorrow."

You know, it must be nice to be able to call off going to your job in anticipation of when things get worse. Not directed at you Upso or your observation, which I'm sure is accurate. It's pretty clear most people in the Toledo metropolitan area should be able to get to their jobs today. Tomorrow may be different...

posted by McCaskey on Feb 01, 2011 at 11:10:04 am     #  

The Weather Channel (cable version) just had us in the 18"-24" total accumulation band, and specifically mentioned Toledo and Detroit as "up to two feet of snow." Not sure how accurate their predictions are, or if this was just one of the on-air reporters throwing in a few cities for geographic descriptive value.

posted by historymike on Feb 01, 2011 at 11:11:01 am     #   1 person liked this

McCaskey, it sure would be nice! :)
The roads are plowed, but downtown is a ghost town.

posted by upso on Feb 01, 2011 at 11:21:07 am     #  

Apparently the expressways are bad. I just heard I75 is shut down both ways near 280 also an accident near Salisbury exit.

posted by Molsonator on Feb 01, 2011 at 11:34:58 am     #   1 person liked this

I made it in to work with no problems this morning. Tomorrow may be a different story, but there's no way I could justify taking today off.

posted by valbee on Feb 01, 2011 at 11:39:49 am     #   1 person liked this

A lot of those not at work downtown today are not here at their employer's requests, not personal choice. Regardless of what a lot of people think, some employers are concerned about travel safety of their employees. The right person in the hospital for a week or two can be devastating for some employers. Those who are salaried know they will be making it up in one way or another. Others probably took vacation days to spend it with their kids.

posted by brainswell on Feb 01, 2011 at 11:40:24 am     #   1 person liked this

I just checked the national weather radar loop on intellicast.com The way the storm is tracking right now we seem to be in the path of the ice storm. The storm direction is more northerly than north easterly which puts us in the ice bulls eye. I'm no meterologist, not even a wannabe. I'm hoping that something is going to hook this track and keep the ice storm south. Maybe the cold front pushing south from Canada? My apologies to those folks who will get the ice storm. I certainly don't wish NW Ohio an easier time at your expense.

posted by holland on Feb 01, 2011 at 12:02:20 pm     #  

I got sick to my tummy reading brainswell's post; I'm calling off today as well. Just kidding, brainswell...

posted by McCaskey on Feb 01, 2011 at 12:42:36 pm     #  

"Regardless of what a lot of people think, some employers are concerned about travel safety of their employees."

Apparently, not the dentist I go to. I still had my appointment this morning.

While lounging at the dentist, I heard on the radio what Molsonator mentioned that I-75 was closed in both directions between I-280 and the 475 split in downtown because of black ice and numerous accidents. But that was before Noon.


NWS Public Information Statement issued at 11:17 am EST on February 1, 2011 ...

The following are snowfall reports for the storm that has been
affecting our region. Appreciation is extended to Highway
departments... cooperative observers... Skywarn spotters and media for
these reports. This summary is also available on our home Page at
weather.Gov/Cleveland

... Lucas County...
Oregon 3.0 1009 am 2/1
Toledo-pt place 3.0 830 am 2/1
Toledo Airport 2.0 700 am 2/1
Toledo 1.6 657 am 2/1


NWS forecast for the Toledo area issued at 10:19 am EST on February 1, 2011, which seems about the same as the forecast issued early this morning:

This Afternoon - Cloudy with a chance of freezing drizzle. Snow or freezing rain likely toward evening. Additional snow accumulation around an inch. Little ice accumulation. Highs in the lower 20s. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.

Tonight - Snow. A chance of freezing rain and sleet. Blowing and drifting snow with near blizzard conditions. Additional snow and sleet accumulation of 6 to 10 inches. Windy with lows in the mid 20s. Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.

Wednesday - Blowing snow in the morning. Snow with a chance of freezing rain in the morning...then snow showers in the afternoon. Additional snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. Ice accumulation around a trace. Brisk with highs in the upper 20s early with the temperature falling to around 20 in the afternoon. North winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.


My wild guess is we'll end up with around 11 inches of total snow by Wednesday evening, and that's including the snow from last night. Unless Toledo gets more freezing rain than expected, I'd say the worst of this will be the blowing snow in the farm country around Toledo. It will be windy into Thursday and turning colder. The roads in open farm country will be a joy. At least those canyon-sized drainage ditches along some fields will get filled in by the blowing snow, giving the illusion that solid ground exists along the road.

posted by jr on Feb 01, 2011 at 01:30:57 pm     #  

Looks like local weather guys with their more conservative predictions will be more accurate than the nationals...unless that line dips about 50 miles south.

posted by McCaskey on Feb 01, 2011 at 01:39:14 pm     #  

I must be living in a cave or my priorities are all messed up but I did not know that lottery tickets are a "must have" staple for impending blizzards! A friend of mine works at a convenience store in Oregon and said that last night tons of people were coming in buying their tickets, Pick 3, Pick 4, and scratch-offs for the week. Many spent $100 and up on tickets. I just had to share because I am still stunned...LOL

posted by golddustwoman on Feb 01, 2011 at 01:42:46 pm     #   1 person liked this

Goldie, they're hoping they win so they can fly someplace where there's no snow!

posted by Anniecski on Feb 01, 2011 at 02:03:39 pm     #  

Anniecski: I should have bought some too, I guess? LOL...

posted by golddustwoman on Feb 01, 2011 at 02:10:09 pm     #   1 person liked this

No surprise to me. Dedicated gamblers aren't going to let a any weather event upset their regular lottery buying habits. To them, it's the same as having enough milk in the house to last.

(Now can somebody explain why certain posters here think a gun is necessary for this or any other severe weather event? The logic of immediatly equating a bad weather event to needing protection from thieves or looters just escapes me. Perhaps I'm not psychologically embued with enough paranoia.)

posted by holland on Feb 01, 2011 at 02:12:41 pm     #  

holland: my friend said a 70 year old woman, a "regular," came in and bought her "weekly" case of beer, carton of smokes and tickets. The lady said, "Screw milk and bread. I am ready for this storm." LOL

posted by golddustwoman on Feb 01, 2011 at 02:22:45 pm     #   1 person liked this

Holland,

If the power is out some people will get desperate very quick, especially those who were unprepared for the bad weather. People with electric heat who don't have a backup plan come to mind.

Add to it the increased police response time due to the snow (or my favorite, no response to non-injury related calls), and you have a recipe that could very well turn a bad neighborhood into an arctic Lord of the Flies.

posted by brainswell on Feb 01, 2011 at 02:51:37 pm     #   1 person liked this

Brainswell -- What are they gonna do? Show up at holland's house swith a gun, saying, "Give me your heat!"? Or kick her out so they can move in?

Now, I can see going for the lottery tickets, or the beer, but geez...

posted by Anniecski on Feb 01, 2011 at 03:06:05 pm     #  

Looking at the weather maps now, looks like we're going to get 6-9 inches or less now. But might be a lot more freezing rain.

posted by INeedCoffee on Feb 01, 2011 at 03:32:59 pm     #  

I wish the city would plow the residential streets now, instead of waiting for another foot of snow on top of what's there.

posted by JeepMaker on Feb 01, 2011 at 03:38:41 pm     #  

They have no money, Jeepmaker.

posted by Molsonator on Feb 01, 2011 at 03:42:18 pm     #  

Latest NWS statement that reduces the expected snowfall amount.

Statement as of 3:15 PM EST on February 01, 2011

A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until 7 PM EST
Wednesday.

A large area of snow will move across Northwest Ohio this evening
and tonight. Temperatures will warm slowly overnight and some
sleet or freezing rain could mix with the snow at times.
Accumulations overnight will range from 4 to 8 inches with an
additional 2 to 4 inches possible on [Wednesday]. The greatest
amounts will be along the Michigan border with storm totals
dropping off to the south. A slight glazing of ice is also
possible. Northeast winds will increase overnight with gusts to 30 mph
possible. Winds will become northwest on Wednesday. Visibilities
at times will be a quarter mile or less. The snow is expected to
diminish on Wednesday afternoon.


So we'll get maybe 6 to 7 inches of snow tonight, a couple inches tomorrow, and add the two from last night, and Toledo will total around 10 inches of snow at most.

This will be similar, possibly, to the Feb 13-14, 2007 storm, which dumped around nine inches of snow in the Toledo area, and it came with a good bit of wind too. In fact for a while, a Blizzard Warning was in effect, but then that was downgraded.

Here's the Blizzard Warning statement for the Toledo area on February 13, 2007:

A major winter storm is ongoing across the region... and will continue into Wednesday morning. Heavy snow... with significant blowing and drifting snow... will continue this afternoon and tonight. Northwest winds gusting to 40 mph will cause visibilities to be reduced to less than one quarter of a mile at times this afternoon and tonight causing white out conditions. By Wednesday morning... storm total snowfall of 8 to 16 inches is possible likely making some roads impassible. A few spots may see up to 20 inches.

That was also a Tuesday night/Wednesday morning storm. Roads were messy on Wednesday morning. A lot of cancellations. But these were the road conditions in the afternoon of Feb 14, 2007:

US20-I475-SBRamp-EastUS20CarronadeLookingEastI475-SR25-CAM2

Feb 15, 2007 Toledo Blade story about that storm with the following photo and caption:

"Nearly empty downtown Toledo streets leave room for plows and front-loaders to collect huge amounts of snow for removal."

posted by jr on Feb 01, 2011 at 04:09:05 pm     #  

Below are excerpts from this afternoon's NWS forecast discussion. Emphasis added to the parts referring to northwest Ohio. In this afternoon's statements, the NWS no longer mentions the 12 to 16-inch total snowfall predictions and the near blizzard conditions.

-----

area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
255 pm est tue feb 1 2011

.near term /through tonight/...
no changes to the headlines. models now in fairly close agreement
with the track of the surface low. it appears that we will warm a
little more overnight than earlier thought.

nw ohio still expected to see the most significant snowfall but have cut accums down slightly because some freezing rain or sleet could mix with the snow later tonight. was concerned earlier about needing a blizzard warning as ne flow off of lake erie will get close to criteria. however...no longer think that is needed as any sleet or freezing rain that occurs will limit the amount of blowing and drifting.

.short term /wednesday through thursday night/...
the surface low will be overhead at daybreak tomorrow. this low
will rapidly move off to the east tomorrow. the dry slot will pass
just to the south. wrap around snow will affect the area tomorrow
with most locations seeing an inch or two of accumulation. the
precip should cut off quickly tomorrow afternoon and evening.

posted by jr on Feb 01, 2011 at 04:26:25 pm     #   1 person liked this

This thing is getting wimper by the hour.

posted by SensorG on Feb 01, 2011 at 04:38:57 pm     #  

anonymouscoward said: “ I can't wait for your guns to go off while cleaning

There's never been a documented case of an unloaded gun going off. Sometimes, however, you can mishandle one of the springs and can send it flying across the table. Maybe you flaming liberals should ban springs.

At any rate, if you don't understand the need for self-defense in time of civil emergency, then you're a lost cause. Desperation drives people to harm others. And you must ever remember that you have the right to keep and bear arms, in such cases.

posted by GuestZero on Feb 01, 2011 at 04:43:06 pm     #  

SensorG said: “ This thing is getting wimp[i]er by the hour.

Good. Losing power around here in the winter is really the worst. I can't remember the last time that it happened to me, however.

posted by GuestZero on Feb 01, 2011 at 04:45:52 pm     #  

The 3:32 p.m. National Weather Service forecast for Toledo contains more ice than earlier forecasts.

Tonight... Snow...possibly mixing with sleet or freezing rain at times. Snow and sleet accumulation of 4 to 8 inches. Ice accumulation of up to a tenth of an inch. Windy with lows in the lower 20s. Temperature rising into the mid 20s after midnight. Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.

Wednesday... Snow...mixing with sleet at times. Additional snow and sleet accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. Brisk with early highs in the mid 20s. Temperature falling into the lower 20s in the afternoon. North winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.

posted by jr on Feb 01, 2011 at 05:16:28 pm     #  

i just want to know if i have to work tomorrow! come on jr! let me know!

posted by upso on Feb 01, 2011 at 05:19:47 pm     #  

So much over-hype. These local TV stations...they hype the coming storm. Its all ratings. They hype a storm 4-5 days out...remember back on Saturday and Sunday, we were supposed to get 18+ inches of snow. This made the viewer tune into the next newscast. Ratings skyrocket. Which is more exciting? TV13 with all their hype and 5 meteorlogists or the truth?
This morning I saw an advertisement on 13 and 11 regarding promotions for their news and weather with regards to this "Storm". Hype!
We are down to 3-6 inches now...hardly a storm for these parts. Nobody likes the truth.....

posted by bolt98 on Feb 01, 2011 at 05:28:45 pm     #  

Lower snowfall totals does not equal "wimpier." Freezing rain, sleet, and ice are worse options than light fluffy snow.

posted by historymike on Feb 01, 2011 at 05:29:27 pm     #  

I just noticed this at WTOL

Blizzard Warning for some area counties, including Fulton, Henry, and Monroe counties.

NWS statement for Fulton County:

Statement as of 5:23 PM EST on February 01, 2011

The Blizzard Warning is now in effect until 7 PM EST Wednesday.

  • Timing... snow will increase in intensity through the early
    evening hours. The heaviest snowfall rates are expected tonight.
    The snow will likely be mixed with some sleet and freezing rain
    through late tonight with the greatest potential of freezing
    rain along and south of Route 24 where ice accumulation is
    possible. Snow will continue through Wednesday... gradually
    tapering in intensity during the afternoon. Northeast winds will
    increase early this evening.
  • Main impact... snowfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches are expected.
    Sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph will
    create dangerous conditions... with blizzard conditions and zero
    visibilities in blowing snow at times and significant drifting.
    Snow drifts of 4 to 8 feet will be possible in many open areas.
    In addition... some ice accumulation is possible especially
    during the evening hours.

posted by jr on Feb 01, 2011 at 05:58:34 pm     #  

"i just want to know if i have to work tomorrow! come on jr! let me know!"

In the city: a bit gnarly in the morning but tolerable in the afternoon. Put yourself on a two- to four-hour delay.

Cancellations & Delays: ... Wednesday ... upso - three-hour delay ...

It has been snowing and blowing for an hour or so.

posted by jr on Feb 01, 2011 at 06:26:57 pm     #  

I live in east side near Oregon and for the last 10 minutes I can hear the sleet slam against my dining room windows. Guessing it's sleet never heard of snow making that ping ping sound.

posted by INeedCoffee on Feb 01, 2011 at 07:03:11 pm     #  

Yeah, we noticed some sleet here in West Toledo hitting our north windows at 7:20 p.m.

posted by jr on Feb 01, 2011 at 07:25:15 pm     #  

Sleet in my Franklin Park neighborhood on top of the 1.5" or so of snow that fell since 4:30 pm. I had the snowblower out for a half hour to reduce the load tomorrow.

We had about four inches this morning, so I figure a total of about 5.5" so far.

posted by historymike on Feb 01, 2011 at 07:28:53 pm     #  

All snow here at the state line so far, strong winds from ENE gusting to about 25 so far.

posted by Linecrosser on Feb 01, 2011 at 07:54:33 pm     #  

People that are pointing out the lower snow totals, that really doesn't mean things are better. We are seeing a layer of warm air work in that is raising the chance of sleet and perhaps freezing rain. This will keep the snow totals down, but increase the ice accumulation which by all accounts is worse. The storm system is one of the more intense ones we've been in the country lately, so rating it based on localized variations really is not fair.

What we experienced here with the storm is that you can get a very tight gradient. Over a distance of just 100 miles we had places with 3-4 inches then an area of 12" or more then an area of 2 inches snow with 3 inches of sleet. Also the winds with this will make conditions very dangerous. We had areas that were low on the snow totals but winds over 40 mph still yielded drifts of nearly 2 feet or more.

So stop focusing on the exact total of precip, its going to vary over short distances, but be more concerned with the wind this storm will bring to you guys.

posted by JustaSooner on Feb 01, 2011 at 07:58:10 pm     #  

Lucas County went to Level 2 Snow Emergency. Come on Level 3!

posted by anonymouscoward on Feb 01, 2011 at 08:09:21 pm     #  

Toledo Express Airport conditions at 8:42 p.m.:

  • weather: Light Ice Pellets and Blowing Snow
  • temp: 18 F
  • winds: E-NE 26 mph, gust to 34 mph
  • pressure: 29.93 in (Falling)

posted by jr on Feb 01, 2011 at 08:52:27 pm     #  

Warnings Map at WTOL

posted by jr on Feb 01, 2011 at 09:00:35 pm     #  

it's toasty outside!

posted by toledolen_ on Feb 01, 2011 at 09:10:40 pm     #  

ODOT Winter Reporting Locations - District 2

CountyReporting LocationSnow TodaySnow DepthCrews WorkingLast Updated
FUL FULTON COUNTY GARAGE 5 " 6.5 " 8 2/1/2011 8:10:33 PM
HEN HENRY COUNTY GARAGE 4 " 8 " 7 2/1/2011 7:25:54 PM
LUC LUCAS COUNTY GARAGE 3 " 7 " 12 2/1/2011 8:13:41 PM
OTT OTTAWA COUNTY GARAGE 4 " 7 " 10 2/1/2011 8:58:58 PM
SAN SANDUSKY COUNTY GARAGE4 " 8 " 10 2/1/2011 6:34:39 PM
SEN SENECA COUNTY GARAGE 5 " 10 " 9 2/1/2011 8:46:40 PM
WIL WILLIAMS COUNTY GARAGE5 " 8 " 8 2/1/2011 8:25:12 PM
WOO NORTHWOOD OUTPOST 4 " 5 " 14 2/1/2011 8:00:33 PM
WOO WOOD COUNTY GARAGE 3 " 7 " 15 2/1/2011 6:26:53 PM

posted by jr on Feb 01, 2011 at 09:22:47 pm     #  

The 7" reported by Lucas County is the exact same amount I just measured for the two-day total. Creepy.

posted by historymike on Feb 01, 2011 at 09:25:20 pm     #  

ODOT Winter Route Conditions - Toledo area

ConditionRouteReporting LocationUpdated
Moderate Snow/Ice US-20-ALucas County Garage 2/1/2011 8:13:41 PM
Moderate Snow/Ice US-20 Lucas County Garage 2/1/2011 8:13:41 PM
Moderate Snow/Ice US-23 Lucas County Garage 2/1/2011 8:13:41 PM
Moderate Snow/Ice SR-578Lucas County Garage 2/1/2011 8:13:41 PM
Moderate Snow/Ice US-24 Lucas County Garage 2/1/2011 8:13:41 PM
Moderate Snow/Ice SR-64 Lucas County Garage 2/1/2011 8:13:41 PM
Moderate Snow/Ice SR-2 Lucas County Garage 2/1/2011 8:13:41 PM
Moderate Snow/Ice SR-51 Lucas County Garage 2/1/2011 8:13:41 PM
Moderate Snow/Ice SR-184Lucas County Garage 2/1/2011 8:13:41 PM
Moderate Snow/Ice IR-475Lucas County Garage 2/1/2011 8:13:41 PM
Moderate Snow/Ice IR-475Northwood Outpost 2/1/2011 8:00:33 PM
Moderate Snow/Ice IR-280Northwood Outpost 2/1/2011 8:00:33 PM
Moderate Snow/Ice IR-75 Northwood Outpost 2/1/2011 8:00:33 PM

posted by jr on Feb 01, 2011 at 09:35:56 pm     #  

Ohio Roads Snow Emergency Classifications

LEVEL 1 : Roadways are hazardous with blowing and drifting snow. Roads may also be icy. Motorists are urged to drive very cautiously.

LEVEL 2 : Roadways are hazardous with blowing and drifting snow. Roads may also be very icy. Only those who feel it is necessary to drive should be out on the roads. Contact your employer to see if you should report to work. Motorists should use extreme caution.

LEVEL 3 : All roadways are closed to non-emergency personnel. No one should be driving during these conditions unless it is absolutely necessary to travel or a personal emergency exists. All employees should contact their employer to see if they should report to work. Those traveling on the roads may subject themselves to arrest.


To view the state’s weather-related road closures and restrictions, visit the Ohio Department of Transportation’s traffic Web site at www.buckeyetraffic.org


Other ODOT - District 2 sites:

The traffic cameras show road conditions ranging from partly to completely snow-covered.

posted by jr on Feb 01, 2011 at 09:51:31 pm     #  

At 10:00 p.m., it's wild out. The hardest I've seen it snow yet this evening. Bands of snow moving horizontally. Gusty winds. A lot of blowing snow. Very low visibility.

posted by jr on Feb 01, 2011 at 10:07:28 pm     #  

Since my earlier post the snow (?) here is still a quasi snow/sleet. Can this be a good thing? It's not exactly freezing rain I dont see ice on things, but since it's not really snow it seems to be settling nicely so no real strong drifts (to heavy for the wind to move?). Eh hopeful wishing perhaps. Will see in the morning.

So how soon till we see "Survived Groundhog Day Blizzard 2011" shirts? ;) my candles are ready

posted by INeedCoffee on Feb 01, 2011 at 10:13:13 pm     #  

It's still snowing hard in West Toledo, but it feels like some freezing rain might be mixed in with it. No sleet. The snow has some crust on it. The sky is strangely bright right now from the lights reflecting off the precip.

posted by jr on Feb 01, 2011 at 10:26:07 pm     #  

ice ice baby

posted by anonymouscoward on Feb 01, 2011 at 10:32:55 pm     #  

I Just talked to my Cousin in Illinois in the Chicago suburbs and he said they are getting hammered right now (all snow). He said this wind is really bad and it's blowing the snow completely horizontal.

posted by lfrost2125 on Feb 01, 2011 at 10:36:05 pm     #  

Actually, it's hard to tell if it's snowing here. The snow is moving sideways to the west, but that could be snow that fell earlier, and it's now getting carried away by the strong winds.

The sky light changed dramatically at 10:38 p.m. back to a more normal darkness. It was amazingly bright for a while. Probably due to a different type of precip in the air, such as sleet.

The strongest wind gust occurred here at 10:44 p.m. I heard twigs/branches or something hitting the house. It was a wall of white passing by the south windows during that long, drawn-out wind gust. The towering, leafless oak trees are growling.

Another big wind gust at 10:55 p.m. I think we're getting freezing rain/drizzle now.

posted by jr on Feb 01, 2011 at 10:57:07 pm     #  

Precip is definitely falling here, but it's not snow now. It feels and sounds like tiny ice pellets.

Recent reports from the airports:

  • Toledo Metcalf - 10:53 p.m., Snow Freezing Fog, 19 F, Wind NE at 28 mph, Visibility: 0.50 mi.
  • Toledo Express - 10:52 p.m., Heavy Snow Freezing Fog and Windy, 18 °F, Wind Speed: E 28 G 46 MPH, Visibility: 0.50 mi.


This evening, Wunderground.com introduced a new version of their Web site.

posted by jr on Feb 01, 2011 at 11:19:29 pm     #  

11:30 p.m. radar shows a break in the precip for us.

expand and animate!

posted by jr on Feb 01, 2011 at 11:31:35 pm     #  

No precip at the moment, but the hellacious winds continue to batter our old oaks. We've heard a couple of mild thumps on the roof. The snow in the yards is peppered with twigs. I'm sooooo glad we spent the $800 to get the trees cleared of dead wood two years ago. Right now, It's strictly a hardhat area in this heavily treed neighborhood.

posted by holland on Feb 01, 2011 at 11:31:53 pm     #  

It has been pretty nasty here in western Sylvania Twp. Alternating between snow and what I presume is sleet, from the sound of it hitting the windows. Steady, gusty winds.

posted by mom2 on Feb 01, 2011 at 11:54:00 pm     #  

Excerpts from the most recent NWS forecast discussion:

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio
958 PM EST Tuesday Feb 1 2011

The wind should begin to slowly decrease across Northwest Ohio as the low passes just to the east before daybreak. I am concerned about dry air wrapping into Northwest Ohio which may limit the snow amounts but the dry air will also likely cause the lapse rates to steepen and bursts of snow and sleet should continue to redevelop overnight. We may not get the full 8 inches of snow in the forecast but should still easily make the 4 inch lower end of the forecast. Will not talk about the temperatures rising across Northwest Ohio although they will sneak up a couple of degrees.

Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through Thursday night/... the surface low will rapidly move off to the northeast on Wednesday morning. The dry slot will graze the area. Wrap around snow will affect the area tomorrow but most of the snow should be relatively light...an inch or less except 1 to 3 inches in the far north and the snowbelt. The precipitation should cut off quickly tomorrow afternoon and evening.


Translation, the bulk of the snow has fallen by 11:00 p.m. Tuesday night?? According to radar, it looks like we'll get a little more freezing rain/sleet. In the past 40 minutes or so, it seems the winds have decreased. I don't hear the big wind gusts anymore. And I don't see much blowing snow outside either, but that could be because of the sleet/drizzle a while ago. The snowiest and windiest period was between 9:00 and 11:00 p.m.

posted by jr on Feb 01, 2011 at 11:57:25 pm     #  

ODOT Winter Reporting Locations - District 2

CountyReporting LocationSnow TodaySnow DepthCrews WorkingLast Updated
FUL FULTON COUNTY GARAGE 5 " 6.5 " 8 2/1/2011 10:00:02 PM
HEN HENRY COUNTY GARAGE 5 " 8 " 7 2/1/2011 11:12:00 PM
LUC LUCAS COUNTY GARAGE 4 " 8 " 12 2/1/2011 10:56:19 PM
OTT OTTAWA COUNTY GARAGE 4 " 7 " 10 2/1/2011 8:58:58 PM
SAN SANDUSKY COUNTY GARAGE5 " 9 " 10 2/1/2011 10:46:03 PM
SEN SENECA COUNTY GARAGE 5 " 10 " 9 2/1/2011 11:23:28 PM
WIL WILLIAMS COUNTY GARAGE6 " 9 " 8 2/1/2011 11:34:33 PM
WOO NORTHWOOD OUTPOST 4 " 5 " 14 2/1/2011 11:33:47 PM
WOO WOOD COUNTY GARAGE 5 " 9 " 15 2/1/2011 11:17:25 PM

posted by jr on Feb 02, 2011 at 12:09:08 am     #  

Just ran to the corner store because I was out of milk. The roads weren't bad at all.

posted by JJFad on Feb 02, 2011 at 12:27:27 am     #  

I thought I recognized you, JJFad. Some storm, huh?

This storm is wimpy. A few inches of snow followed by a little sleet. Big deal. I was promised a real blizzard here, and all I see is mild snow.

posted by madjack on Feb 02, 2011 at 12:48:13 am     #  

I've still got my pistol ready, though. Because you never know...

posted by madjack on Feb 02, 2011 at 12:48:39 am     #  

Just woken up by the sound of freezing rain pelting my house.

Let the dogs outside to go potty - I've never seen them run back to the door so fast after their business was done.

posted by mom2 on Feb 02, 2011 at 01:28:27 am     #  

My boyfriend and I just came back from a walk around the block. It was snowing lightly when we started out, and the wind wasn't bad. The last 50 yards or so, it started sleeting hard and the wind was just whipping. And then--lightning! Did anyone else see it? It was so cool! The thunder sounded so distorted, almost warped!

I was wondering if that's what I was hearing earlier tonight. I wouldn't have known for sure if we hadn't been outside to see the lightning flash.

I'm hearing the freezing rain that mom2 mentioned now. Glad we went out, but happy to be back inside again!

posted by valbee on Feb 02, 2011 at 01:38:15 am     #  

It doesn't look like a level 3 snow emergency out there. Channel 11 keeps shoving the camera into the face of ever driver they can fine.

Funny that they keep saying that the roads aren't bad at all...

Oh well, level 3 means I'm working from home today.

posted by SensorG on Feb 02, 2011 at 07:42:54 am     #  

Glad it wasn't as bad as predicted. I don't blame the weather forecasters. I'd rather be overprepared than underprepared. Also means fewer injuries and deaths, so I'm okay with just 6-8 inches.

posted by bikerdude on Feb 02, 2011 at 08:23:21 am     #  

My problem is that they blew the forecast so bad, people might not listen next time, causing more issues.

Jerry Anderson was a complete joke last night talking about how Stan Stachak was "batting a thousand" with his forecast. What a joke, Stachak was standing in front of a map talking about the sharp line around Tiffin where the freezing rain and sleet was, while I'm looking out my window at the sleet coming down.

Bah!

posted by SensorG on Feb 02, 2011 at 08:33:47 am     #  

I can't say what the main roads look like but I'm snowed in until I get my snowblower out. That snow is heavy as hell, it's going to take some work to clear. My dog is in heaven though.

posted by hunkytownsausage on Feb 02, 2011 at 08:43:40 am     #  

I can't see my street. If it weren't for my mailbox, I wouldn't be able to tell where my front yard ends and the street begins.

posted by mom2 on Feb 02, 2011 at 08:49:24 am     #  

My solution to fix my un- startable snow blower, to toss it into a pine tree didn’t work. Hand shoveling turned out to be my day’s workout. Now I feel better!

posted by Offshore on Feb 02, 2011 at 08:54:57 am     #  

This storm isnt much compared to 1978, but hats off to the Toledo city plowing crews.

I don't know about other areas of the city, but from UT heading downtown they have done a great job clearing the roads.

posted by 6th_Floor on Feb 02, 2011 at 09:01:34 am     #  

I don't believe it. No way we're getting 18+ inches of snow. This morning, the TV weather folks were all saying 6 to 12, and I'll bet it's closer to 6.

posted by Anniecski on Jan 31, 2011 at 09:51:48 am

Ahem

posted by Anniecski on Feb 02, 2011 at 09:12:21 am     #  

I don't think we're going to get 18+ inches either. However, to be fair, the forecast was for that volume of snow by Thursday, and its still Wednesday.

posted by mom2 on Feb 02, 2011 at 09:27:04 am     #  

"Oh well, level 3 means I'm working from home today."

My wife has been working this morning. But it's normal for her to start working at home around 5:00 to 6:00 a.m. before going to the office. Of course, no office today. But a client in another city wants something today, and the client does not give a damn about our little weather issue in Toledo. No excuses will be accepted. Yeah, if you're in the information processing business, and you have your work laptop at home, and you have electricity, an Internet connection, and a cell phone, then no day off from work because Level 3 closed the building. But that's fine. Beats the olden days when working at home meant lugging a terminal and a modem from work.

It does appear that we got around six inches of new accumulation since about 5:00 p.m. yesterday, but it's hard to tell for sure because of the blowing and drifting that occurred before Midnight. Some ice pellets fell before Midnight, but we had a significant period of sleet or ice pellets from around 1:00 to 3:00 a.m. It got noisy at times when the gusting winds drove the pellets into the windows. The ice pellet accumulation made shoveling heavy this morning. If it had been all snow, then we probably would have doubled the snowfall we got. The weight of the ice pellet accumulation, however, may cut down on the blowing snow. It's snowing nicely now.

I spent more time shoveling for wildlife than for humans. I cleared areas in the front yard for our mutt. I cleared areas in the backyard for the juncos and the squirrels. The bird feeders are busy this morning. Goldfinches and Pine Siskins crowd the thistle socks. The Red-breasted Nuthatch, a fast-moving sprite, hauls away sunflower oilers. I heard a Northern Cardinal sing briefly this morning. The first signs of the spring bird migration will begin in our area in two or three weeks with blackbirds, robins, and some raptors on the move. In early March at Irwin Prairie at dusk, you can watch the aerial flight of the American Woodcock and listen to the Northern Spring Peepers. The first butterfly seen in March is usually the Mourning Cloak. In early March, a tiny flower blooms in our front yard, and I don't know what it is. Anyway, despite being a little locked in today, Nature's Spring is not far off.

posted by jr on Feb 02, 2011 at 09:37:01 am     #   2 people liked this

Off-topic, but I can't tell you how nice it was to read your wildlife rundown, jr. thanks!

posted by luvtoledo on Feb 02, 2011 at 09:48:09 am     #   1 person liked this

(PS -- "Off-topic" = my remarks, not your wildlife rundown.)

posted by luvtoledo on Feb 02, 2011 at 09:49:17 am     #  

On one of the news stations this morning, they said that TPD is ticketing people today for driving during a Level 3. Just curious, does anybody on here know anybody who's ever gotten a ticket during a Level 3? I always thought it was a myth :)

posted by dell_diva on Feb 02, 2011 at 10:11:40 am     #   1 person liked this

Nope it's not a myth. Got a Ticket for just that in my younger years when my buddies and I thought it would be fun to go out and mess around in the snow.

It's not always that the roads are bad either. They sometimes go to a level 3 just to keep people and cars out of the way, so they can clean up the mess faster.

posted by lfrost2125 on Feb 02, 2011 at 10:45:45 am     #   1 person liked this

Forgot to add that we have almost 9 inches here. After today's snow we'll probably have 11 or 12 inches.

posted by lfrost2125 on Feb 02, 2011 at 10:47:17 am     #  

Friend of mine got stopped one time during a level 3. He was going to the grocery store. Cop told him to go home. Just a warning. I think its a judgement call by the police whether you get a ticket or not.

posted by bolt98 on Feb 02, 2011 at 10:57:22 am     #  

Level 2: Wood, Fulton, and Henry counties

Level 3: Lucas and Ottawa counties

Here are a few still photos from around 11:00 a.m. from the frequently updated ODOT road cams :

I-280 North Approach @ Veterans Glass City Skyway Bridge Looking South

I-475 @ SR-25 Looking North

I-475 @ Corey Road Looking West

SR-2 - Airport Highway @ Spring Meadows East Looking East

Central Avenue @ Percentum Road Looking West

posted by jr on Feb 02, 2011 at 11:15:11 am     #   2 people liked this

I just ordered in Chinese, later tonight is pizza :)

We are having a movie marathon. Out in our area, it's nice atm. The road is plowed, the snow is pristine. All the trees are gently dusted like something out of a painting. Later on I might go for a walk or build a snow fort with the kids.

posted by OhioKimono on Feb 02, 2011 at 12:32:25 pm     #  

JR: I think your tiny flower is a crocus. Main Lady has some in her front yard, so I'll ask for a confirmation.

My brother got Mom a bird feeder for Christmas and she loaded it and put it up, along with some kind of thing called a thistle sock which also has bird feed in it. Thistle seeds, I guess. These little birds really flock around it; it has six perches and sometimes there's a waiting line.

Mom also put up some suet which the woodpeckers like. I've been able to identify three woodpeckers: Hairy, Downy and Red Headed. I guess there's a flicker that comes around as well.

Is there a good site that helps identify birds in the Sylvania area?

posted by madjack on Feb 02, 2011 at 12:35:49 pm     #   1 person liked this

Your little early flower does indeed look to be species crocus jr. They are smaller and more delicate than the hybird giant Dutch crocus. A carpet of these beauties under a leafless tree in late winter is a sight to behold. If you don't mow the foliage down, by the time the tree leafs out the crocus bulb leaves have gotten enough sun to feed the bulb for next year and the cycle repeats. They will spread nicely if they arent mowed too soon.

posted by holland on Feb 02, 2011 at 01:14:44 pm     #  

Just got a WTOL text alert that Lucas County is downgraded to Level 2.

posted by mom2 on Feb 02, 2011 at 01:21:10 pm     #  

We received about a foot over the two storms here in West Toledo - I was using a yardstick to meaure, but the drifting and blowing is making an accurate measurement sketchy.

posted by historymike on Feb 02, 2011 at 01:23:42 pm     #  

The wind has picked up in Maumee.

posted by Molsonator on Feb 02, 2011 at 02:04:50 pm     #  

I feel gypped.

posted by SensorG on Feb 02, 2011 at 02:10:01 pm     #  

Having just come in from digging out my car, I can safely say that while this isn't the worst storm I've ever experienced, it's the worst storm I've experienced in the 7+ years I've been in my house. I have run out of places to put the snow and I still don't have it as clear as I'd like it. The sunshine that was here a little while ago was helpful in getting the hill at the end of my driveway down to pavement, but I could use a little more!

posted by valbee on Feb 02, 2011 at 02:16:51 pm     #  

A plow went down my street right after midnight Wednesday morning. I was shocked, I tell you.

posted by GuestZero on Feb 02, 2011 at 02:40:49 pm     #  

Yeah, the plows hit my street quite early too, GZ. Thankfully I have a snowblower (my wife surprised me with one this year) so digging out my driveway and those of my two elderly neighbors was much easier. Still, even the snowblower had some trouble with the mountains at the end of the driveway from the plow truck discharge.

posted by historymike on Feb 02, 2011 at 02:43:03 pm     #  

Pic from Chicago

Source: http://www.wgntv.com/weather/chibrknews-lake-shore-drive-closed-due-to-blizzard-20110201,0,1675125.story

posted by INeedCoffee on Feb 02, 2011 at 03:24:08 pm     #  

^^^Now that's a Level 3 emergency! Maybe a Level 7!

posted by oldhometown on Feb 02, 2011 at 03:50:18 pm     #   1 person liked this

I hear that Chicago got two feet of snow!

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_KxT3bZCpsqw/TQVX1dPKloI/AAAAAAAAWuY/e-rFiGH0M3Y/s1600/two_feet_of_snow.jpg

posted by SensorG on Feb 02, 2011 at 03:55:04 pm     #   1 person liked this

Just went out to shovel - that stuff is HEAVY!!!

posted by Ryan on Feb 02, 2011 at 05:55:40 pm     #   1 person liked this

From my keyboard to Gods ears. Two guys just came by to ask if I wanted my driveway shoveled!!!

posted by Ryan on Feb 02, 2011 at 06:23:15 pm     #  

"My problem is that they blew the forecast so bad, people might not listen next time, causing more issues."

With the photo INeedCoffee posted above, I don't think they listened this time in Chicago.

Maybe the lack of warning is to blame. The public only had 48 to 72 hours advance notice with this storm. The National Weather Service needs to improve its technology.

Or maybe the Chicago snow lurked behind a big tree, and it ambushed the motorists. The drivers never saw it coming.

posted by jr on Feb 02, 2011 at 06:33:07 pm     #  

Or JR, this was the 10th "big one" of the season and the residence tuned out...

posted by SensorG on Feb 02, 2011 at 06:36:25 pm     #  

Agreed with Ryan that this was some heavy-arse snow. Even with a snowblower it took quite a few hours to clear several driveways, and the areas where the plows buried the driveways were a real workout.

posted by historymike on Feb 02, 2011 at 07:27:40 pm     #  

Chicago people are their own special kind of stupid. But then, without them we wouldn't need to get the National Guard involved, and emergency vehicles could go to real emergencies.

posted by madjack on Feb 02, 2011 at 07:29:31 pm     #  

There was a lot of snow, but not "heavy" and wet. It was pretty much powder, just plenty of it. I couldn't get it to stick together to make a snowball.

posted by hockeyfan on Feb 02, 2011 at 07:33:16 pm     #  

I think we all got something different because in Point Place my driveway was only maybe 5 inches deep, but very heavy. No powder around these parts, can make ice balls galore though.

posted by Ryan on Feb 02, 2011 at 07:56:28 pm     #  

Must be location related because I'm in west toledo and it was mostly a powder like snow. I wouldn't want to see another snowfall like this though.

posted by hockeyfan on Feb 02, 2011 at 07:57:31 pm     #  

"Always remember that a true weather-emergency kits contains a loaded pistol, recently cleaned and ready to grab, cock and fire.

! posted by GuestZero on Jan 31, 2011 at 11:41:08 pm # + "

The only time I ever had someone try to pull my door open,(twice, actually), was in the Winter of 1978. The streets were choked with "walkers", and I wasn't going to become one of them. Thankfully my 4wd left 'em nice and frosty, and I didn't have to get more serious than that.

posted by Wulf on Feb 02, 2011 at 07:58:56 pm     #   1 person liked this

^^^^^^^

Yep, same here in South Toledo. Not very deep, but heavy as hell. Clearing the drivelway with a shovel was a real pain. My shoulders are going to be killing tomorrow. If I would have known how heavy it was, I would have just given the guy plowing the neighbors' driveway $20 and been done with it.

posted by Ace_Face on Feb 02, 2011 at 07:59:49 pm     #  

I guess it depends on where it fell, because ours was definitely heavy, wet snow. I had no problem making snowballs either. I'm still kicking myself for not making a snowman earlier when the temperature wasn't too bad yet.

Did you have sleet last night, hockeyfan? Maybe that was the difference. We had a LOT of sleet and a little freezing rain at about 2 a.m.

posted by valbee on Feb 02, 2011 at 08:03:46 pm     #  

I think it was a heavy "snow" not because of a warm temperature but because of the significant ice pellet accumulation that fell after Midnight, which weighted down the fluffy snow that fell before Midnight. The tiny ice pellets lowered our total snowfall, and it kept ice from accumulating on wires and trees.

posted by jr on Feb 02, 2011 at 08:14:05 pm     #  

We had major sleet from at least 8 on. You could here it from inside it was so loud.

posted by Ryan on Feb 02, 2011 at 08:43:48 pm     #  

I think we had a little sleet. There was a loud "crunch" walking in the snow, but I didn't find it heavy like the really wet snow we had last year.
As the posts show, there was a wide range of snow types in just this area alone. Heavy, wet snow just is brutal to shovel and move, no matter how far.

posted by hockeyfan on Feb 02, 2011 at 10:45:15 pm     #  

Odd how much variation there apparently was in relatively short distances. I'm in West Toledo, and when I was digging out, I noticed the cars had very little ice on them, just a fine coating on the side facing west.

posted by JeepMaker on Feb 03, 2011 at 09:19:46 am     #  

Ugh, the snow and slush in our driveway yesterday was so heavy that we broke our shovel. Broke it!

If anyone's out shopping in South Toledo today and can verify a place that's got snow shovels in stock, I'd love the heads-up.

posted by jmleong on Feb 03, 2011 at 11:07:01 am     #  

I think we've had more snow today than we got during the "blizzard" a couple of days ago. Of course this is much, much lighter...

posted by SensorG on Feb 05, 2011 at 04:25:08 pm     #  

This is too much snow for me. I think we're going to limp toward spring this year because we're going to get a lot more snow than usual.I am ready for spring. I can't wait to start my garden. I'm already ordering stuff from the Internet. If you don't get your orders in by February on some vegetables that are hard to find locally (which I missed out on last year), you're screwed.

posted by bikerdude on Feb 05, 2011 at 05:46:30 pm     #  

Me too, bikerdude! We ordered some seeds a few weeks ago for scarlet runner beans and cauliflower. My boyfriend has started plotting our boxes on graph paper and now we're deciding what we want to put where. Anything to take my mind off the fact that I can barely get into my driveway right now.

posted by valbee on Feb 05, 2011 at 06:49:59 pm     #  

I went outside to shovel at 5:30 p.m., and I measured six inches of new snow on the hood of my car and on the front sidewalks that were clear before Saturday. Like SensorG said, the snow is way lighter than the glacier from mid-week. No wind here in the city, so the fluffy snow accumulated well on just about everything. The snow looked nice coming down, and it looks nice now piled around. It's great when not driving in it. Our total snow depth is probably around 16 inches.

The Saturday snow began around 9:30 a.m. The Saturday morning National Weather Service forecast called for 2 to 3 inches of snow. By mid-day, the NWS issued a Winter Weather Advisory until 8:00 p.m., and they upped the snowfall prediction to 3 to 5 inches. We had nearly four inches by 2:00 p.m., and it continued to snow hard for much of the afternoon until it finally became very light snow after 5:00 p.m.

posted by jr on Feb 05, 2011 at 07:28:11 pm     #  

I'm in Sylvania Township, and I make it an additional six inches on the ground.

Note that the weather nitwit predicted one to three...

posted by madjack on Feb 05, 2011 at 07:58:03 pm     #  

And... my brand new snowblower decided to give up the ghost. I think the carburetor is farked somehow, and after 90 minutes of banging my knuckles tearing apart the engine, I decided to stop cussing and grab the shovel. Six inches of new snow was my estimate, too.

posted by historymike on Feb 05, 2011 at 08:17:17 pm     #  

We are seriously running out of places to put snow. (Yes, we replaced our shovel.)

Some of the piles alongside our driveway are nearly as tall as me. Our poor foster dog keeps getting his tie-out wrapped around them.

I hear more is on the way, too. :(

posted by jmleong on Feb 06, 2011 at 08:47:23 am     #  

Nooooooooooooooooooo! Try pottying a puppy with 2-1/2 inch legs! Don't think we're cruel. She actually loves being outside, even in the snow. She's just little in size, not in attitude, and we keep her trips outside very short.

We definitely got six inches of new stuff in our driveway. How DOES the weather station at the airport continually get snowfall readings so out of sync with what most people actually experience?

posted by holland on Feb 06, 2011 at 10:31:09 am     #  

"How DOES the weather station at the airport continually get snowfall readings so out of sync with what most people actually experience?"

Because they probably need to upgrade their stuff out there and they're not in as close to the lake as Toledo.

posted by anonymouscoward on Feb 06, 2011 at 11:28:55 am     #  

That's probably true about equipment. I'm 5 miles from the airport due east down Airport Highway. In the thirty plus years I've lived here the precip I measure is almost never in sync with the Airport's weather station readings. I swear their's is under an awning or against the side of a bulding or something.

posted by holland on Feb 06, 2011 at 11:51:08 am     #  

Maybe I'm just getting old, but this is the worst winter I remember since the brutal ones of late 70's--'77/'78 in particular. And back then I wasn't a homeowner and had apt. complex people do all the cleanup...

posted by McCaskey on Feb 06, 2011 at 02:42:49 pm     #  

"And... my brand new snowblower decided to give up the ghost. I think the carburetor is farked somehow, and after 90 minutes of banging my knuckles tearing apart the engine, I decided to stop cussing and grab the shovel."

Man, that sucks, Historymike. Nothing is more frustrating that trying to start those suckers and they won't start. I'd return it. What brand is it, if you don't mind me asking? I've sworn off MTD's. I've had them all my life, and they just break down more than I'm comfortable with. Good luck.

posted by bikerdude on Feb 06, 2011 at 05:59:46 pm     #  

I've had to bring up old skills in snow clearing, like the snowplow push, the energy-conserving sidethrow, and of course snowpile management in order to get those mounds high without collapsing.

I still feel like I've gone a few rounds with Tyson, however. I've been finding myself forced to shovel out parking spaces in the street when I go visiting friends. Pain that's days-old crawls across my shoulders and down my ribcage. Waaaah!

posted by GuestZero on Feb 07, 2011 at 01:35:15 am     #  

"this is the worst winter I remember since the brutal ones of late 70's--'77/'78 in particular."

It reminds me of that storm as well, especially the steep snow banks. I don't know if I can find a place in my yard to put the snow if we have another storm.

posted by gemini on Feb 08, 2011 at 07:20:41 pm     #