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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1058
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1007 AM CDT FRI JUN 08 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LOWER MI...EXTREME NERN INDIANA AND NRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY

VALID 081507Z - 081600Z

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
NRN OH AND SERN LOWER MI...AND PERHAPS EVEN EXTREME NERN INDIANA
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

A FAST EWD MOVING COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS EXTREME WRN LOWER MI
INTO NWRN INDIANA AND WILL MOVE THROUGH EWD ACROSS LOWER MI AND INTO
OH THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND
SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. STRONG AND
MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE
SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FAST MOVING LINE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY.
A WW LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED BY 16Z.

..IMY.. 06/08/2007


ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 369
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHEAST INDIANA
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OHIO
LAKE ERIE
LAKE HURON

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1140 AM UNTIL 700
PM EDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF FORT WAYNE INDIANA TO 55 MILES NORTH OF YOUNGSTOWN
OHIO. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
D4: Thu, May 24, 2007 - Fri, May 25, 2007 D7: Sun, May 27, 2007 - Mon, May 28, 2007
D5: Fri, May 25, 2007 - Sat, May 26, 2007 D8: Mon, May 28, 2007 - Tue, May 29, 2007
D6: Sat, May 26, 2007 - Sun, May 27, 2007 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC) AY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0403 AM CDT MON MAY 21 2007

VALID 241200Z - 291200Z

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY...MAY 26TH...FROM PARTS OF THE
LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION...

MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE
AMPLIFIED EARLY WEEK UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY
THE WEEKEND. STRONGER WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN TIER STATES. AND...IN THE WAKE OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PROGGED LIFT INTO THE EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES THIS COMING
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE IS PROGGED TO
EVOLVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS WEEK...BEFORE
ACCELERATING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.
LATEST GFS/MREF AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
FAIRLY STRONG WAVE ALONG POLAR FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A RETURN
FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF FLATTENING
EASTERN RIDGE. IN MODERATELY STRONG AND SHEARED MEAN FLOW
REGIME...DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BROAD AREA OF DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL.

..KERR.. 05/21/2007