Article source for : Michigan presidential primaries may be moved to January 15
On August 22, the Michigan state Senate voted to move Michigan's Democrat and Republican presidential primaries to January 15. Some opposition to this plan exists among Democrats in the Michigan House. The state House may vote on the bill next week. Governor Granholm has already stated she would sign the bill if it passes the House.
At issue for Michigan is whether to hold a primary or a caucus on January 15. Politics points to a primary favoring Hillary Clinton while a caucus benefits Edwards. Republicans don't seem to care how the vote is held.
Also at issue is the cost to taxpayers if a primary is held. A primary causes a much larger voter turnout than a caucus. The cost of an early Michigan primary could be $10 million.
If Michigan supports a January 15 primary/caucus, then Iowa and New Hampshire may move up their elections with an Iowa caucus possibly occurring in late December. National Democrat leaders will meet this weekend to _"sort it all out."_
* Aug 22 "CQPolitics.com":http://www.cqpolitics.com/2007/08/iron_fist_in_michigans_mitten.html
* Aug 22 "NY Times":http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/08/22/behind-the-michigan-primary-moves/
* Aug 22 "WaPo":http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2007/08/22/michigan_moves_ahead_on_primar.html
* Aug 22 "Detroit Free Press":http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070822/NEWS06/70822039
* Aug 22 "KTIV":http://www.ktiv.com/News/index.php?ID=16235 - Iowa
* Aug 23 "Detroit News":http://detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070823/POLITICS01/708230404&theme=Politics-President
* Aug 23 "Daily Kos":http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2007/8/23/123358/905
* Aug 23 "Radio Iowa":http://www.radioiowa.com/gestalt/go.cfm?objectid=930B6487-DCDC-9A50-C68217887290409E
* *Aug 25, 2007 'sort it out' Update:* "See below":http://toledotalk.com/cgi-bin/tt.pl/article/3445/Michigan_presidential_primaries_may_be_moved_to_January_15#DNC_threatens_Florida
h2. CQPolitics
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Michigan’s Republican-controlled state Senate on Wednesday passed "legislation":http://www.legislature.mi.gov/documents/2007-2008/billengrossed/Senate/pdf/2007-SEBS-0624.pdf [pdf] that would move the state’s presidential primaries for both parties to Jan. 15 — a day after the current date set for the Iowa caucuses and a week before the expected Jan. 22 primary for New Hampshire, though the chaotic “front-loading” of the nominating campaign has both of those dates very much in flux.
The Michigan proposal, which passed the state Senate by a vote of 21-17, would push the primary six weeks ahead of its originally scheduled date of Feb. 26, and leapfrog the Feb. 5 threshold both major national parties have set for most states to begin holding presidential primaries and caucuses. The Michigan action came, coincidentally, a day after Arizona joined the pileup of nearly 20 states that will or appear likely to hold their primaries and caucuses exactly on Feb. 5.
The fact that the Michigan bill also must pass the Democratic-controlled state House, however, lends some serious doubt about its prospects for enactment. The effort is largely a venture of the state’s Republicans: The state Democratic Party has scheduled a separate caucus for Feb. 9 to comply with Democratic National Committee (DNC) rules. State Democratic Party Chairman Mark Brewer opposes the proposed shift to Jan. 15 and called the state Senate’s action “unfortunate.”
Michigan Democratic Party spokesman Jason Moon told CQPolitics.com that the party was in negotiations with the state Republican Party about holding a joint primary. This, if it were to occur, would replace the Democrats’ planned caucuses.
Democratic Gov. Jennifer M. Granholm has indicated she would sign a bill to move up the primary if it passes the state House, which could consider the bill as early as next week, according to the Detroit News.
Among the states that preceded Arizona onto the Feb. 5 roster are California and New York, which hold serious sway in the nominating process because of their significant delegate allocations. Nineteen states total, including Arizona, are expected to hold at least one party’s primary or caucus on Feb. 5, according to the National Association of Secretaries of State.
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h2. NY Times
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Can we peek just for a moment under the rock that is Michigan politics? The state’s two parties are defying their national parties and setting off tremors in Iowa and New Hampshire. But that’s not what’s grabbed our attention. Rather, it’s Michigan’s internal debate over whether to hold a caucus or a primary.
The state Senate estimates that a primary, for both parties, would draw more than 2 million voters to the polls. It estimates that a caucus, on the other hand, might draw just 100,000 Democrats and, incredibly, just 4,000 to 6,000 Republicans. That’s obviously just a fraction of the state’s eligible voters, of whom 4.8 million voted in the 2004 presidential race.
On the Democratic side, those behind Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, who is running ahead in the polls in Michigan, want a primary. They think a wide-open process would encourage first-time voters, including the women and minorities who support Mrs. Clinton, to come out and vote for her. Plus, Mrs. Clinton will have plenty of money to run as many ads on television as she wants.
Those backing former Senator John Edwards prefer a caucus. Why? Mr. Edwards’s campaign manager is David Bonior, the former Michigan Congressmen, who has strong ties to organized labor. The unions can be highly influential in a caucus, which depends largely on ground organization. They would have much more control over a caucus, which is too complicated and time-consuming for the average person to attend.
As for the Republicans, they’re along for the ride. They say they’d prefer a primary, but they have a contingency plan: a presidential preference convention. This is a really arcane, multi-stage process that relies on delegates, essentially shutting out the average voter.
The biggest force behind the Michigan move is Democratic Senator Carl Levin, who has been irritated for years that a big state like his has been taking a back seat to smaller states. Iowa and New Hampshire get all the attention, in addition to millions of dollars from the campaigns and the media, who keep their restaurants and hotels full, their rental cars on the road and their television stations flush with cash from ads.
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h2. WaPo
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Political leaders in Iowa and New Hampshire, who jealously guard their status as the first presidential contests every four years, have vowed to respond by moving their own voting up as far as necessary to retain their position. That could mean that voting will begin in 2007 for the 2008 presidential election. The uncertainty has scrambled the political calculations for strategists in both parties as they attempt to plan for how to schedule their candidates and spend their money.
Meanwhile, the two national political parties are having little luck gaining control over the process. As in previous years, efforts to cajole or punish states is being met with indifference. In an effort to punish the Sunshine State for holding it's presidential primary earlier than the approved Feb. 5 date (Florida lawmakers moved the contest to Jan. 29), the DNC's rules committee is expected to proclaim the state off-limits to campaigning. Anyone who campaigns there would lose their delegates.
But the threat -- which is likely to be approved this Saturday -- hardly appears to be stopping the calendar insurrection among state leaders who are seeking relevance in the presidential nominating process. Michigan officials have said they are less concerned with sanctions from the party and more interested in making sure the candidates confront issues important to the people in their state.
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h2. Detroit Free Press
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U.S. Rep. Bart Stupak is cautioning against [a Jan 15 primary], saying it just costs too much with the state in a fiscal crisis. Specifically, he said in a letter to Gov. Jennifer Granholm and state Democratic Party leader Mark Brewer, it could cost the state $10 million-$12 million for a primary. Under the current party caucus format, the state parties cover the cost. Changing to a primary paid for by the state, he said, “would be fiscally irresponsible."
The only way he said he could support a move to a primary, he said, is “if either the presidential candidates or state party organizations agreed to pay for the cost of the primary, not the taxpayers.”
Stupak, a Menominee Democrat, has endorsed former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards in the race for the Democratic nomination. A primary is expected to help other candidates, including New York Sen. Hillary Clinton and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, while Edwards’ strength among organized labor is believed to give him a leg up in a caucus, where activists would be expected to turn out in numbers.
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h2. KTIV
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For 30 years, the Iowa Caucuses have been the "first in the nation." But, plans by South Carolina and Michigan to move their primaries into the first two weeks of January, threaten Iowa's contest. National Democratic leaders meet, this weekend, to sort it all out.
"These campaigns are too long." That's Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley expressing his frustration about possible plans to move the Iowa Caucuses to December to maintain their "first in the nation" status. "I regret that we have to think about it, and that we're being pushed," Grassley said. "I'm thinking about the good of the state, but the good of the country. It's too much having these campaigns so close together in January and February in the various states."
But, Grassley admits the caucuses have to be first... even if it means a move to December. That's a sentiment echoed by Congressman Steve King. "We need to stay first in the nation," King says. "And, if we have to have it next week, then that's what we'll do."
King says the Iowa Caucuses give candidates, who aren't "household names," a chance at the presidency. "Abe Lincoln could never have been president in the system we have today," King said. "And, that's the kind of talent that we may be missing if we lose this caucus that we have in Iowa.
Here's how it stands, right now. The Iowa Caucuses are Monday, January 14th. That's followed by the South Carolina Republican primary, and the Nevada Caucuses, on Saturday, January 19th. Just three days later, New Hampshire holds its primary. But, because South Carolina moved its Republican primary to the 19th, New Hampshire could move their primary from the 22nd to the 15th. That's just one day after the Iowa Caucuses. South Carolina's primary for Democrats is set for January 29th... the same day as Florida's Democratic primary. But, Michigan could make a move into January, too. Today, that state's Senate passed a bill moving Michigan's primary to January 15th. But, the state House still has to approve the measure.
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h2. Detroit News
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Democrats joined with Republicans in voting 35-0 for an amendment to the bill pushing up Michigan's date to Jan. 15, but then Democrats voted against final passage of the bill, saying there are technical conflicts with Democratic National Committee rules. No one, however, would say exactly what those problems were.
Gov. Jennifer Granholm's spokeswoman, Liz Boyd, said "we support a primary for Michigan, but these bills do not yet meet the agreement Democrats reached last week." Asked where the legislation falls short, Boyd said: "I can't go into that."
Bill Ballenger, editor of the Inside Michigan Politics newsletter, believes the so-called conflicts between the Senate bill and the national Democratic Party are less about rules than about Democratic presidential supporters.
A primary format is seen as beneficial to New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, who has fared well in polls here, but not so advantageous for former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, who is running behind. Edwards is seen as the favorite son of key labor groups, including the United Auto Workers, which exert more control over the traditional party caucuses.
And Illinois Sen. Barack Obama could choose to bypass the state entirely, especially if its delegates are cut; his support among Democratic movers and shakers in the state is generally less prominent than that for Edwards and Clinton. Also, many Democrats were put off by a speech he delivered in Detroit earlier this year in which he criticized the domestic auto industry.
Levin has said he favors a Jan. 8 primary to "blow up" an unfair presidential nominating system that favors Iowa and New Hampshire. Ed Sarpolus, a Lansing pollster and political consultant, said Democratic opposition to the early primary bills "comes from labor, which doesn't want to lose control of the process."
The picture on the Republican side is less complicated, at least in the case of a primary. The Republican National Committee's rules aren't as punitive for states that violate its scheduling mandates, and Republican sources in Michigan and Washington suggest it's far less likely that the Republican convention would refuse to seat delegates from rule-breaking states.
The primary would cost state taxpayers about $10 million, but Brown said that would be recouped by money poured into the state by the presidential camps and the hordes of staff, volunteers and media they bring with them.
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h2. kos
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Too bad state Democrats are standing in the way. Still, Democratic Gov. Jennifer Granholm has said she would sign the bill into law.
This would force New Hampshire to move its primary up to the first week of January, and leave Iowa out in the cold -- state law requires its contest to be one week before any other contest, but ALSO take place the same year of the presidential election. So something will have to give. It'll have the unenviable task of scheduling its caucuses either during hangover time post-New Years, or around Christmas.
And what about DNC threats to not seat Florida and Michigan delegates? Not going to happen, as Jerome "says":http://www.mydd.com/story/2007/8/22/10242/9136.
Hopefully we can find a real solution to the primary calendar problem for the 2012 cycle that acknowledges and reflects the diversities of our country and gives more Americans, not just those in Iowa and New Hampshire, a say in their politics.
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h2. Radio Iowa
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Iowa governor Chet Culver hopes the national Democratic party will back Iowa this weekend when it comes to the state holding onto its first in the nation caucus status. Culver says Iowa has done everything right, and he believes the rules need to be followed. He says every four years there's a process and Iowa worked with that process and got the votes from the rules and bylaws committee to be the first in 2008.
Culver says he believes there will be consequences for those states who try to break the rules, "otherwise states would just pick a date and have their caucus or primary, and you'd have no formal process, and that just doesn't make any sense."
Culver says the number one concern he has is that Iowa has the first caucus in the nation, which is scheduled for January 14th. He says they hope to keep that date, but what happens with other states is up to Democratic Party national chairman Howard Dean. Culver wants to see the leaders stick to the rules that were approved for 2008. "Most importantly, I hope that there's a show for states like Iowa and New Hampshire, so that we can maintain our traditional leadoff roles," Culver says.
South Carolina's Republican Party moved its contest ahead -- starting talk of states moving their primaries ahead also, and forcing Iowa to look at moving the caucuses to stay in first place. State law requires Iowa's Caucuses to be held eight days ahead of any other state's contest.
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h2. DNC threatens Florida
Aug 25, 2007 stories:
"TheHill.com":http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/dnc-tells-florida-dems-to-change-primary-plan-2007-08-25.html :
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The Democratic National Committee (DNC) Saturday gave the Florida Democratic Party 30 days to submit a new plan for a primary or cauc us or lose all of its delegates to the nominating convention. Adopting a resolution offered by committeeman Ralph Dawson of New York, the DNC’s rules and bylaws committee all but ignored the pleas of the Florida party and voted almost unanimously to strip the state of all its delegates unless it offers a new plan that meets DNC rules.
The state ran afoul of the committee’s new primary rules when it decided to adhere to a new state law that moved the primary to Jan. 29, in violation of the DNC rule preventing unapproved states from holding a nominating contest before Feb. 5.
In adopting the harsh penalties, the rules committee appeared to be sending a message to other state parties and legislatures such as Michigan, that any moves ahead of the Feb. 5 window would be met with stiff penalties and little to no leniency. The Michigan legislature and state parties have in recent days appeared poised to move its primary to Jan. 15.
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br. "AP":http://apnews.myway.com/article/20070825/D8R89GUG0.html
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Several DNC officials said before the vote that they wanted to take the strong action against Florida to discourage Michigan, New Hampshire and other states that were considering advancing their contests in violation of party rules.
New Hampshire's secretary of state says he may move up the state's primary, but for now the party has submitted a plan for Jan. 22, with the notation that the date is subject to change. Michigan's Legislature has taken up a bill that would move its contest to Jan. 15, but the state party submitted a proposal that for now describes a caucus on Feb. 9.
Michigan Democratic Party chairman Mark Brewer said he hopes the ruling against Florida keeps the DNC calendar in place. "If it doesn't, we're going to move," he said.
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