Article source for : Severe weather outlook for June 4, 2011
--This page created on Thursday, June 2, 2011--
br. On Thursday, June 2, the "Storm Prediction Center":http://www.spc.noaa.gov/ predicted a slight risk of severe weather for Ohio on Saturday, June 4.
br. Related thread: [[Monitoring Severe Weather]]
br. *Update at 11:50 a.m. June 4, 2011:*
* A slight chance of severe thunderstorms "still exists":http://toledotalk.com/cgi-bin/tt.pl/article/85487/Severe_weather_outlook_for_June_4_2011#June_4_Forecasts for northwest Ohio late this afternoon and evening.
* As of 11:50 a.m. nationally, no severe weather watch boxes are in effect, and in the Midwest, no severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings are in effect.
* Radar shows a narrow line of precip stretching from southern Wisconsin to eastern and southern Iowa and then into southeastern Nebraska and down into central and eastern Kansas.
* The Storm Prediction Center has issued no mesoscale discussions today, which details the likelihood of severe weather in a particular area.
* Toledo area temps at Noon are in the mid- to upper-80s with humidity around 50%. Not as sticky as earlier in the week, but still a bit humid.
* Toledo area dew point temps are in the mid-60s. Higher dew points exist in Indiana and Illinois, especially in southern Illinois.
* If the SPC does not issue a mesoscale discussion for our region this afternoon, then the likelihood of a watch being issued is low, and thus little chance for severe weather. At most, we may get a shower or thundershower later this evening.
br. *Update 2:48 p.m. on June 4, 2011:*
* At 2:27 p.m. EDT, the SPC "issued":http://toledotalk.com/cgi-bin/tt.pl/article/85487/Severe_weather_outlook_for_June_4_2011#2_27_pm_Mesoscale_Disc a mesoscale discussion for the areas of northern Illinois and northern Indiana to the Ohio border. The threat for severe weather is increasing in these areas and a watch may be issued soon.
* Toledo area temps are in the mid-90s!!
* Dew point temps are in the upper 60s.
* Heat indexes are around 99 degrees.
br. *Update 3:08 p.m. on June 4, 3011:*
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch "issued":http://toledotalk.com/cgi-bin/tt.pl/article/85487/Severe_weather_outlook_for_June_4_2011#Svr_Tstrm_Watch that includes the Toledo area.
* Toledo area temps: Express Airport - 93, Metcalf Airport - 97. Heat Indexes range from 97 to 104.
"Mesoscale Discussions":http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/ - Detailed analysis on areas that could receive severe weather.
h2. June 2 Forecasts
SPC two-day outlook issued on June 2, 2011:
br. Cleveland NWS Hazardous Outlook issued at 3:17 p.m. on June 2, 2011:
bq. There is a slight risk of severe weather on Saturday afternoon and evening ahead of and along a cold front moving toward the region from the northwest.
h2. June 3 Forecasts
SPC Forecast issued at 1:57 a.m. on June 3, 2011:
bq. Greatest relative total svr threat appears to be from central il to wrn/central oh near and s of front...where greatest pre-storm heating/moisture is likely.
Convective outlook for June 4.
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
br. Cleveland NWS Hazardous Outlook issued at 2:30 p.m. on June 3, 2011:
bq. There is a slight risk of severe weather Saturday afternoon and
evening ahead of and along a cold front moving toward the region
from the northwest. The main threat from the thunderstorms will be
damaging winds along with a chance for large hail.
br. Forecast issued at 6:35 p.m. on June 3, 2011:
bq. *Saturday...* Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning...then mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Warmer with highs in the upper 80s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph...becoming west 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.
bq. *Saturday Night...* Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely in the evening...then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows in the lower 60s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph...becoming north after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.
h2. June 4 Forecasts
SPC covective outlook issued at 8:44 a.m. EDT on June 4, 2011
bq. mid ms and oh vlys to lwr grt lks today through tngt...
moderate to strong instability...with sbcape aoa 3500 j/kg...should
develop this aftn along moist axis /pw aoa 1.50 in/ immediately
ahead of aforementioned front from ne ks/se neb ewd into nrn/cntrl
portions of il/ind and wrn oh. while some degree of capping will
persist...cinh is not expected to be as strong as that observed
yesterday over the upr ms vly.
bq. sctd tstms should form by early aftn along and possibly ahead of
the front as heights slowly fall on srn fringe of grt lks impulse.
w to wnwly mid lvl winds topping the upr ridge will range from
around 25 kts over the ms vly to near 40 kts over the lwr grt
lks...ample for storm sustenance/organization. combination of
strong instability and largely unidirectional deep wly flow should
support development of one or two mcss that will move mainly ese
along/ahead of front. while the main svr threat should be locally
dmgg wind...hail may also occur...especially before the storms
bq. a cluster of storms may persist well into the night in area of
stronger waa over oh/wv/wrn pa...but most of the activity should
diminish in intensity by late eve due to weakening instability and
relatively limited forcing for ascent.
br. SPC convective outlook issued at 8:44 a.m. on June 4, 2011
Chance for severe weather.
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Probability of one inch diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of a point.
br. Cleveland NWS hazardous weather outlook issued at 5:11 a.m. on June 4, 2011
bq. today and tonight.
bq. there is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms later today and
early tonight. the main risk will be for damaging winds with a
lesser risk of large hail.
bq. spotter activation may be needed.
br. Cleveland NWS forecast issued at 9:46 a.m.
bq. *This Afternoon...* Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may be severe with damaging winds and large hail. Warmer with highs in the upper 80s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph...becoming west. Chance of rain 50 percent.
bq. *Tonight...* Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Some thunderstorms may be severe with damaging winds and large hail. Lows in the lower 60s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph... Becoming north after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.
br. Excerpts from the Cleveland NWS forecast discussion issued at 11:04 a.m., June 4, 2011:
bq. a weak cold front will approach from the north today and move
through the area tonight.
bq. some storms may develop into the northern zones associated with
the front by late afternoon. but it appears that most of the
activity will occur in the evening. still looks like the best
coverage will be in central ohio. some storms may linger past
midnight particularly in the southeast zones. there will be quite
a bit of instability available with the shear somewhat marginal.
still seems reasonable to expect some of the storms to become
severe mainly in the north.
h3. 12:22 p.m. Update
SPC covective outlook updated at 12:22 p.m. EDT on June 4, 2011
bq. ...mid ms and oh vlys to lwr grt lks this afternoon and early
bq. the current mcs riding sewd atop the ridge is moving across ern le
into nwrn pa. expect the observed instability ahead of this system
to be insufficient to maintain a severe threat beyond isolated
damaging wind gusts in the near term into nwrn pa.
bq. moderate to strong instability...with sbcape aoa 3500 j/kg...is
already available s of front from nrn il into nrn ind. with the cap
nearly gone...potential for strong/severe thunderstorms will
increase by early/mid afternoon along/ahead of cold front. deep
layer shear around 30kt will be adequate for storm organization with
steep lapse rates and cape supportive of both large hail and
damaging winds. largely unidirectional deep wly flow should
support development of one or two mcss that will move mainly ese
along/ahead of front. this upscale growth could lead to a greater
wind damage threat by later this afternoon/evening.
h3. 2:27 p.m. Mesoscale Disc
SPC mesoscale discussion "issued":http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1085.html at 2:27 p.m. on June 4, 2011:
bq. areas affected...nrn il...nrn ind
bq. concerning...severe potential...watch likely
bq. upper ridge is expected to gradually flatten across the nrn oh
valley perhaps in response to srn influence of upper great lakes
shortwave trough. this flattening process should lead to a zone of
more favorable low level confluence shifting into nrn il/ind which
will be enhanced by lake mi breeze. strong sunshine has steepened
low level lapse rates across this region and a deepening boundary
layer is now more conducive for cu development along lake
breeze...per latest vis imagery. additionally...showers are
gradually increasing across sern ia into nwrn il with isolated
lightning now observed with stronger updrafts. recent hrrr model
supports robust convective initiation across nrn il/ind by 19z...and
although this may be a bit early it would seem to be supported by
latest observational trends. for this reason a severe thunderstorm
watch may be warranted soon.
h3. Svr Tstrm Watch
Statement issued at 3:08 p.m. EDT:
bq. The National Weather Service has issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch 426 in effect until 10 PM EDT this evening for the following areas
bq. In Northwest Ohio
bq. Hancock, Lucas, Ottawa, Sandusky, Seneca, Wood
br. Sunday is the one-year anniversary of the tornadoes that "hit":http://toledotalk.com/cgi-bin/tt.pl/article/59692/6510_-_Moderate_Risk_of_Severe_Weather_Today the area on June 5, 2010.